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Good morning.
The new CPI data is in, and core inflation is hot while headline inflation is cold. Prediction markets are now 88% sure that Jerome Powell will cut rates in the September FOMC meeting. Side note: prediction markets are 100% sure the president will deploy the National Guard in DC, because he just did—right after Trump put D.C. police under federal control yesterday.
All that noise had markets in a tizzy yesterday, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some clear signals to pay attention to. Today, we’re covering some choice chart analysis below with some signals you can look out for this week.
Before that, here’s a big signal from today’s partner: an ex-Zillow executive is taking on a $1T+ market with Pacaso, and the company is going public.
In partnership with Pacaso
Former Zillow exec targets $1.3T market
The wealthiest companies tend to target the biggest markets. For example, NVIDIA skyrocketed nearly 200% higher in the last year with the $214B AI market’s tailwind.
That’s why investors are so excited about Pacaso.
Created by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso brings co-ownership to a $1.3 trillion real estate market. And by handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, they’ve made $110M+ in gross profit to date. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
No wonder the same VCs behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso. And for just $2.90/share, you can join them as an early-stage Pacaso investor today.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
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📰 Market Headlines
Markets slipped yesterday as traders eyed today’s key inflation report.
The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%.
July CPI data dropped today—core inflation was high (3.1% instead of expected 3.0%) and headline inflation was low (2.7% instead of expected 2.8%). Markets don’t seem too rattled so far (S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose pre-market); if anything, they just seem more certain that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will lower interest rates at the next FOMC meeting. In fact, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman still holds that we’ll see not one, but three rate cuts before the year is out.
However, there are still some stocks to keep an eye on at the moment. Michael Nauss, CMT at Stats Edge Trading, highlighted some key charts:
Nauss thinks Coinbase $COIN is looking strong and poised to break out, but only if Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and the gang continue to perform (when crypto does well, Coinbase makes more money from trading). Key resistance level is $380-$400.
He noted that Opendoor $OPEN is still heavily shorted, and that any breakout could fuel another run. Shorts were entered between $0.50 and $1.00, and as price has risen all the way to $4.00 recently, the bears are feeling the pressure. (Note: We saw that Reddit isn’t even talking about $OPEN right now, so this could be a chance to beat even r/WallStreetBets to the punch if it happens. And this is not investment advice, just sharing Michael’s analysis and our observations.)
🍿 Stock Market Snacks
We’ve got a big IPO coming up tomorrow. The Peter-Thiel-backed crypto exchange Bullish just increased its upcoming IPO size by almost 10 million shares. The IPO is tomorrow, and you can apply for an allocation on most stock exchange apps. For context, bullish owns the crypto news site CoinDesk and has been around since 2021. Do your own research, and remember that IPOs can be extremely volatile (and are not by any means guaranteed to go well for investors).
Elon Musk’s xAI is planning to take legal action against Apple for alleged antitrust violations. Musk claimed that the app store favors xAI competitor OpenAI illegally, making it impossible for any other AI app to reach #1 in popularity. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman countered Musk by accusing him of manipulating X to benefit himself. Elon Musk then called Altman a liar, and X Head of Product Nikita Bier joined the fray with ChatGPT allegations. In summary, it’s a mess, but we’ll let you know if anything else comes of it.
President Trump took extraordinary control of Washington, D.C.'s police department and deployed 800 National Guard troops to the capital on Monday. The president cited urban crime as justification, though violent crime has actually fallen 26% in the city this year.
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan met with the president at the White House following last week's call for his resignation over alleged China ties. The meeting was "very interesting," according to President Trump, who said Cabinet members will work with Tan on proposals in the coming week. INTC shares popped 3.5%.
😱 Fear and Greed Index
Markets are holding relatively steady amid currently unfolding domestic and economic pressure—even ticking up a point on the Fear and Greed Index from 57 yesterday.
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
Morgan Housel said smart investors often overcomplicate investing, and Warren Buffett agreed on what to do instead.
Leading investment bank Piper Sandler thinks Chipotle $CMG could rise as much as 20%—and that’s just the base case. Put that in your burrito bowl.
US youth unemployment reached alarming levels: the 8.1% rate for graduates aged 20-24 hit a 4-year high, matching what we saw in 2008.
A municipal bond strategist warned that the opportunity for attractive yields won't last. With 86% odds of a September Fed cut, "the ship is leaving the port."
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📊 Chart of the Day
Ethereum continues to push higher and higher—breaking above $4,400 yesterday for the first time in 3 and a half years!
What’s going on with Ethereum beyond a short squeeze?
18.8M $ETH remain on exchanges, the lowest on recordWeek after week, coins vanish from public order books
Not in a frenzy, not by chance, but through steady, calculated moves from the kind of money that never chases price
— #Fernando Pertini (#@DecodeMarkets)
12:54 PM • Aug 10, 2025
🚚 Market movers
StubHub jump-started its IPO plans for September after pausing in April due to President Donald Trump's tariff concerns.
Sweetgreen boosted chicken and tofu portions by 25% to win back customers after same-store sales wilted 7.6% in Q2.
🪙 Crypto
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) marked the five-year anniversary of its first Bitcoin purchase with another $18 million buy.
Trump-backed World Liberty Financial established a $1.5 billion "crypto treasury" as institutional adoption accelerates.
🤖 AI/Future/Tech News
Electronic Arts blocked 330,000 attempts to cheat during Battlefield 6's open beta testing.
Reddit yanked access to the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine after discovering AI companies were scraping archived Reddit content to bypass the platform's data restrictions.
Nvidia unveiled Cosmos Reason, a new 7-billion-parameter vision language model designed specifically for robotics and physical AI applications.
🌍 International Markets
🇯🇵 Japan's political uncertainty intensified as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faced calls to resign, potentially delaying the budget and rate hike decisions.
🇨🇦 Canada shed 41,000 jobs in July, yet the unemployment rate held at 6.9%.
🇫🇷 France's CAC 40 index dipped 0.57%, driven by declines in consumer goods, technology, and basic materials sectors.
🇵🇪 Peru’s central bank held its key interest rate at 4.50%, bucking the 52 basis points of cuts priced in by markets.
🎤️ What you said last time
“Nvidia is the dominant player in AI, and I believe we are just scratching the surface.”
📊 Earnings
BigBear.ai withdrew its profit guidance and lowered its sales forecast due to government cutbacks, and shares fell 0.7%.
Monday.com exceeded Q2 earnings estimates but issued a disappointing 2025 revenue forecast, so shares plunged 29.95%.
Oklo Inc. reported a larger-than-expected loss with EPS at -0.18, missing forecasts by 50%; shares dropped 4.53%.
Plug Power beat Q2 revenue estimates with a 21.4% increase; however, a larger-than-expected loss led to a stock rise of 4.64%.
📢 We want to hear from you
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⭐️ What did you think of today's edition?
📺 What to watch today
That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.
Cheers,
Brandon with Stefan & Wyatt
Thumbnail image: from Wikimedia, uploaded by GuardianH
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