All of a sudden, it appears that markets are back in risk‑on mode.

AI chips are heating up, the Fed’s cut odds are soaring, and crypto just crossed a line nobody saw coming.

Let’s get into it.

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Markets climbed on Tuesday as investors regained confidence after a shaky start to December.

The ADP’s private payrolls just unexpectedly fell by 32,000 jobs. Lower employment means higher likelihood that the Fed will cut rates this month. While that’s positive for stocks and crypto, keep in mind that a December rate cut may already be fully priced in. Which could mean that not much would happen if rates are cut on December 9 (and that prices could fall a lot if rates are paused).

Amazon launched its new Trainium3 AI chip, claiming it’s four times faster and more energy efficient than its predecessor. The chip is part of Amazon’s push to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in AI hardware. AWS said customers could save 30–40% on compute costs using its chips, which are already being deployed by Anthropic. Amazon also said it is developing Trainium4, designed for compatibility with Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion technology.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a “code red” inside the company**, ordering teams to focus on improving ChatGPT after Google’s Gemini 3 outperformed it on benchmarks. The move delayed OpenAI’s other projects, including AI agents. Altman warned staff that Gemini’s success could create “economic headwinds” for OpenAI, which has pledged $1.4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending over the next eight years.

Anthropic has apparently tapped IPO lawyers to prepare to go public as early as next year. It appears that the AI company is racing against OpenAI to see who can IPO first; maybe that’s another reason for Altman’s “code red” (see above).

Alphabet shares outperformed peers this quarter, with investors signaling the company has overtaken OpenAI and Nvidia in the AI race. Since Gemini 3’s release, Alphabet stock has surged 30%, while Nvidia and Microsoft have lagged. Wells Fargo analysts said “AI is no longer a tide that lifts all boats,” as the market starts picking winners and losers.

Bitcoin posted its best day since May (up 11%) right after its worst day since March. Here were the three main catalysts:

Marvell Technology announced a $3.25 billion deal to acquire Celestial AI, expanding its networking portfolio amid fierce competition from Nvidia and Broadcom. Celestial will receive $1 billion in cash and 27.2 million Marvell shares. Marvell stock fell 6% after hours on the news.

Comcast is bidding to merge NBCUniversal and Warner Bros., creating a Hollywood giant spanning film, TV, and streaming. Shares of both companies jumped on the report, with Comcast up 2.6% and Warner Bros. up 3%. The deal would combine Peacock and HBO Max under one umbrella, though regulators are expected to scrutinize the merger closely.

Intel shares jumped 8.6% after reports that it will build Apple’s M-series chips starting in 2027. The move would mark Apple’s return to Intel’s foundry business after years of relying on TSMC. Intel’s 18A-P process will power the chips, signaling a major comeback for its manufacturing arm.

Eventbrite soared 78% pre-market after agreeing to a $500 million buyout by Italian tech conglomerate Bending Spoons. The $4.50-per-share deal represents an 82% premium and will take the company private in 2026. Bending Spoons has been on an acquisition spree, recently closing deals for Vimeo and AOL.

American Eagle stock surged 15% after raising its holiday forecast on strong third-quarter results. The retailer now expects comparable sales to grow 8–9% this quarter, far above expectations. Aerie brand drove most of the gains, with sales up 13%, while its celebrity campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce helped boost brand awareness.

The collectible card market hit $3.79 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $7.17 billion by 2032, growing at an 8.3% annual clip as millennials returned to the hobby with higher disposable incomes and nostalgia-driven purchasing power. Investment-minded collectors treated rare cards as alternative assets, prompting authentication companies to expand operations for condition-verified premium pieces.

Women's sports viewership exploded 89% this past season, driving manufacturers to launch dedicated product lines like trading cards featuring female athletes, tapping into an underserved market segment with strong purchasing power.

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc