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- 🎩 All the big wigs are in Davos. Where are you?
🎩 All the big wigs are in Davos. Where are you?
🦕 Plus, investor accreditation is a relic.
Wyatt from Alts
16 Jan
Last week, you got our inaugural issue of Institutional-grade options by Benedict Maynard. Make sure to subscribe if you want more like this - it’s half-price for a few more days.
In the meantime, I think traders betting on six rate cuts this year are smoking something. Check out how I’m going to play that if you agree.
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*past 24-hour performance
📰 Market Headlines
All the fancy pants are at Davos this week, and the ECB crew is talking rate cuts. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy all speak today. Follow the action live.
December retail sales come out tomorrow, and I expect the numbers to be big. The “experts” are forecasting a 0.2% rise compared to November against 0.3% for the month prior.
Goldman, MS, and PNC report earnings today, while several regional banks report later in the week. Keep an eye on their exposure to commercial real estate.
Whispers are growing louder that the US investor accreditation system is garbage and needs an overhaul.
Donald Trump won the Iowa caucus. Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
It’s very cold in America [ed note: I’m wearing flip-flops in Spain today].
Succession and The Bear cleaned up at last night’s Emmys.
🕶️ Market Vibes
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures
Despite a hot CPI print, traders still forecast a 66% chance of a rate cut in March. Kalshi is less optimistic at 40%.
I think there’s no chance unless CPI magically falls off a cliff next month, which is unlikely.
I’m going to put $50 on the No side of the March rate cut market on Kalshi. I’ll probably also load up on 0, 1, 2, and 3 rate cuts for 2024 via Kalshi.
[If you want to do the same, remember you get $25 free if you use the links above]
Finally, I’m working with Benedict to build a derivatives strategy to short bonds. In the meantime, I’ll load up on the triple inverse 7-10-year bond ETF over at public.com.
😱 Fear and Greed Index
🧠 What do you think?
Most of you said you were cutting back on holiday spending this year. Where do you think December retail sales will come in tomorrow? |
🎤 What you said last time
Strong feeling here that the market is wildly wrong about the number of rate cuts. You can back that up on Kalshi with free money if you want.
0-2 cuts
“The market is way too optimistic! JPow has spoken…higher for longer. Sorry to boost your bubble.”
3-5 cuts
“Inflation is down but the economy is slowing. Fed won’t wait for 2% inflation target and will cut rates at least 3-4 times in 2024”
📈 Trends you need to know
Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.
Search volume for TMF, the triple bull treasury ETF, has just fallen off a cliff, which is probably a sign it’s time to get short treasuries.
📊 Stocks
Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.
Winners and losers
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions
Washington state is suing to block the Kroger and Albertson’s merger.
Market movers
Uber is shutting down Drizly, its booze delivery service.
Microsoft and Vodafone are teaming up over a decade to onboard 300 million businesses and consumers to AI.
Baidu's stock fell 11.5% due to reports linking its Ernie AI platform to Chinese military AI research.
Tesla and Volvo have paused some production due to the Red Sea Crisis.
Apple is offering discounts in China.
Ideas, trends, and analysis
The NYSE Vice-Chairman expects a big year for IPOs.
Jamie Dimon thinks we’re not out of the woods yet.
Rivian vs Tesla, which is a better buy?
45% of CEOs at Davos say their company can’t survive AI and climate change without significant reinvention.
Some 40% of jobs are at risk from AI, according to the IMF.
🌍 Global Perspectives
🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China is throwing its toys out of the pram about Taiwan’s election.
🇹🇼 A tough row to hoe for Taiwan’s new president.
🇰🇵 North Korean dictator Kim is acting out again.
🇮🇷 🇮🇶 Now Iran is bombing Iraq.
📊 Income
If you think all the talk about loan defaults and a looming recession is overdone, here’s the play for you.
Six oil dividend stocks to play if you’re betting on the Middle East getting worse.
Seven dividend kings to buy and hold forever.
🧠 Errata
The world’s five richest men doubled their wealth over the last four years, while the bottom 60% have become poorer.
Three big changes for 2024’s tax season.
NASA’s built a jet that breaks through the sound barrier without the boom.
Business Insider is standing by its plagiarism reporting on Bill Ackman’s wife, Neri Oxman.
Canadian Geographic’s 2023 Photos of the Year.
📺 What to Watch Today
That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.
Cheers,
Wyatt
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