Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the second strike since the US-Iran ceasefire deal weeks ago.

And Trump is saying the ceasefire is over, and that the U.S. will “hit them hard tonight.”

Stocks are selling off. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, Nasdaq tumbled 0.3% (semiconductors leading), and the Dow dropped 1%. Energy held up on supply concerns; discretionary got crushed on higher fuel costs. Watch the next 72 hours. Ceasefire = elevated but contained oil. Escalation = deal breaks, crude runs, and everything else corrects.

Today:

📰 Market Headlines: Iran escalation ripples through stocks, SpaceX drops below IPO price, Vertex buys Crinetics $10 billion, Fed minutes Wednesday
🤖 AI/Future/Tech: Claude goes mobile, Figma acquires vibe-coding startup, Netflix adds short-form, X rolls video editor
🚀 Market Movers: Vertex-Crinetics $10 billion, Primary Wave-Kobalt $1.5 billion, Caterpillar-Skycatch, id Software cuts 50%, Big 12-Monster Energy $20 million

More below.

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Iran attacked three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, including a Qatari LNG carrier and Saudi oil tanker, sending Brent crude soaring 5% to $75.50 per barrel and WTI climbing 5% to $72. The violence marks the second assault since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding weeks ago to end their conflict. In direct response, the US Treasury revoked the license that allowed Iran to export previously sanctioned crude oil globally, effectively dismantling a key concession from the now-tenuous agreement.

The attacks expose the fundamental power struggle we’re experiencing: Iran claims it must control transit through the strait while the US demands freedom of navigation. Ship-tracking data shows vessels are already rerouting around the southern Omani coast to avoid Iranian drones, once again injecting uncertainty into one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. "Iran probably can't enforce a tolling system in the strait, its effective leverage doesn't extend that far," says Gregory Brew, Iran analyst at Eurasia Group. "But these sporadic attacks inject enough uncertainty to preserve some of its wartime position." Qatar, which has served as mediator, denounced the attack as a direct threat to global energy security and international law.

More than the risk of a single oil spike, the concern is a total collapse of peace negotiations. While US officials told Reuters negotiations continue, the White House has made clear that any sanctions relief (like Iran's crude-selling license) is conditional on Tehran's compliance. If these attacks escalate into a cycle of retaliation, the agreement could shatter entirely, removing 2.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from the market. That's roughly 2.5% of global supply. Oil could easily test $85+ per barrel if geopolitical tensions escalate further, which would ripple through inflation expectations, airline costs, and consumer spending.

Our take: Watch the next 72 hours. If this turns into tit-for-tat strikes, the deal breaks and oil runs. Energy stocks (XLE, CVE, COP) could rally on supply concerns, but consumer discretionary (XRT, AMZN) likely gets hit. If a ceasefire holds, we're back to a messy status quo with generally lower oil prices.

US stocks slipped Tuesday as semiconductors dragged the Nasdaq lower and traders digested fresh escalation in Iran.

American forces carried out a "series of powerful strikes" against Iran late Tuesday in response to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The Treasury also revoked a license that had allowed Iran to export oil globally, stoking fears of supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped more than 2% to top $72 a barrel, while Brent surged over 3% to $74.

SpaceX cratered nearly 7% and closed below $150 for the first time since its IPO, even as a flood of bullish Wall Street initiations hit the tape. JPMorgan set a $225 target, Morgan Stanley went Street-high at $300, and Raymond James slapped an $800 price tag on shares. The problem? Nasdaq inclusion allowed early investors to offload shares to index funds, and the selling pressure outweighed the analyst cheerleading.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced a $10 billion deal to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, its largest acquisition bet ever. Vertex is paying $85 per share in cash, a 102% premium, for Crinetics and its recently launched acromegaly drug Palsonify. The company claims the deal could generate more than $5 billion in peak annual sales, but investors weren't convinced by the rich price tag. Vertex shares ticked lower in post-market trading.

Perplexity confirmed it plans to use Nvidia's new Vera CPUs, adding another name to the growing list of AI companies adopting the chip giant's central processing units. Nvidia expects to generate $20 billion in Vera sales by fiscal year-end. Perplexity's VP of Infrastructure said the chips ran AI agent coding tasks about 1.5 times faster than traditional CPUs. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Oracle have also signed on.

The Fed's June meeting minutes drop Wednesday afternoon, and investors will parse the document for clues about policymakers' thinking after Chairman Kevin Warsh's first meeting kept rates steady. Markets are trying to gauge whether the Iran situation changes the inflation calculus or keeps the Fed on hold longer than expected.

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