🪁 Bitcoin's taking crazy pills

😴 While the rest of the market takes sleeping pills

I’m coming at ya from Puerto Vallarta, Mexico this week, so your S&I issues may be with you slightly later than usual.

Pretty pretty good

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📰 Market Headlines

*past 24-hour performance

  • Bitcoin exploded up more than 11% yesterday. It’s just over $57k at time of publishing this morning.

    • “Today is settlement day for bitcoin futures, which is contributing to the price jump we’re seeing,” said Ryan Rasmussen, analyst at Bitwise Asset Management. “We’re approaching the window where we typically see traders positioning themselves ahead of the bitcoin halving, which will happen in the second half of April. I suspect this is the day people start rolling into bullish positions pre-halving.”

    • Greyscale ETF saw a record $2.4 billion in trading volume.

    • Coinbase and MicroStrategy zipped up over 15% on the breakout.

    • More than $150 million worth of BTC shorts were incinerated.

  • Stocks stepped back from highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all recording declines as investors braced for upcoming inflation data.

  • Stock buybacks are especially common this Q4 earnings season.

    • Meta, Disney, and Uber have all announced big repurchase plans, showing confidence in the economy.

  • On the commodities front, oil prices held steady after a 1.1% gain.

  • Biden said he is hopeful for a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas by "next Monday".

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

In my social media echo chamber, investors are furious with Google’s woke Gemini LLM product.

Will this have long-term effects on Google’s share price and viability as a company, or is the outrage just a passing fad?

Where will google shares be in one year relative to the Nasdaq?

Comparing to Nasdaq to control for macro moves

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🎤 What you said last time

Super Tuesday would be an elegant date to bow out. Especially if her true sights are on 2028, not 2024.

March 6

“As somebody else stated, I think she believes she will be the only Republican left standing if Trump somehow gets convicted and imprisoned. I think it's a fool’s bet.”

📈 Trends you need to know

From DeepSearchLabs today. Sentiment for Google Gemini cratered a couple of days ago after the high-profile imaging disaster, but it looks like people have already forgotten about it for the most part.

📊 Stocks

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Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Zoom beat expectations with revenue of $1.15 billion; shares (...forgive me) zoomed up 13% in extended trading. [Ed: I can’t believe this company makes any money at all.]

  • Domino's Pizza reported a Q4 earnings beat with $4.48 per share, though revenue slightly missed expectations at $1.4 billion; shares rose 5.73%.

  • iRobot surged 4.7% after reporting a smaller-than-expected Q4 loss and beating revenue estimates with $307.5 million.

  • Hims & Hers Health rocketed 15% after it significantly narrowed its annual loss.

  • Unity shares fell 17% after hours despite a 35% jump in Q4 revenue as the company issued a disappointing Q1 forecast.

  • Workday reported mixed Q4 results, down 7%.

  • Li Auto impressed with revenue of $5.88 billion, surpassing expectations; shares accelerated 18.8%.

Market movers

  • The FTC sued to block Kroger and Albertsons' $25 billion merger, citing risks of higher prices and job losses.

  • Macy’s will close 150 stores.

  • An expert report on Boeing found "a lack of awareness of safety-related metrics at all levels of the organization."

  • Google whined that Microsoft is seeking a monopoly on AI.

  • 'Blackcat' ransomware attacks, snarled UnitedHealth's prescription deliveries for six days.

  • The FAA closed its investigation into SpaceX's failed Starship flight as the company seeks a license for another launch.

  • Fast-fashion giant Shein is considering a London IPO after regulator pushback against a U.S. one.

  • Expedia announced layoffs of 1,500 employees as part of a restructuring effort.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇵🇸 The Palestinian Authority Prime Minister and his government resigned.

  • 🇨🇳🇵🇭 A floating wall appeared on satellite images at the entrance of a flashpoint island disputed between China and the Philippines.

  • 🇭🇺 🇸🇪 Hungary approved Sweden’s accession to NATO.

  • 🇪🇺 Farmers across Europe protest with rallies in Brussels, Madrid, and Poland.

  • 🇷🇺 Alexei Navalny's allies claim he was killed ahead of a planned prisoner swap between Moscow and Western governments.

📊 Income

📊 Crypto

  • Yesterday's Bitcoin breakout might signal a 22% near-term upside.

  • Institutional investors hold more Ethereum than Bitcoin.

  • The nine new BTC ETFs have acquired more than 300k of the coins.

  • Ether futures' open interest hit an all-time high on major exchanges, showing growing trader confidence.

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

Have we all forgot about this already?

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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