Another war

Plus, seeking safe havens...

*past 24-hour performance

Upcoming Week:

  • Tuesday: The release of the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will provide insight into how small business owners view the economy

  • Wednesday: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will issue the September Producer Price Index (PPI), tracking inflation from the standpoint of manufacturers and wholesalers

  • Thursday: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will follow the next day. In August, prices of consumer goods rose 0.6% month-over-month. The annual rate rose to 3.7%, the second-straight increase from the near 3% low seen in June

  • Friday: Earnings season kicks off with reports from big banks and financial-sector companies

Notable Earnings:

  • Tuesday: PepsiCo. (PEP)

  • Thursday: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

  • Friday: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), BlackRock (BLK), Progressive Corp. (PROG), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), PNC Financial Services (PNC)

  • Israel-Gaza conflict: The Israeli government formally declared war Sunday and gave the green light for “significant military steps” to retaliate against Hamas for its surprise attack, as the military tried to crush fighters still in southern towns and intensified its bombardment of the Gaza Strip (AP)

  • US sending military assistance package: President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a call on Sunday that additional military assistance is "now on its way to Israel with more to follow over the coming days," according to the White House (Axios)

  • Traders seek safe havens: The dollar climbed against its major peers in early trading on Monday as currency traders got their first chance to react to a shock attack by Hamas within Israel (Yahoo)

  • And oil jumps: Although neither Israel nor Palestine are major oil producers, there are risks for production disruptions as markets will likely be worried about rippling effects to the Middle East region (Yahoo)

  • US job growth smashes expectations: The US economy added 336,000 nonfarm jobs in September, nearly double the 170,000 jobs economists had predicted; in the latest sign of accelerating economic momentum stoking a bond market selloff that is sending longer-term borrowing rates to new 16-year highs (WSJ)

  • Tesla’s bid to stoke demand: Tesla (TSLA) announced additional price cuts to its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles after seeing a decline in third-quarter deliveries (CNBC)

  • MGM hack costs: MGM Resorts International (MGM) said the recent computer hack that shut down many services at its casino hotels will reduce Q3 profit by about $100 million. Still, MGM shares finished Friday up 4.9%. (Yahoo)

  • UAW progress: The United Auto Workers president on Friday reported "significant progress" in contract talks with the Detroit Three automakers and said the union would hold off on expanding its strike for now (Axios)

  • Bristol Myers' big buy: Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) will acquire Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) in a transaction that values the oncology developer at up to $5.8 billion, the latest example of a drugmaker targeting deals to replenish revenue as top-selling products face competition from generics (WSJ)

Attack on Israel likely to boost appeal of gold: Rising geopolitical risk could see buying in assets like gold and the dollar, and potentially boost demand for U.S. Treasuries, which have been sold off aggressively. Read more »

The housing affordability problem is creating a nation of renters: This is not a post about who is to blame for low housing affordability. Instead, this is a post about trying to understand what the Fed ultimately wants and how consumers can benefit accordingly. Read more »

  • You're not going to like what comes after Pax Americana (Noahpinion)

  • A letter to my son (Porter Stansberry)

  • The degradation & humiliation of the U.S. consumer (QTR)

  • When compared to March of last year, sales of lab-grown diamond engagement rings increased by 63%, while those of real diamond engagement rings fell by 25% (CNN)

  • How the producer behind the latest ‘Exorcist’ film is making the most profitable movies in Hollywood (Fortune)

  • Are Chinese buyers bowing out of the art market? (WSJ)

Thunderclap Research is a professional investment research firm focused on understanding and profiting from market anomalies.

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