Hello.

Underneath the softer market we’re experiencing, the AI buildout keeps getting bigger. CoreWeave jumped 20%+ after hours on a $104 billion backlog, while Supermicro surged more than 6% after projecting up to $15.5 billion in quarterly revenue. The numbers are a reminder that companies are still pouring enormous amounts of capital into the infrastructure needed to power AI.

Meanwhile, Google’s Gemini just crossed 1 billion monthly users, showing how quickly AI is moving from an emerging technology into a mainstream product.

Today:
📰 Stocks pull back as Iran tensions rise and CPI looms
🤖 AI demand keeps accelerating across cloud, chips, and software
🚀 CoreWeave and Supermicro signal another huge AI infrastructure wave

Let's get into it.

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🤖 AI Demand Just Hit Another Record

The market spent Tuesday fixated on oil and the Fed. The more important number came after the close: the AI buildout is still getting bigger, not smaller.

AI cloud provider CoreWeave’s stock rose over 20% reported revenue of $2.58 billion, more than double a year ago, with a backlog of orders that now sits at a staggering $104 billion. Meta alone added a $21 billion commitment during the quarter, and Jane Street chipped in another $6 billion. Supermicro, which builds the servers, guided next quarter's revenue as high as $15.5 billion, well above the roughly $12 billion Wall Street expected, on the back of more than $60 billion in new orders. SMCI rose 6% in response. And Google's Gemini just crossed 1 billion monthly users, its fastest-growing product ever (though GOOG fell 3% still).

Put it together and that's demand showing up as signed contracts and shipped hardware, not slideware.

Our take: this is the abundance thesis playing out in real time, and it's why we keep saying the AI buildout is a multi-year story, not a one-quarter fad. But read the fine print. CoreWeave is carrying roughly $35 billion in debt to buy the chips, and its losses are still widening. The demand is real. So is the bill. The winners will be the ones who turn all this capex into actual cash flow, and that's the number we'll be watching next.

📰 Market Headlines

US stocks slipped Tuesday as the standoff between the US and Iran intensified, casting doubt over any near-term progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.6% as Big Tech names dragged on the broader market ahead of Wednesday's key inflation report.

All eyes turn to Wednesday's CPI report, which is expected to show inflation easing slightly despite recent oil price volatility. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Consumer Price Index to rise 3.4% in July from a year ago, down from June's 3.5% annual increase. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is expected to come in at 2.5% year-over-year. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack told Yahoo Finance on Monday that it may take more than one rate hike to rein in inflation. Traders now see roughly 50-50 odds of a 25 basis point hike in September, according to CME FedWatch.

  • A second Fed president in two days flagged inflation as the economy's top problem. Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee said inflation is the biggest issue facing the economy right now, echoing Hammack. Goolsbee doesn't vote on policy this year, so it's a signal rather than a swing vote, but a notable one coming from a usually dovish member.

Alphabet stock sank 3.6% even after Google announced that its Gemini AI assistant crossed 1 billion monthly active users, making it the company's fastest-growing product ever. Google said 63% of users speak directly to Gemini rather than typing prompts, and one in five interactions involve screen sharing or live camera feeds. Apple users make up over 100 million of the monthly active users. The milestone comes less than a month after Google reported 950 million users in its latest earnings report, but the news wasn't enough to offset broader tech weakness.

New AI infrastructure fundraising is raising eyebrows across Wall Street. Intel, Nvidia, and others are tapping capital markets to fund the buildout, renewing scrutiny into just how capital-intensive this AI race has become. CoreWeave alone has $35 billion in debt on its balance sheet to cover Nvidia GPUs and other equipment. Competition is heating up too: SpaceX has started selling excess computing capacity, and Meta is reportedly considering launching a cloud business of its own.

Iran hardened its stance on peace talks, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying there was "no possibility of restarting negotiations" under current conditions. President Trump rebuked Iran's demand for war reparations earlier this week and said he would wait for economic pressure to build on the country. Pakistan's defense minister told reporters the US and Iran were "close to some sort of arrangement," but the mixed signals kept investors on edge. Brent crude futures hovered around $89 per barrel even as oil prices climbed on supply uncertainty.

🤖 AI/Future/Tech News

🚨 Trending on Reddit

  • CoreWeave (CRWV) mentions are up over the past day. Users are bullish on the AI infrastructure play, with some expecting significant upside as demand for GPU cloud capacity continues to grow.

  • OpenAI chatter focused on financial sustainability concerns. Users noted that hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are booking unrealized gains on their OpenAI and Anthropic investments as part of quarterly earnings. Some questioned whether OpenAI can maintain its purchase commitments without additional funding, and a few speculated that competition could force token price cuts and squeeze margins further.

  • GameStop (GME) chatter remained steady as the stock closed down 1.93% at $18.79, bringing market cap to $8.4 billion. Users noted GME-WS saw a slight uptick of 1.31% to $1.55, and discussion continued around the company's strategic positioning and warrant activity.

🤫 Insider Trading

Stocks

Who bought/sold

Details

Total

Pinterest Inc ($PINS)

Director

Sold 46,875 shares @ $23.88

$1.1 million

Ball Corp ($BALL)

Officer

Sold 6,940 shares @ $63.04

$437,468

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