It’s been the best September for the S&P 500 since 2010, but the news wouldn’t have you know it.

The government just shut down, but history says that's actually bullish: the S&P 500 has posted an average 13% gain in the year following shutdowns, and ended higher 86% of the time. Bank stocks are down on the news, but pharma is surging after Pfizer and Merck struck deals that could reshape drug pricing.

Meanwhile, Tesla just had its best month in years with a 33% September rally, gold hit $3,900 for the first time ever (and is now the most overbought since 1980), and CoreWeave signed a $14.2 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta. OpenAI's partnership with Stripe is crushing payment stocks, and Chamath just launched another SPAC with a simple message: "I'm Back."

More below.

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Stock futures dropped Wednesday as the government shutdown began.

But the shutdown might actually be good for markets: history shows that shutdowns have been bullish 86% of the time, with the S&P 500 averaging 13% gains in the year following closure. The average shutdown lasts just 8 days, and during the 35-day 2018 shutdown, the S&P rallied 11%.

Pfizer and Merck surged nearly 7% each after separate breakthroughs. Pfizer struck a deal with the White House to lower drug prices in exchange for a three-year tariff exemption, while Merck won positive EU recommendation for its RSV treatment. The White House also launched TrumpRx, a site letting consumers buy discounted medications directly from manufacturers. The move could potentially hurt insurance and pharma companies like UnitedHealth (UNH), Cigna (CI), and Eli Lilly (LLY) while benefiting direct-to-consumer healthcare plays like Hims (HIMS).

OpenAI partnered with Stripe to add shopping features to ChatGPT, crushing payment stocks. Paycom and Block both tumbled over 4% as the market digested the implications of AI-powered commerce bypassing traditional payment processors.

Tesla rocketed 32% in September, making it the best Magnificent Seven performer. Shares have doubled since April on Elon Musk's pivot toward AI robots and robotaxis, but the rally faces a crucial test this week when sales data drops. Analysts are watching whether AI-fueled hype can survive the reality of weakening EV demand.

CoreWeave jumped 15% after signing a massive $14.2 billion deal with Meta to supply Nvidia-powered data centers through 2031. The agreement highlights the explosive AI infrastructure boom, though analysts are warning about "circular" financing risks as AI companies invest in each other at sky-high valuations.

Gold hit $3,900 per ounce for the first time ever, but the rally is flashing major warning signs. The metal posted a 90 RSI on the monthly chart, the most overbought since 1980. Silver also hit its highest quarterly close in history. When assets get this extended, sharp reversals can come into play.

Pinterest could be the surprise AI advertising winner. Mizuho set a $50 price target for PINS (nearly 50% above current levels), arguing that the company's AI-driven ad tools could steal budget share from bigger players. While Meta and Alphabet also got outperform ratings, analysts see the sharpest upside potential in Pinterest.

Chamath Palihapitiya launched another SPAC under ticker $AEXA, announcing his return with an article on X under the banner "I'm Back." It seems like all of finance Twitter groaned at once in response. Chamath is notorious for launching SPACs that end up going down only. Here’s Palihapitiya’s total SPAC performance record to date, including Virgin Galactic, Opendoor, and SoFi.

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