A bumper Black Friday

*past 24-hour performance

💨 TL;DR

  1. Equities and crypto were off slightly, while gold and oil pumped a bit. Short-term yields rose while long-term yields declined. Asian stocks were mixed today.

  2. Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending broke records.

  3. Israel and Hamas extended their truce two days.

📰 Market Headlines

  • A truce between Israel and Hamas in Gaza that was on the verge of expiring was extended by two days. Eleven more hostages were released.

  • More than 2.9 million people flew in the US Sunday, a new record.

  • The US dollar hit a three month low yesterday.

  • Sales of new homes fell short of expectations in October as mortgage rates hovered near 8 percent.

  • World economies are facing a "megathreatened age," with stagflation set to become a core driver of major market headwinds, "Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini said.

  • Gasoline prices have fallen for 60 consecutive days — the longest streak of declines in more than a year.

🧠 Perspecitve

Black Friday online spending reached a record $9.8 billion in the US, up 7.5% from a year earlier. Online sales on Cyber Weekend, the days between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, surged 7.7% to $10.3 billion. Cyber Monday sales are expected to have hit $12.4 billion, making it the biggest US online shopping day of the year.

This spending surge runs counter to a number of recent economic numbers and earnings warnings that show consumer economic weakness.

Indeed most of you said you’d be spending the same or less this year.

One clue: Buy-now-pay-later services such as Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay drove $5.9 billion in online spending between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23, up 13.4% from last year.

So what’s going on? Three theories:

  1. The economy is stronger than the data suggests.

  2. Consumers are in trouble but can’t stop spending, so they’re using Affirm etc.

  3. Consumers have less to spend this year and loaded up when things were discounted (therefore December sales numbers will be awful).

Have your say below.

🧠 What do you think?

What's behind the blowout Black Friday numbers?

We'll feature the best comments tomorrow.

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🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Brought to you by Kalshi, our favorite prediction market. Get $25 with this link.

Bank of America predicts the S&P will climb 10% next year.

Wall St is pricing in rate cuts in 2024.

End-of-year forecasts

4,550

15,964

Macro forecasts

3.86%

3.29%

175,498

<1% chance

1.98%

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🎤 What you said

Most of you are happy with the changes on the platform formerly known at Twitter

Twitter/X is better

“While not a user, I am relieved that all sides of an issue can now be commented on.”

Twitter/X is worse

“If it ain't broke, don't try to mend it. And proprietors shouldn't try to control the editorial content of their publications.”

This company has reimagined fencing (yep, fencing)

There are sexy businesses, and there are unsexy businesses.

Snap, Peloton, and WeWork are sexy. They all have buzz and panache.

But you know what else these companies have in common? None of them are profitable!

Here at Swaggy, we like to find under-the-radar companies you wouldn't normally think about. And we found one in Perimtec.

Perimtec designs and installs modern fences. That's it. They sell direct-to-consumer across the US. That's what they do.

And you know what? They're making real money. Check this out:

  • Annual run rate of $3.1 million

  • LTV to CAC ratio of 4.1

  • Raising at a valuation of $7.1 million (that's low!)

Fencing is becoming a more important part of home design. (Heck, I installed a new backyard fence for exactly this reason)

Perimtec is making an unsexy business as sexy as possible.

Consider investing in these guys.

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Winners and losers

  • Eli Lilly's Mounjaro leads to more and faster weight loss than Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy or Ozempic.

  • VW’s CEO says the car brand is no longer competitive. The company will cut $10.9 billion in costs.

  • Meanwhile, Rolls Royce is cutting $500 million.

  • Amazon is eyeing up office space in Miami.

  • Shares of AMC tanked after reports that Disney’s latest film, “Wish,” flopped.

Ideas and analysis

  • South Korea’s stock market, despite being home to Asia’s fourth largest economy, is often considered undervalued by analysts, leading to what is sometimes referred to as the “Korea discount.” Is it a good investment or a value trap?

  • Nvidia vs AMD — which is the better investment today?

  • Want to live dangerously? Check out these three cannabis penny stocks.

  • Still feeling lucky? Check out these five oil and gas companies that could pop.

  • Is America’s EV revolution stalling?

  • The bull case for Dominos pizza.

📊 Income

Want to party like it’s 2007? Check out public.com’s bond ETF portfolio designed to offer exposure to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other securitized debt.

📊 Crypto

  • After four days of gains, Bitcoin dipped 2% yesterday along with the broader markets.

  • The amount of circulating Bitcoin that is in profit hit a high of over 83% this week, the highest level since November 2021.

  • The crypto industry can finally close the chapter on a litany of scandals and problems after Binance was hit with a historic settlement by the US Department of Justice.

🌍 Global Perspectives

🇦🇺 Hackers accessed personal employee files at DP World Australia, one of the country's largest ports operators.

🇨🇳 China’s Shein is filing for IPO in the US.

🇨🇳 Affluent Chinese have moved hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country this year with a significant percent flowing into American Treasuries, Japanese flats, and gold bars.

🇦🇷 Argentina’s President-elect Javier Milei will meet with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser today.

🇨🇦 Why a soft landing could be bad for Canada's big banks

💎 Wealth Watch

  • Most Americans think money can buy happiness, and it takes $1.2 million to get there.

  • Towns and cities will pay you as much as $15,000 to move there.

  • The cost of living in the US remains much higher than pre-pandemic levels.

🗳️ Outside the Box

📺 What to Watch Today

📈 Trends you need to know

Brought to you by our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Nearshoring is the practice of outsourcing business operations to a neighboring country, offering benefits like cost savings, cultural alignment, and similar time zones. Its popularity is rising due to factors like reduced labor costs, improved communication, and the ability to quickly respond to market changes.

That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

Notes

Please read this disclaimer. The authors of Alt Assets, Inc. are not attorneys, investment advisers, accountants, tax professionals or financial advisers and any of the content should not be taken as professional advice. They are self-taught accredited investors, sharing information, research, entertainment and lessons learned based solely on their own experience and circumstances. Individual results may vary. The published content is unique, based on certain assumptions and market conditions at the time of publishing, and is intended to serve solely as research, not financial advice. For entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice. Alts I LLC (the “Fund”) is an affiliate of Alt Assets, Inc. and the Fund has conducted a private placement offering under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Fund may invest in one, several, or all of the alternative asset classes that Alt Assets, Inc. publishes content about on its site. Any of the Fund’s investments that have positive designations on the Alt Assets, Inc. site are purely coincidental, as the Fund is actively managed and guided by its own investment parameters, as summarized in the relevant private placement memorandum. Alternative investing involves a high degree of risk, including complete loss of principal and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The newsletter may contain affiliate links, meaning that Alts.co and its associated entities may receive compensation for referring customers to the noted companies. We recommend seeking the advice of a financial professional before you make any investment in an alternative asset class or any associated entities, and we accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage you may incur.

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