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- 🚂 American equities are an unstoppable freight train
🚂 American equities are an unstoppable freight train
💣 Plus, Iran bombed Jordan, killing three Americans
Wyatt from Alts
29 Jan
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📰 Market Headlines
While markets were mixed Friday, American equities saw their twelfth winning week in thirteen.
Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index came in broadly in line with expectations. The core reading, 2.6%, matched November’s print, while the PCE excluding food and energy was a bit higher at 2.9%, down from 3.2% the month prior.
The next reading, due 29th February (happy Leap Year!), will go a long way toward determining whether or not inflation is trending down enough for a Fed rate cut.
What to watch this week:
Consumer confidence on Tuesday. Estimates are 113, up three points from December, which feels off to me.
Job openings, also Tuesday. Estimated 8.7 million, down 100k from November.
Non-Farm jobs on Friday: estimates are 170k vs 183k on Kalshi. Both would be significantly lower than the December print of 216k.
The Fed meets this week, but there’s only a 1% to 2% chance of a rate cut.
Five of the Mag 7 report earnings this week - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. Both Alphabet and Microsoft hit ATHs over $3 trillion last week.
Iran bombed a US outpost in Jordan over the weekend, killing three American soldiers and wounding more than 30. Several Republican senators and representatives called for direct action against Tehran.
Gold and oil are both ticking up as Iran continues to do stupid stuff in the Middle East.
Jurgen Klopp, considered by many to be the best manager of his generation, shocked the football (soccer) world by announcing he’ll leave Liverpool FC at the end of the season.
Congrats to the Chiefs, 49ers, and Swifties everywhere. It’s on the 49ers to save us all.
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🕶️ Market Vibes
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures
😱 Fear and Greed Index
🧠 What do you think?
Will the US bomb targets inside Iran? |
🎤 What you said last time
Funny, the top two answers are basically opposites. The top response says EVs aren’t good enough, and the second top answer claims too many companies are trying to do them now.
🤷♂️ Something else
“It’s too complicated and time-consuming to charge the cars. There aren’t enough charging stations, and there is still much fear about range, not to mention EVs are still far more expensive than ICE cars. Where’s the incentive?”
“I think Tesla will be fine. Sales are soft for all EVs now, even the flashy new models from Hyundai and a dozen others. Tesla is just caught up in the overall negativity. Perhaps all the early adopters have a Tesla by now, but I know many who want one but are holding off. I think the 2025 model year will be a boom year as many big EV companies will be offering cars with the Tesla charging connector. This is a game-changer. Tesla will benefit from the charging fees (higher than for Teslas) as well as renewed interest in EVs overall. Tesla will also be out with a new lower-cost sedan, and the Cyber truck sales will grow. My Tesla shares sold off with a trailing stop-loss last month, but I'll be back in soon.”
“The novelty is gone; the realities have kicked in. Hertz selling off 20,000 Teslas, dead EVs littering cold states, can't charge, can't go far. Useless in rural areas. They are good for one thing, Close, around town driving, that's it. If Trump wins, the EV mandates and tax credits will be gone, the end of the little market there is. ”
🤼 More competition
“Tesla is running out of wealthy early adopters to buy their cars, and ICE vehicle lovers will always be ICE vehicle lovers.”
📉 The economy is slowing down
“Who can afford a new or used car at these rates and grocery prices?”
💥 EVs aren’t living up to the hype
“Early adopters have purchased their first electric car. People with more conservative views of the EV market are holding off. Obviously, competition has hurt a bit, too.”
“EVs are a great niche market. Strong competition driven by government incentives and mandates has saturated the market. As consumers realize the realistic limitation of EVs, the house of cards crumble. Tesla and legacy carriers will be the only to rise from the rubble.”
📈 Trends you need to know
Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.
While interest in joining other branches of the military is at an all-time low, the US Army recruitment juggernaut continues to roll on.
📊 Stocks
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Winners and losers
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions
Both Intel and KLA beat estimates but guided down. Shares were off 12% and 7%, respectively.
Conversely, Amex missed earnings but lifted guidance. Shares up 7%.
JetBlue says it’s planning to give up on its Spirit acquisition, which sent shares up 3.6%. Spirit nose dived on the news, down 13.4%.
T-Mobile missed on earnings but beat revenue. Shares down 3%.
Rare good news for a social media company - DB upgraded Snap to “buy” from “hold,” sending shares up 3%.
Coinbase also got an oddly-timed upgrade as Oppenheimer moved it to “outperform.” Shares up 4%.
Market movers
Levo Strauss, which just committed $170 million to a naming rights deal for the 49ers stadium, is laying off 10% to 15% of its workforce. That’s around 2,000 to 3,000 people. Shares rose 4%.
United Airlines is looking to dump Boeing in favor of Airbus.
China’s Evergrande was ordered to liquidate.
Ideas, trends, and analysis
A surprising number of retail giants are firing their CEOs, and very few are hiring or promoting women for the roles.
Big pharma is barrelling toward a costly patent cliff.
Three space companies running on fumes (get it??? CNBC has the best puns.).
Tech companies are going to be firing a lot of humans as they invest in AI.
What America’s economy could look like under a second Trump administration.
🌍 Global Perspectives
🇳🇪 🇲🇱 🇧🇫 Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have withdrawn from ECOWAS, the West African trade bloc, due to a lack of support for their ongoing coups.
🇨🇳 🇹🇼 🇺🇸 China sent dozens of military aircraft and naval vessels to Taiwan during US-China talks.
🇰🇵 Meanwhile, North Korea tested some submarine-launched cruise missiles — the second missile test in a week.
🇨🇳 China is doing more bailouts. Meanwhile, the mainland luxury goods market in China jumped 12% last year.
📊 Crypto
Bitcoin’s bounced back above $42k after sinking last week.
🧠 Errata
The seven most popular countries for Americans moving abroad. I live in one.
Is it really cheaper to travel during shoulder season?
📺 What to Watch Today
That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.
Cheers,
Wyatt
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