🔥 December retail sales blew out expectations

📉 But sentiment is turning ugly

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*past 24-hour performance

📰 Market Headlines

  • Equity markets were up and down yesterday and ended in the red, along with treasury yields.

  • As predicted (by me, anyway), December retail sales came in super hot yesterday, smashing forecasts.

    • Note that all this spending is on credit, which is medium to long-term bearish.

    • Because, for example, credit card company Discover has set aside $1 billion to cover loan delinquencies. Its charge-off rate has nearly doubled in the last year.

  • The Fear and Greed index has collapsed since last week. Dogma is now pointing at a recession and a bear market.

  • Housing starts and building permits data comes out today. Starts are expected to have fallen dramatically, while permit data is forecast to rise slightly.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

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🎤 What you said last time

Markets are even more optimistic than you guys. Prediction market Kalshi says there’s a 96% chance the government sorts itself out.

Yes, they’ll get the job done

“It will be another stopgap bill. It will make no progress with either side, just kicking the can down the road.”

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Despite a whole host of secular issues, interest in this year’s Super Bowl is already 9% higher than last year.

📊 Stocks

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Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Discover beat estimates, but shares slid after reporting its net charge-off rate climbed in Q4.

  • Alcoa posted a smaller-than-expected loss; shares still fell 3%.

  • HB Fuller also beat estimates and saw shares fall, down 1%.

  • Watches of Switzerland cut guidance, sending shares down 30%.

Market movers

  • Alaska Air and Boeing are, predictably, being sued.

  • Bank fees may be capped at $3. Banks are unenthusiastic.

  • More job cuts:

    • Lithium Miner Albemarle is cutting an undisclosed number of jobs as it looks to cut $750 million in costs.

    • More job cuts are coming to Google to support AI growth.

    • YouTube, owned by Google, is firing 100 people from its creator support team.

  • Plug Power is selling $1 billion in shares; the announcement sent shares down 10%.

  • Former COO Sheryl Sandberg is stepping down from Meta’s board.

  • EU new car sales fell in December for the first time in a year in a half.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

🇸🇬 Singapore’s transport minister was accused of 27 charges, including bribery and corruption.

🇪🇨 The Ecuadorian prosecutor investigating last week’s television station takeover was murdered.

🇮🇳 India will be the fastest-growing major country in the world for the next several years.

🇵🇰 🇮🇷 Pakistan bombed some suspected militant bases in Iran as retaliation for Tehran’s attacks earlier this week. Iran is keen to continue escalating.

🇳🇬 A massive explosion in Nigeria killed three and injured 77. The blast was caused by explosives stored for an illegal mining operation.

🇹🇭 Another explosion killed around 20 in Thailand after a fireworks factory blew up.

📊 Income

📊 Crypto

  • BTC ETF inflows have reached nearly $1 billion.

🧠 Errata

  • Police in southern Colorado discovered a severed human hand in the pocket of a homicide suspect following his arrest.

  • Why Teslas don’t work when it’s cold outside.

  • We finally know a lot more about California Forever, the new city-state being built by Silicon Valley billionaires.

  • If a power line falls on your car, don’t get out. Three people died in Portland doing just that.

  • What do investors really want?

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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