😥 A hot CPI print gave everyone the sads

👗 Undeterred, Rent the Runway was up 120%

Yesterday’s WC (hey, that’s me) debunked a silly economic theory involving Winnebagos and the economy. Also, Saudi Arabia’s humiliating about-face.

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📰 Market Headlines

  • A hot CPI report torched equities and hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.

    • The Consumer Price Index rose 3.5% year-over-year in March, exceeding forecasts. Core CPI also came in above expectations at 3.8%.

    • Futures are now pricing in the first cut in September instead of June, and just two cuts this year instead of three.

    • The Dow & S&P 500 both dropped about a percent on the news.

  • Bitcoin rebounded to 70k, ignoring inflation and the rest of the world.

  • European stocks closed slightly higher. Swiss chocolate maker Barry Callebaut climbed 9.7% after reporting results.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ​Kalshi​, the prediction market.

The odds of a rate cut by June…👀 👀 👀

😱 Fear and Greed Index

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen this index tick back over to neutral.

🧠 What do you think?

🎤 What you said last time

Ouch. More correct than expected.

💬 Have your say

Rate cuts aren't coming. Does the stock market finally go down?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

📈 Trends you need to know

What do you think? Do Winnebago sales predict consumer confidence? Or vice versa?

📊 Stocks

Get $20 free shares at ​public.com​ using code ALTSCO.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Delta Air Lines reported Q1 profit of $37 million with revenue up 8%; stock climbed 4% before retreating with the broader market.

  • Rent The Runway reported mixed Q4 results, missing per-share expectations but beating revenue forecasts; shares jumped 120%. [Ed: Is this a meme sock?]

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced it will purchase Alpine Immune Sciences for $4.9 billion to acquire new immunotherapy treatments.

Market movers

  • Russia seized over 650,000 acres of farmland and other assets from a company with ties to an "unfriendly" country.

  • A Trump Media director was accused of "hacking" files in an attempted corporate coup.

  • Job cuts:

    • Checkr, last valued at $5B, slashed 32% of its workforce.

    • USAA eliminated over 200 roles due to "changing business needs."

    • The Wall Street Journal laid off at least 11 staffers on its video and social media desks.

    • Stellantis consolidated 9 US business centers to 6 and laid off 30 employees.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇷🇺 Russia aborted the launch of its Angara-A5 space rocket for the second time in two days.

  • 🇭🇰 A fire in a packed Hong Kong building killed five and sent dozens to the hospital.

  • 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China's Xi told Taiwan's former president that nobody can stop the "family reunion" between the two sides.

  • 🇮🇹 At least three were killed in a blast at an Italian hydroelectric plant.

📊 Crypto

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

Is the Middle East about to get a lot hotter?

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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