🍎 Apple's Chinese tire fire

🦹‍♂️ Meanwhile, a Bond villian called in a bomb threat to a Tesla plant

I fly back to Spain today, so we’ll be back on track with normal delivery of these guys tomorrow, all going well.

Thanks for your patience.

This is fine.

The top 5 stocks for 2024 (from investing legend Louis Navellier)

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📰 Market Headlines

*past 24-hour performance

  • Tech giants led the market downturn yesterday; all major indexes fell about 1%.

    • Apple's sales plunged in China by 24%.

    • Tesla's Berlin factory shut down after an attempted firebombing. Shares are at their lowest in nearly 2 years.

    • Facebook, Instagram, and Threads all went down for a while.

  • Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high of $68,869, then crashed hard down 11%. It’s around $66k at publishing.

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress today. Markets will be looking for any hint of change in the Fed's rate cut plans.

    • “The message very much is not going to be ‘mission accomplished,’ but ‘we’ve made a lot of progress, we anticipate rate cuts are coming,’” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

🕶️ Market Vibes

A big call by Apollo saying the Fed will cut rates zero times this year.

Here are my current open positions on Kalshi.

As you can see, I’ve been bearish on rate cuts for some time, and it’s paying off now. Also, it’s now been widely covered that the new Nintendo Switch won’t come out until 2025, but markets on Kalshi haven’t caught up yet

You can get $25 free to play this disconnect if you’d like.

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via Kalshi, the prediction market.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

Ross Stores issued a double beat yesterday (see below). I honestly didn’t know they were still around.

When is the last time you (or your spouse/partner) were in a Ross?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

🎤 What you said last time

Properly combined through an excellent documentary and a plate of brisket.

Smoked meats

“Not everyone likes talking about war; almost everyone likes good smoked meat.”

It doesn’t get any better than this, boys.

📈 Trends you need to know

Ross stores had a bit of a moment during the pandemic, but it looks like the chain of discount retailers is sliding into a slow demise. Could a recession save the company?

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Target beat expected Q4 sales, gross profit margins, and EPS. It announced plans for growth in 2024, focusing on new stores, remodels, and a membership program. Stock popped over 10% on the news.

  • CrowdStrike issued strong guidance, beat earnings, and announced its acquisition of Flow Security. Shares up 23%.

  • Box exceeded Q4 earnings expectations but issued poor 2024 guidance; stock stable.

  • ChargePoint saw shares fall 7.5% after reporting a 24% year-over-year revenue decline.

  • NIO briefly reached a new 52-week low then stabilized after missing earnings estimates.

  • Ross Stores provided cautious guidance despite beating earnings and revenue estimates for the holiday quarter; shares 1.5%. [Ed: honestly didn’t know Ross was still a thing.]

Market movers

  • The Biden administration capped credit card late fees at $8; banks are predictably indignant.

  • Apple's shares tumbled below $170, entering a technical correction and erasing over $300 billion in market value.

  • Tesla's German Gigafactory halted operations due to a suspected arson attack, with losses expected in hundreds of millions of euros.

  • Palantir will likely win a $178M TITAN contract with the US Army.

  • Nordstrom's shares dropped 10% after it warned of declining 2024 sales.

  • China targets around 5% economic growth for the year, according to Premier Li Qiang.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇷🇺🇨🇳 Russia and China are considering installing a nuclear power plant on the moon by 2035. [Ed: Wut]

  • 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China increased its defense budget by 7.2% and sharpened rhetoric against Taiwan.

  • 🇱🇧🇮🇱 Hezbollah launched a rocket barrage at Kiryat Shmona, Israel, in response to an IDF airstrike.

  • 🇻🇳 Vietnamese tycoon Truong My Lan faces the death penalty in a $12.5 billion fraud trial.

  • 🇵🇭 Four Philippine sailors were injured after a Chinese attempt to block a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal.

📊 Income

📊 Crypto

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs shattered records with over $10 billion in trading volume amid BTC's price rollercoaster.

  • The SEC will probably decide on Ethereum spot ETF proposals in May.

  • Mining stocks have underperformed during this Bitcoin run.

  • Ether reversed gains, dropping 5% under pressure from Bitcoin's decline. It quickly bounced back and sits well above $3,800 atm.

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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