📈 Another ATH for the S&P

❄️ But, earnings are coming in weak

Tomorrow, options guru Benedict Maynard will tell you how to hedge these all-time highs. Make sure to subscribe if you want the full briefing.

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📰 Market Headlines

  • The S&P 500 set another record yesterday despite mixed earnings. A disappointing profit forecast from 3M helped push down the Dow.

  • Tesla, AT&T, and IBM all report earnings today. Tesla is under pressure after slipping 15% since the start of the year.

  • India's stock market is now the fourth largest in the world, overtaking Hong Kong. Its value doubled in the past four years.

  • Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley in the NH primary.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

Tesla reports Q4 earnings after the bell today.

Analysts expect:

  • Revenue of $25.87 billion, up 6.4% YoY

  • Adjusted EPS of $0.73, down 36.4% YoY

Will Tesla

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🎤 What you said last time

🪂 Jumping without a parachute is awesome.

Sorry about cropping answer two. I’ll be more concise next time.

I’m not diversifying.

“Investing for income, quality stuff, just watch prices go up and down”

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Search volume for Netflix subscriptions is up 15% YoY, with particular strength coming from Nigeria, the Philippines, and Singapore.

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Netflix smashed expectations. The streaming company added 13.1 million new subscribers, bringing it to a record-high 260.8 million members. Profits were up 19x over last year. Shares up 6.5%.

  • 3M missed revenue estimates and guided down for 2024 after a fairly tepid 2023. I expect the company to cut costs, starting with jobs, this year. Shares were down 11%.

  • Procter & Gamble beat on adjusted earnings but missed on revenue. The company came in below expectations, factoring in the Gillette write-down. Sales volume was weak globally, but the company raised prices, which gave it a boost. Shares were up 4%.

  • Macy's rejected Arkhouse and Brigade's $5.8 billion offer.

  • Verizon added 318,000 new consumer wireless retail postpaid phone customers in Q4 vs just 41,000 last year. This was the strongest result on that metric in four years. Shares rose 5%.

  • Texas Instruments threw up all over itself, missing earnings and revenue and guiding lower. Shares down 4%.

Market movers

  • Blackstone bought Tricon Residential for $3.5 billion, adding 38,000 homes in the Atlanta area.

  • Netflix is paying TKO Inc. $5 billion over ten years to bring WWE Raw onto its streaming platform. ¿ Wen Lucha Libre?

  • Jack Ma bought $50 million worth of Alibaba shares, while co-founder Jo Tsai added $151 million, sending the stock up 6%.

  • Tesla is building a mass-market EV codenamed “Redwood.” They aim to launch it in mid-2025.

  • More layoffs:

    • SAP is sacking 8,000 people, 7% of its workforce.

    • eBay is firing 1,000 employees, around 9%.

    • Paramount is probably laying off 800 people in February.

    • Abrdn, an asset manager, is axing 500 jobs.

    • Time laid off 15% of its editorial employees, roughly 30 people.

  • Blackrock upped its stake in iRobot to 17.1%, which sent the stock up 8%. The company is trading at 0.5x sales.

  • More bad news for Boeing.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

🇹🇷 🇸🇪 🇭🇺 Turkey finally approved Sweden's NATO membership bid. Hungary still hasn’t ratified the country’s application.

🇨🇳 One weird derivative that could decimate the Chinese economy.

🇮🇱 Bill Ackman is buying a 5% stake in the Israeli stock exchange.

🇹🇭 The Thai economy is in “crisis” as the government continues to slash growth estimates. Rates there are at a decade-high 2.5%.

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia jumped 25 spots in the World Bank’s Statistical Performance Indicators report.

🇰🇵 🇰🇷 After calling it an “eyesore” a few days ago, unconfirmed reports say Korean Dictator Un has demolished the Arch of Reunification, abandoning reconciliation with South Korea.

📊 Income

📊 Crypto

  • The SEC Twitter hacker used a compromised phone number to change the account's password.

  • Bitcoin bounced off its recent plummet to peak its head back above $40,000.

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

This has nothing to do with investing, but it looks awesome and is a great way to spend an afternoon teaching science to your kids (or yourself).

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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