Markets finally took a breather after the Dow's historic winning streak, but the bigger story may be happening in the bond market. Treasury yields climbed back above recent ranges as oil moved higher and investors prepared for Friday's jobs report, reminding everyone that interest rates remain one of the market's biggest variables.

Geopolitics also returned to center stage after Iran and Oman outlined a potential new shipping arrangement through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices reacted immediately, but as always, we'll be watching whether this becomes another short-term headline or something that changes the inflation outlook for months ahead.

Meanwhile, capital keeps pouring into AI. Alphabet reportedly attracted more than $100 billion of demand for its latest bond offering, another reminder that investors remain eager to finance the infrastructure behind the next generation of technology. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the long-term investment in AI, robotics, and digital infrastructure continues.

Today:

📰 Bond yields climb as markets await Friday's jobs report
⛽ Oil jumps after Hormuz shipping proposal rattles energy markets
🤖 AI investment stays red-hot as Alphabet's bond deal attracts massive demand

Let's get started.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

You bought a stock. It's up 30%. You hold. You bought another. It's down 15%. You hold and hope. Most investors have no framework for selling, so they cling to winners and losers for the wrong reasons. That's expensive.

Sell when your thesis breaks, not when the stock moves. If you bought for long-term growth and fundamentals are intact, price movement doesn't matter. A missed earnings report or management capitulation does. That thesis change is your signal, not the gain or loss.

Trim winners when they grow beyond 10-15% of your portfolio. Not lack of conviction. Concentration risk. The positions that made the most money will feel the hardest to sell. That's when you need to sell some.

Cut losers when fundamentals deteriorate, not on a timeline. A worse earnings report plus worse guidance is thesis death. Sell. Don't average down thinking you get it back. If fundamentals are intact and the position is small (under 5%), hold. Sometimes thesis correctness takes years.

Write down why you own each position. When that reason no longer applies, sell. Everything else is noise.

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US stocks slipped Thursday as Treasury yields climbed and investors digested fresh labor market data alongside a proposed Iran-Oman shipping deal that could reshape oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman for a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could dramatically reshape oil transit in the region. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the deal would be finalized "if certain third parties do not obstruct this process," a clear reference to the US and Israel. Bloomberg reported the proposal includes a ban on US and Israeli ships in the strait. Brent crude jumped to $83 per barrel on the news, with higher oil prices also pushing Treasury yields upward. The 30-year yield climbed to 5.21% and the 10-year yield rose to 4.67%.

Labor market data painted a mixed picture ahead of Friday's jobs report. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported July layoffs plunged to their lowest level in two years, while first-time jobless claims ticked up slightly to 199,000 in the week of Aug. 1. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the economy to add 80,000 jobs in July, better than June's 57,000 that badly missed expectations, with the jobless rate holding steady at 4.2%. "The slowdown in the monthly employment gain reported by ADP aligns with our assumption that the labor market isn't in a period of overheating," said Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics.

Alphabet drew $115 billion in demand for a jumbo bond sale linked to the AI boom, according to Bloomberg. The massive investor appetite signals strong confidence in Google's AI leadership even as the company navigates an ongoing antitrust battle and a recent leadership shakeup in its AI division.

German energy giant RWE is walking away from US offshore wind under a $1.22 billion deal with the Trump administration. The company will abandon wind leases off New York, Louisiana, and Northern California near Humboldt, the fifth and largest such buyout this year. RWE said it will instead invest $900 million to acquire a 16% stake in a Louisiana liquefied natural gas terminal and $300 million to support natural gas turbine development. The administration has now paid out roughly $2.7 billion to steer companies away from offshore wind and into fossil fuel projects. California's 2045 offshore wind goals now hang on just two remaining leases.

Retailers are selling tariff refunds at steep discounts for quick cash infusions. American Eagle Outfitters sold $68.9 million of its tariff refund claims in exchange for just $18.6 million, while The Children's Place traded $38.2 million in claims for $25.7 million to Alnus Investors. GoPro struck a deal even before the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in February. As of the end of July, the government has returned roughly $100 billion in tariffs, representing 60% of the $166 billion collected under the IEEPA-based tariffs the Supreme Court ruled unlawful.

Sandisk stock tanked nearly 7% after the memory chip maker's revenue forecast fell short of expectations. Western Digital also dropped on concerns about AI capital requirements and monetization. The punishing earnings reactions underscore how high valuations for some AI-adjacent names have left little room for disappointment.

SpaceX stock popped early in the session but gave back most of its gains as a lockup period expired, freeing up insiders to sell their shares. The stock has struggled since its Nasdaq inclusion allowed early investors to offload positions to index funds.

Friday's jobs report will be the main event this week, with the July payroll figures expected to show improvement from June's disappointing 57,000 additions. Markets will be watching closely to see whether the "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic that's defined the labor market for months shows any signs of shifting.

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc