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😢 Guys, the Fed ain't gonna cut rates

😢 Guys, the Fed ain't gonna cut rates

🍻 Plus, congrats to those who stuck out Dry January

🎨 This week, I shared an art opportunity with you guys, and we had nearly 100 inquiries. Check it out and submit your interest if you want to learn more.

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*past 24-hour performance

📰 Market Headlines

It was an awful day for equities yesterday, as the Fed didn’t cut rates in January (expected) and signaled it won’t be cutting in March either (expected by us, but not everyone).
Nonetheless, each of the major US indices was up at least 1% for the month of January.
The two key quotes from JPow yesterday regarding rate cuts:
- “If we saw an unexpected weakening in the labor market, that would certainly weigh on cutting sooner.”
- “We have a ways to go,” he said. “Core inflation is still well above target on a 12-month basis. Certainly, I’m encouraged, and we’re encouraged by the progress, but we’re not declaring victory at this point. We think we have a ways to go.”
Jobless claims, the ISM manufacturing index, and construction spending reports are out today. The jobs report is due tomorrow.
Reporting today:
- Merck, Peloton, and Royal Caribbean before the bell
- Amazon, Apple, and Meta after the close
The House passed a $78 billion bipartisan tax bill.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Proof that some people are gluttons for punishment, a full 35% of traders still think the Fed will cut rates in March. The number is lower on Kalshi but is still too high.

Easy money there if you want it [disclosure: I have a tiny position on ‘no’]

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

Apple, Amazon, and Meta all report after the close. Best quarter?

🎤 What you said last time

Boeing smashed earnings and beat revenue but refused to issue guidance on 2024 and 2025.

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Despite reports to the contrary, Dry January gets more popular every year. Internationally, it’s most popular in Finland. In the US, it’s the northeast.

📊 Stocks

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Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

Qualcomm beat both top and bottom-line estimates handily. Shares fell 2% anyway.
Volvo reported solid growth and said it would divest its luxury EV Polestar brand. Shares surged 24%.
Deutsche Bank smashed estimates while profits were down 30% YoY. The bank will cut 3,500 jobs back office jobs to boost profits. Shares were up 4.6%.
As noted above, Boeing beat on both earnings and revenue but left guidance alone. Shares were up 5%.
French bank BNP Paribas missed earnings and lowered guidance. Shares down 8%.

Market movers

Zuck’s testimony before the Senate yesterday was a disaster. The entire hearing was a bipartisan beatdown.
More than two dozen California counties are suing Tesla for mishandling hazardous waste.
Walmart is opening 150 new stores.
Footlocker and LVMH both received appalling scores on a recent forced labor report.