Hello.
The war is on pause.
Trump agreed to a 2-week ceasefire last night. The first ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil crashed 17% to $93. The Dow ripped 1,300 points higher. For the first time in over five weeks, the market exhaled.
But before we move on, we want to look back at those five weeks and point out something that might surprise you.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
The Boring Investment That Quietly Beat the Stock Market
We all know the war winners. Defense stocks are up 38% this year. Exxon hit an all-time high. Gold spiked above $5,400.
But here's what nobody's talking about: even humble Treasury bonds outperformed the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq over the entire duration of the conflict.
Since February 28 (the day the war started) through today's massive relief rally, here's the scoreboard:
S&P 500: -1.6%
Dow: -2.4%
Nasdaq: -0.18%
Tesla: -14%
3-month T-bills: +0.4%
So yeah… the stock market just went through five weeks of chaos, a 1,300-point rally, and the S&P is still lower than it was the day the first bombs dropped. Meanwhile, someone who parked cash in short-term Treasuries yielding ~3.7% quietly made money every single day without once checking a headline.
And now, the war "winners" are giving back their gains. Oil plunged 17% today to $93. Exxon dropped from $164 to $154. Defense stocks are pulling back. The trades that "worked" during the war are now working against you on the ceasefire. This is normal in times of peace (though it’s just a very fragile ceasefire, not true peace).
You know what didn't give anything back? T-bills. They just kept compounding. They don't care about ceasefires. They don't care about Truth Social posts. They just pay you.
Why This Matters Beyond the War
We're not saying you should dump your stocks and go all-in on bonds at the first sign of conflict. That's not the move.
But the last five weeks were a real-time reminder that having a boring corner of your portfolio can be incredibly valuable. Short-term Treasuries, money market funds, even a high-yield savings account paying 4.5-5% can act as a shock absorber when everything else is swinging wildly.
Think of it like this: if 10-20% of your portfolio was sitting in short-term bonds or T-bills during the war, that slice was earning a guaranteed return while the rest of your portfolio recovered. No stress. No watching oil futures at 2 AM. No refreshing your brokerage app every time Trump posted.
Just some food for thought!
Today’s sponsor:
Trump's Executive Order Unlocked $20 Trillion on the Ocean Floor.
|
China controls 80% of global cobalt refining and 90% of rare earth processing. When they banned exports to the U.S. military, they didn't just disrupt a supply chain, they threatened the production of every advanced weapons system in the American arsenal. The Trump administration treated it as an act of economic warfare and responded accordingly. Executive Order 14285 declared seabed minerals a national security priority. NOAA fast-tracked permitting. The message from Washington: we will secure these resources ourselves, and we will do it now. Deep Sea Minerals Corp. (OTCQB: DSEAF | CSE: SEAS) entered the space within days of the rule change, led by a CEO with 25+ years of deepwater operations at ConocoPhillips, BP, and Talisman. The company is pursuing a dual-jurisdiction strategy across the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and the Cook Islands EEZ, both aligned with U.S. critical minerals policy. At ~C$26 million, this is ground-floor positioning in what Washington has designated a national security imperative. |
|
Small Cap Investments |
🤖 AI/Future/Tech News
Intel joined Musk's Terafab to build a Texas chip factory for AI computing. Stock rose 3%.
Anthropic confirmed testing Claude Mythos after a leak, calling it a "step change" with unprecedented cybersecurity risks.
AI startup Firmus raised $505 million at a $5.5 billion valuation, $1.35 billion in six months.
Hypersonic aircraft startup Hermeus raised $350 million, led by Khosla, hitting unicorn status.
Apple's foldable iPhone hit snags that may delay launch, though Bloomberg says September 2026 is still on track.
President Trump proposed cutting CISA's budget by $707 million to eliminate "censorship."
Russian hackers hijacked 18,000 routers across 120 countries to steal passwords. The FBI shut it down on Tuesday.
Adobe launched Student Spaces, an AI tool creating study materials from course uploads. Free in beta.
🚨 Trending on Reddit
GameStop discussion on Reddit centers on skepticism from investor Steve Eisman about the company’s ability to pivot despite its significant cash reserves. Some retail investors remain supportive, while others are intrigued by unusual pricing on adjusted option exercises.
Apple chatter focuses on the recent drop in its stock, with users expressing surprise at the severity compared to other companies and speculating about possible reasons behind the decline.
UnitedHealth Group conversation highlights positive sentiment following a finalized 2.48% Medicare rate hike for 2027, which users say contributed to a notable stock increase and sparked regret over missed investment opportunities.
SpaceX chatter is focused on a potential IPO, with controversy around Elon Musk allegedly requiring banks and advisors to subscribe to his AI chatbot Grok. Users are debating how this could impact Tesla and the success of a future public offering.
🤫 Insider Trading
🚚 Market Movers
Sony Pictures is cutting hundreds of jobs as CEO Ravi Ahuja refocuses on anime, gaming adaptations, and franchises while shuttering VFX firm Pixomondo.
Oracle laid off 20,000 to 30,000 employees while pivoting to AI infrastructure, disclosing a $553 billion backlog and a $90 billion FY2027 revenue target.
Waymo opened a robotaxi service in Nashville with Lyft, its 11th US city.
Friendly Franchisees, operator of 65 Carl's Jr. locations, filed for Chapter 11 amid industry-wide closures.
OpenAI leads app downloads on Apple's App Store, followed by Gemini and Claude. Musk's Grok sits at 22nd.
🎙 Make Your Voice Heard
How long did the NYSE shut down at the start of WWI in 1914?
🎤️ What you said last time
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
Flight delay hidden costs hit $18 billion annually, up from $16.4 billion, covering lost work, missed connections, and surge-priced hotels.
Fruit beer market is projected to reach $520.8 million by 2033, growing 4.8% yearly, as 64% of drinkers aged 21-34 prefer fruit brews.
USDA projects US row crop acreage down 6 million acres by 2035 as yields outpace demand, corn down 4 million, soybeans down 2 million.
US pork exports are running ahead of 2024's record, with February hitting $67 per head. Mexico posted $221 million; Japan jumped 20%.
US cassava flour market is expected to nearly double to $3.21 billion by 2036 as gluten-free diets go mainstream.
New York City's median beer costs $9.16, the priciest nationwide. San Antonio cheapest at $5.99. Saturday before St. Patrick's Day saw 152% more orders.
📜 Quote of the Day
“You can’t really understand what is going on now unless you understand what came before.”
📢 We want to hear from you.
Your feedback matters to us! Let us know what you liked or didn’t like about today’s edition.
⭐️ What did you think of today's edition?
That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.
Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc
The information provided in Stocks & Income is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Stocks & Income is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or licensed financial planner. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We may hold positions in or receive compensation from the companies or products mentioned. Disclosures will be made where applicable. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Stocks & Income, AltIndex by Invested Inc. (AltIndex LLC), Finance Wrapped, The Chain, Future Funders, and Dinner Table Discussions are all owned by Invested Inc.