The best November in nearly a century

*past 24-hour performance

šŸ’Ø TL;DR

  1. RIP to Shane MacGowan. Christmas wonā€™t be the same without you.

  2. It was the best November in nearly a century for the S&P 500.

  3. OPEC voted to reduce oil production.

  4. European inflation tumbled.

This company has reimagined fencing (yep, fencing)

There are sexy businesses, and there are unsexy businesses.

Snap, Peloton, and WeWork are sexy. They all have buzz and panache.

But you know what else these companies have in common? None of them are profitable!

Here at Swaggy, we like to find under-the-radar companies you wouldn't normally think about. And we found one in Perimtec.

Perimtec designs and installs modern fences. That's it. They sell direct-to-consumer across the US. That's what they do.

ā€‹And you know what? They're making real money. Check this out:

  • Annual run rate of $3.1 million

  • LTV to CAC ratio of 4.1

  • Raising at a valuation of $7.1 million (that's low!)

Fencing is becoming a more important part of home design. (Heck, I installed a new backyard fence for exactly this reason)

Perimtec is making an unsexy business as sexy as possible.

Consider investing in these guys.

SPONSOR

šŸ“° Market Headlines

  • It was a mixed day for American equities, but all three major averages recorded their highest monthly gains in 2023, fueled by optimism that the Federal Reserve may have concluded its interest rate hikes.

  • OPEC+ will reduce crude output by about 2 million barrels a day for the first quarter of 2024. Markets werenā€™t impressed.

  • The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, decelerated to an increase of 0.16% in October from November, from 0.31% the month before.

  • Slightly more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, but the overall number of people in the U.S. collecting benefits rose to its highest level in two years.

  • Eurozone inflation tumbled more than expected for a third straight month in November

  • Pending home sales fell to a record low last month.

šŸ•¶ļø Market Vibes

šŸŽ° Market Forecasts and Futures

Brought to you by Kalshi, our favorite prediction market. Get $25 with this link.

  • Valued at $7.9 billion today, the global contact lens market is set to grow 5.6% per year through 2031, hitting $12.6 billion.

  • Oil prices are expected to hit $100 in 2024 if the OPEC members fulfill their pledges for voluntary cuts.

End-of-year forecasts

4,569

15,950

Macro forecasts

3.86%

3.40%

176,793

2% chance

1.84%

šŸ˜± Fear and Greed Index

šŸ§  What do you think?

Oil is at $82 today, but analysts think it could hit $100 in 2024. Agree?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

šŸŽ¤ What you said last time

We asked about rate hikes again, just to make sure you really think the Fedā€™s going to raise again. You do. Prediction markets still show only a 2% chance. A $10 bet on Kalshi returns $500 if the Fed hikes in December.

The Fedā€™s not done hiking rates

ā€œThe Fed will not further challenge the regional banking system with more deterioration of their capital base, and the 2024 political races will mean the Fed stays on the sideline.ā€

šŸ“Š Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathawayā€™s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

  • Okta hit with six downgrades following Q3 earnings.

  • Salesforce jumped 9.4% after it reported better-than-expected results and raised its outlook. Likewise, cloud-computing company Snowflake rose 7% after also giving Wall Street an encouraging financial forecast.

  • Dell beat earnings but missed sales.

  • Alibaba received a rare downgrade on the same day it lost its crown as Chinaā€™s most valuable e-commerce firm to one of its main rivals.

  • Ford says the UAW strike cost it $1.7 billion.

Ideas and analysis

  • Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs think smartphones will make a comeback in 2024 due to advances in AI.

  • AI wars: Amazon is coming for Microsoft and Google.

  • Elon thinks Tesla will be the only American automaker in the global top ten soon.

  • Most REITs are cheap these days, but here are two to avoid.

  • The bull case for investing internationally despite geopolitical uncertainty.

šŸ“Š Income

  • The bond market had a roaring November as the economy seems poised to complete a Goldilocks cooldown.

  • PG&E has issued the largest convertible bond in two years. It pays out at 4.25%.

  • Disney is bringing back its dividend, paying $0.30 per share.

  • Vanguardā€™s Total Bond Market ETF became the first bond fund ever to hit $100 billion AUM.

  • The yearā€™s best fixed-income research providers.

Want to party like itā€™s 2007? Check out public.comā€™s bond ETF portfolio designed to offer exposure to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other securitized debt.

šŸ“Š Crypto

  • Bitcoin has already doubled this year; now itā€™s aiming for $40k.

  • Microstrategy bought $600 million worth of Bitcoin in November.

šŸŒ Global Perspectives

šŸ‡³šŸ‡ŖNiger has started generating electricity from a solar plant near the capital Niamey to make up for power shortages caused by neighboring Nigeria cutting energy supplies.

šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ Two more Chinese execs have gone missing.

šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ Chinaā€™s third largest investment Bank ā€“ China International Capital Corp (CICC) ā€“ has told analysts not to publish negative views on Chinaā€™s economy or its financial markets.

šŸ’Ž Wealth Watch

  • A ā€˜great wealth transferā€™ is underway, with billionaires accumulating more riches through inheritance than through entrepreneurship for the first time.

  • How the young should invest.

  • ā€˜Same as everā€™: Lessons on wealth, greed and happiness from Morgan Housel

šŸ—³ļø Outside the Box

  • Florida pharmacies are cutting WeGovy, removing as much as 33% of the drug.

  • How Americans rate the last ten presidents and their first ladies

  • 70% of Americans think a major world conflict is likely in the next 20 years.

  • The weekā€™s best photojournalism.

  • Turns out there really was a corporate conspiracy to inflate egg prices.

  • Why no one wants to host the Olympics.

šŸ“ŗ What to Watch Today

šŸ“ˆ Trends you need to know

Brought to you by our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Modelo is now Americaā€™s fastest-growing beer brand.

Thatā€™s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

Notes

Please read this disclaimer. The authors of Alt Assets, Inc. are not attorneys, investment advisers, accountants, tax professionals or financial advisers and any of the content should not be taken as professional advice. They are self-taught accredited investors, sharing information, research, entertainment and lessons learned based solely on their own experience and circumstances. Individual results may vary. The published content is unique, based on certain assumptions and market conditions at the time of publishing, and is intended to serve solely as research, not financial advice. For entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice. Alts I LLC (the ā€œFundā€) is an affiliate of Alt Assets, Inc. and the Fund has conducted a private placement offering under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Fund may invest in one, several, or all of the alternative asset classes that Alt Assets, Inc. publishes content about on its site. Any of the Fundā€™s investments that have positive designations on the Alt Assets, Inc. site are purely coincidental, as the Fund is actively managed and guided by its own investment parameters, as summarized in the relevant private placement memorandum. Alternative investing involves a high degree of risk, including complete loss of principal and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The newsletter may contain affiliate links, meaning that Alts.co and its associated entities may receive compensation for referring customers to the noted companies. We recommend seeking the advice of a financial professional before you make any investment in an alternative asset class or any associated entities, and we accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage you may incur.

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