And what a morning it’s been already. To catch you up to speed:

And we’ll be chatting about risk vs. volatility, too.

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New section! Helping you improve 1% each day as a trader.

Today's lesson: Understanding the difference between volatility and risk. This is something every investor, even Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, needs to understand.

Most traders treat these terms interchangeably. They're not the same, and confusing them can destroy your portfolio.

Volatility measures how much a stock's price moves up and down. High volatility means big swings (both directions). Tesla, crypto, meme stocks: all highly volatile.

Risk measures the probability of permanent capital loss. A stock can be volatile but low-risk if the underlying business is solid. On the other hand, a stock can have low volatility but high risk if the company is quietly deteriorating.

Example:

This is important because if you exit positions just because they're volatile, you'll miss compounding gains. If you hold positions just because they're "stable," you might be sitting on a slow-motion disaster.

Next time you're nervous about a position, ask yourself: Am I worried about price volatility or actual business risk? If it's just volatility and the thesis is intact, consider holding. If it's business risk, get out regardless of how "stable" the price looks.

Here’s a video of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger explaining the difference between risk and volatility in their own words →

Markets climbed on Thursday after President Trump confirmed a long-awaited meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.

CPI came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, giving markets a cooler-than-expected inflation print. S&P 500 futures are up almost 1% on the news at the time of writing. The reading strengthens the case for continued Fed rate cuts and provides relief after concerns that sticky inflation might force the central bank to pause easing. With the government shutdown freezing most economic data, this CPI report was printed as a special exception.

Trump terminated all trade negotiations with Canada over a TV ad, injecting massive uncertainty into the $1.3 trillion annual trade relationship. The move pressures autos, agriculture, and materials sectors. Meanwhile, China struck a conciliatory tone ahead of a newly scheduled Trump-Xi meeting on October 30thjust before major tariff hikes take effect. Markets are trying to process geopolitical whiplash as one key ally gets cut off while progress with a key rival potentially emerges.

Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), sending BNB up ~5% and boosting digital asset sentiment. The move marks a landmark moment for crypto and signals growing political support for the industry at the highest levels.

Elon Musk pressed shareholders to approve his proposed $1 trillion Tesla pay plan, saying he needs "strong influence" over Tesla's future "robot army." Does he just not want control to fall into the wrong hands, or is he the wrong person to be in control? The comments followed mixed Q3 results and proxy adviser recommendations to reject the package.

Intel beat Q3 sales estimates in its first earnings report since the US government became a top shareholder, signaling potential recovery in PC demand and boosting the semiconductor sector. The results suggest the government's investment thesis may be working.

Oracle is taking on $38 billion in debt for data centers, signaling that the AI infrastructure build-out is entering a new phase. Combined with Google's 1 million TPU deal and Crusoe's $1.4 billion raise, the industry is moving from "who has the chips" to "who can convert dollars into megawatts and rack space fastest."

Super Micro fell after guiding Q1 revenue below estimates, but the company noted ~$12 billion in design wins shifted to Q2 and maintained full-year guidance. The dip may be a timing issue rather than a demand problem.

So, the S&P 500 might hit a new all-time high today…

And CNN’s Fear & Greed Index says we’re in “fear” territory at a 29/100?

We don’t think so. And neither does AltIndex’s indicator, which has markets solidly in the “greed” zone right now.

See the alternative data signals that go into their specific Fear & Greed index here.

“There's a lot of money in retail, and meme stocks have returns for people willing to play them correctly. I still have a large amount of my portfolio stuffed in the ETFs, but if you are young and aren't risking 20-30% of what you have on big returns, you will never see them.”

We love hearing from you, and we deeply appreciate your feedback.

That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc