šŸŒ¶ļø Inflation was red hot

šŸ§Š But growth was ice cold

Wednesday, we announced that Alts 1 is open again to new investors, and weā€™ve already received over $400k in interest. If you would like to invest differentlyā€”in assets like blue-chip wine, British contemporary art, tequila barrels, and Pele rookie cardsā€”please get in touch.

Oh, and donā€™t forget to check out our curated book recommendations.

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šŸ“° Market Headlines

  • High inflation and slowing growth pushed stocks down. Nasdaq and S&P500 fell about 0.5% and the Dow dropped nearly 1%.

    • Core PCE grew 3.7% year over year in Q1 above estimates of 3.2% and way higher than the 2% seen in Q4 of last year.

      • [Ed: Once more for those in the back: ā€œRates are never coming down.ā€]

    • GDP expanded just 1.6% in Q1, well below forecasts of 2.4%.

  • Alphabet sharesĀ skyrocketed 14% as the company beat on earnings, announced its first-ever dividend, and authorized a $70 billion buyback.

  • Snap shares rose 23% due to stronger advertising and more Snapchat+ subscribers (yes, people pay for Snapchat).

  • Sources say ByteDance wouldĀ prefer to shut down TikTokĀ in the US rather than sell it if it exhausts all legal options. [Ed: itā€™s as if this company is not being run for profit and instead has other non-commercial priorities]

šŸ•¶ļø Market Vibes

šŸŽ° Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ā€‹Kalshiā€‹, the prediction market.

GDP forecasts for Q2 took a beating after yesterdayā€™s colossal miss. Rate cuts also continue to look increasingly unlikely.

šŸ˜± Fear and Greed Index

Two steps forward, one step back.

šŸŽ¤ What you said last time

Loads of strong opinions about whether or not TikTok should be banned in the US.

Yes, itā€™s Chinese Spyware.

  • ā€œThe Western governments are naive in hoping that totalitarian regimes will change into trustful trade partners. Copy and spy has been anchored in the Chinese DNA.ā€

  • ā€œWe already have our own spyware. More is not better.ā€

  • ā€œCome on. Give us the option to pick "They don't allow any of our social media companies to operate in China so fair is fair" [Ed: Fair point]

  • ā€œWhile I strongly support open access to information, I believe applications like TikTok and Temu pose significant risks to the United Statesā€”both culturally and economically. In my view, these platforms represent a targeted threat to our country. Forfeiting these 'crapplications' is a worthwhile sacrifice to limit undue influence from China. As a professional in cybersecurity who does not use these platforms, I recognize my bias. However, I am also concerned about their profound social impact on our youth. Nonetheless, I am wary of the slippery slope this creates. Establishing a precedent for banning applications could lead to excessive government overreach and interference.ā€

No, thatā€™s censorship.

  • ā€œIt's censorship, but I don't use it, so I don't really care.ā€

šŸ“ˆ Trends you need to know

GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 2023 was supported by credit card spending. This sharp decline is a leading indicator for Visa and Mastercardā€™s next earnings reports.

šŸ§  What do you think?

šŸ’¬ Have your say

With GDP growth missing estimates badly, where do we go from here?

Next quarter's GDP report will

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

šŸ“Š Stocks

Get $20 free shares at ā€‹public.comā€‹ using code ALTSCO.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • MicrosoftĀ beat Wall Street estimates for Q3 revenue and profit, lifting shares 4%.

  • IntelĀ forecast Q2 revenue and profit below market estimates, dropping shares by 6%.

  • AstraZenecaĀ sailed past market expectations for Q1 revenue and profit; shares climbed over 5%.

  • Caterpillar's shares plummeted 7.5% on a weak Q2 sales outlook and a softening economy in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

  • T-Mobile USĀ topped Q1 EPS estimates but missed revenue expectations, causing its stock price to dip 0.07%.

  • American AirlinesĀ reported a record Q1 revenue but missed EPS estimates; shares rose 1.5%.

  • Mobileye Global'sĀ Q1 revenue plunged nearly 50%, hurt by fewer orders for its driver-assistance chips, knocking shares 3%.

Market movers

  • ChargePointĀ enhanced its softwareĀ for electric fleets, enabling seamless driver reimbursement for home charging.

  • Plug PowerĀ struck dealsĀ for 350 megawatts of electrolyzers in Europe and the US, bringing its total contracts to 4.5 gigawatts.

  • Southwest Airlines announced plans toĀ close operationsĀ at four airports and fire over 2,000 employees.

  • Bristol Myers Squibb isĀ cutting $1.5 billion in costsĀ by the end of 2025, including laying off 2,200 employees this year.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • The average 30-year mortgage rateĀ climbed to 7.17%, the highest since November.

  • A recordĀ $8.8 billion was pulledĀ from US sustainable funds in Q1 due to high rates, middling returns, and ESG politicization.

šŸŒ Global Perspectives

  • šŸ‡­šŸ‡¹ Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry hasĀ resignedĀ and a transitional council was sworn in.

  • šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ Around 160 long-finned pilot whales haveĀ washed upĀ on the coast of Western Australia, with 28 whales already dead.

  • šŸ‡«šŸ‡· Delays and flight cancellations are set to impact Europe after authorities failed to reach a deal with French air traffic control workers.

  • šŸ‡®šŸ‡¶ IraqĀ hangedĀ 11 militants sentenced to death on terrorism charges in the latest mass executions in the country.

  • šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ ChinaĀ launchedĀ three astronauts into space, bound for the country's space station, where they will work for half a year.

šŸ“Š Crypto

  • The famous "Buy Bitcoin" sign from Janet Yellen's 2017 speechĀ sold for $1 millionĀ at auction.

  • BlackRockā€™s Bitcoin ETFĀ witnessedĀ the end of a 71-day inflow streak.

  • The SECĀ delayed its decisionĀ on allowing options trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs and asked for public comments.

  • Bitcoin ETFs in the USĀ drove higher crypto allocationsĀ among institutional investors, reaching 3% of portfolios, the highest since 2021.

šŸ§  Errata

  • A Baltimore high school coach allegedly used AIĀ voice cloningĀ in an attempt to get the principal fired by faking racist remarks.

  • Hasbro's new $1,200 self-transformingĀ MegatronĀ toy is equipped with a cannon and a flail, making it the ideal gift for any kid.

  • A stowaway family cat took a 600-mile trip in an Amazon return box before reuniting with its family.

  • Two of the fourĀ horsesĀ that broke free in central London underwent surgery. [Ed: All four are still searching for their horsemen.]

šŸ“ŗ What to Watch Today

Thatā€™s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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