Good morning.

Markets are bracing for a potential government shutdown that could create a data blackout just as the Fed needs it most. The BLS confirmed it won't release Friday's jobs report if the government closes, forcing the central bank to fly blind into its October policy meeting. Prediction markets are pricing a ~77% chance of shutdown.

Meanwhile, the macro debate is getting louder. Goldman and Deutsche Bank are bullish (Deutsche just set a 7,000 S&P target), while Moody's Mark Zandi warned the economy is "on the precipice of recession." And Apollo just released a report showing AI concentration in the S&P 500 now exceeds the dot-com bubble in terms of forward p/e.

These times are unprecedented, but honestly, this just feels like any other week of trading in 2025 🚬

See AltIndex’s Newest Top 3 Overall Stock Picks

Things are going crazy in markets right now. It feels like opinions vary wildly and the macro (and micro) signals are all over the place.

In the midst of all the chaos, AltIndex’s AI model has been consistently rating these three stocks as “buys” for almost two months. Now, they’ve risen to the top-rated spot across the whole platform.

AltIndex’s AI is constantly updating its stock ratings based on the freshest alternative data mixed with rigorous technical analysis. We are always intrigued when any stock is recommended for any length of time, as that typically means it’s showing strength consistently and in several different areas.

One of them is Pembina Pipeline. See the other two here, and get seven more stocks with a free 7-day trial of the app:

📰 Market Headlines

Stocks edged higher Monday as shutdown fears loomed.

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, and the Dow added 0.2%.

  • Odds of a shutdown by Wednesday sit near 80%, which would halt the release of Friday’s jobs report.

A government shutdown could kill Friday's jobs report. The BLS confirmed it will not release employment data if the government closes, which would leave the Fed without critical labor market information ahead of its October policy meeting. Prediction markets are pricing a 77% chance the shutdown happens. For investors who want real-time hiring data instead of waiting on government reports, AltIndex constantly updates company-level hiring trends and factors those numbers into its AI stock ratings.

Rocket Companies (RKT) is setting up for a potential short squeeze, according to Traderstewie on X. The stock has 47% short interest and is forming a bullish flag pattern after several days of heavy accumulation. Breakout targets are $28-$30.

MP Materials (MP) is potentially forming a cup-and-handle pattern on low volume, with the 50-day moving average acting as support (Traderstewie’s analysis again). He’s watching for a bounce with price targets at $80 and $85.

The market analyst macro divide is getting extreme:

  1. Deutsche Bank raised its 2025 S&P 500 target to 7,000, while Moody's Mark Zandi said the economy is "on the precipice of recession."

  2. Goldman remains bullish on equities, setting up a stark contrast between institutional optimism and recession warnings.

  3. Apollo's latest report shows the Magnificent Seven now account for 32% of S&P 500 market cap, with AI concentration exceeding dot-com bubble levels. TMT (tech, media, & telecom) market share has hit 45%, matching the late-1990s peak.

  4. The concentration is even more extreme when you look at returns: 55% of S&P 500 gains since 2021 came from just 10 stocks.

  5. Overall: it looks like this is a bubble, it just depends on whether you think it’s only beginning to inflate or about to pop.

Cleveland Fed President Hammack warned of a "challenging time" with inflation, reinforcing a hawkish stance that could pressure rate-sensitive growth stocks even as the Fed potentially lacks fresh employment data.

PayPal options volume surged to 4.9x normal levels, with heavy activity in October and longer-dated contracts signaling institutional positioning ahead of a potential catalyst.

Wealthfront filed for an IPO and will list on Nasdaq under the ticker WLTH. The robo-advisor manages $88.2 billion in assets for 1.3 million customers.

Robinhood soared 12% to a record high after revealing customers have traded more than 4 billion prediction-market contracts, with half of that volume in Q3 alone.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🤖 AI/Future/Tech News

  • OpenAI rolled out Instant Checkout in ChatGPT, letting US users buy directly from Etsy and, soon, Shopify merchants without leaving the chat.

  • Chinese AI firm DeepSeek released a Sparse Attention model that can cut API costs by up to 50% in long-context operations.

👨‍⚖ Congress Trade Updates

Stock

Who?

Buy/Sell

Price

Amount

Perform-mance

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)

Buy

$65.03

$1K - $15K

-0.09%

Duke Energy (DUK)

Buy

$122.11

$15K - $50K

+0.6%

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Buy

$240.37

$1K - $15K

+1.5%

🚚 Market Movers

  • Comcast named Mike Cavanagh co-CEO alongside longtime leader Brian Roberts.

  • Alphabet-owned YouTube paid $24.5 million to settle Donald Trump’s lawsuit over his 2021 suspension.

🎤What you said last time

The new normal is... abnormal.”

🎪 Crowdfunding Showcase

SofPulse is taking on the opioid crisis with an FDA-cleared device that eases postoperative pain and inflammation, cutting opioid use by up to 70% and pain by 50%. With a $25 billion hospital market in sight and plans for an eventual IPO, the company has already raised over $150k from early backers. See their campaign here →

🧠 The Missing (Market) Links

  • CEO turnover is hitting records: GSK, Comcast, Barrick, and others announced leadership changes Monday, adding to the 1,358 CEO exits already logged in 2025.

  • Charlie Javice was sentenced to 7 years for defrauding JPMorgan Chase. The Frank founder inflated user numbers from 300,000 to 4 million to secure a $175 million acquisition.

  • Walmart froze its 2.1 million headcount for three years while betting AI would drive revenue growth, as its CEO said the technology had already changed every job.

  • Major airlines warned of delays as a government shutdown loomed, with the FAA already 3,800 controllers short of target staffing.

📜 Quote of the Day

“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!”

-John Bogle

📢 We want to hear from you

We love hearing from you, and we deeply appreciate your feedback.

That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc

Thumbnail image: Michael Reuter, Flickr

The information provided in Stocks & Income is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Stocks & Income is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or licensed financial planner. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We may hold positions in or receive compensation from the companies or products mentioned. Disclosures will be made where applicable.

Stocks & Income, AltIndex, Finance Wrapped, The Chain, and Future Funders are all owned by Invested, Inc.

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