Buffett Indicator Flashes BUY as Tariff Storm Builds

šŸ¤” China: "Door is open" to trade talks with US

šŸ“° Market Headlines

Markets climbed Thursday, with the Nasdaq leading gains after upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Meta reassured investors.

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow added 0.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.4%.

  • Trade tensions hammered earnings across the board as McDonald's reported a 3.6% plunge in US sales and GM slashed profit forecasts.

Warren Buffett buy signal. The ā€œBuffett Indicatorā€ is flashing a buy signal, suggesting equities are undervalued. Buffett hasn’t weighed in on tariffs yet, but that’s expected to change at Saturday’s Berkshire Hathaway meeting—investors everywhere will be watching for guidance, wisdom, or warning.

Apple is in huge trouble. A federal judge ruled that Apple violated a 2021 court order on anticompetitiveness in its app store, referring the company for potential criminal contempt charges for lying under oath.

For the first time in 10 years, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang got a raise: his total pay is now at $49.9 million per year, including a 49% base increase to $1.5 million, $1 million more in variable cash, and stock awards of $38.8 million. But Huang has already made billions from his Nvidia stock—and that’s why equity is king.

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āš”ļø Trade Wars

  • China quietly rolled out a whitelist of US products exempt from its 125% tariffs, including select pharmaceuticals, microchips, and aircraft engines.

  • China’s commerce ministry to the US: ā€œ"If we fight, we will fight to the end; if we talk, the door is open. The tariff war and trade war were unilaterally initiated by the United States.ā€

  • Apple is reshoring—the tech giant will source 19 billion chips from the US this year and plans to shift other manufacturing from China to India.

  • Meanwhile, Chinese regulators dispatched surveys to manufacturing hubs like Xiamen to measure the fallout from ongoing tensions.

  • The US Chamber of Commerce pressed President Trump’s administration for automatic tariff exclusions on small business imports.

  • President Trump floated a rollback of steel and aluminum tariffs for automakers.

šŸ“Š Alternative Investing News

  • President Trump declared that any country buying Iranian oil will face immediate secondary sanctions, barring them from doing business with the US.

  • J.P. Morgan’s Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy, Gregory Shearer, expects a minimum 10% tariff on copper in the future.

  • The US House rolled back California's federal waiver allowing the state to ban gasoline-powered cars by 2035.

  • Mercedes-Benz will relocate assembly of a core vehicle segment to its Tuscaloosa, Alabama factory by 2027 to avoid import fees.

šŸ¤– AI/Future/Tech News

  • Anthropic unveiled new Integrations for its Claude chatbot, letting users connect apps like Atlassian, Zapier, and PayPal, plus a new deep research tool.

  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee about Huawei’s AI chip surge.

  • Microsoft’s CFO Amy Hood told investors to brace for AI capacity constraints as surging customer demand could outpace new data center construction.

  • Ketryx launched validated AI agents for the life sciences, with clients reporting a 90% drop in documentation workload and faster medical device releases.

  • Lyft introduced an AI ā€œEarnings Assistantā€ that helps drivers plan profitable shifts using localized real-time data; access is available via waitlist.

šŸŖ™ Crypto

  • Morgan Stanley announced plans to bring crypto trading to E*Trade in 2026, making Bitcoin and Ethereum directly accessible to 5 million users.

  • Dao5 raised a $222 million fund to fuel on-chain public infrastructure, aiming for institutional and government blockchain adoption.

  • In the last six months, The Blockchain Group, listed on Euronext Growth Paris, has skyrocketed with a 709.8% BTC Yield.

  • A NewsNation poll revealed 82% of voters fear a recession under President Trump's administration, with 91% worried about inflation's bite.

  • US payroll growth was stronger than expected at 177,000 for April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment held at 4.2% as expected.

  • Christmas presents made in China may not be in stock during the holidays because of tariffs—and some retailers are refilling orders now to avoid empty shelves come November.

šŸŒ International Markets

  1. šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡³ The World Bank warned of a sharp decline in global commodity prices, expecting a 12% drop in 2025 and a 5% drop in 2026.

  2. šŸ‡³šŸ‡¬ Nigeria’s 2025 revenue faced pressure after the World Bank report projected Brent crude to fall to a new average of $64 per barrel.

  3. šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ Australia’s election season brought fresh scrutiny to coal-heavy regions. Both major parties clashed over energy policy and mounting job losses.

šŸŽ¤ What you said last time

ā€œMy question is, do they actually have the skills, though? Or are they just letting Grok do all their homework?ā€

🚚 Market movers

  • Microsoft raised prices on Xbox consoles and games, adding pressure to consumers already facing higher costs across the board.

  • UPS is cutting 20,000 jobs and closing 73 U.S. facilities, aiming to save $3.5 billion in 2025.

  • Uber launched a simplified app for seniors in Phoenix and Orlando, featuring larger text, fewer options, and easier access to frequent destinations.

šŸ“Š Earnings this week

  • Apple beat Q1 expectations, but iPhone sales fell 10% and China revenue dropped 8%; shares rose just 0.4%.

  • Amazon topped Q1 estimates $155.7M in revenue but soft Q2 guidance spooked investors; shares dropped 4% before recovering 3.1%.

  • Airbnb posted strong Q1 results, but a weak Q2 bookings outlook dragged momentum down; shares rose 1.7%.

  • McDonald's reported results slightly above forecasts, but missed on revenue; shares dropped 1.9%.

  • Reddit beat Q1 estimates handily, driven by a strong market niche; shares jumped 2%.

  • Mastercard delivered strong earnings, topping forecasts on strong consumer spending; shares dropped 0.3%.

🧠 Miscellanea

šŸ“ŗ What to watch today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,
Brandon with Stefan & Wyatt

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