Israel-Iran Tensions: Will Oil Plunge—or Surge?

Good morning—we’re back with another edition of Stocks & Income. Tensions rose fast in the Middle East this week but cooled off between Musk and Trump—and America’s inflation test came back lower than expected.

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📰 Market Headlines

Stocks stalled mid-rally as a cooler-than-expected inflation report failed to spark another surge.

  • The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.5%, and the Dow finished flat.

  • May CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.2% forecast.

Israel is prepped to attack Iran, and the offensive would likely be carried out without support from the White House. Oil prices fell on the news, but could surge if war breaks out. Trump is still in the midst of nuclear talks with Tehran, and US personnel are being moved out of the area as a precaution.

Musk softens tone, sets robotaxi date. Elon Musk walked back his Trump feud, admitting his posts “went too far.” Musk also set June 22 as the new target for Tesla’s first public robotaxi rides. Overall, Tesla shares have risen 14.7% since last week’s lows—it turns out that the Musk-Trump fight was a huge buying opportunity.

Grocery inflation cools as egg prices drop. Egg prices fell 2.7% in May, leading to a month where grocery inflation continued to moderate. Food-at-home prices rose 0.3%, and May marked the 27th straight month that inflation for food at home was lower than for food away from home.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

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📊 Alternative investing news

  • Yale unveiled a $3 billion sale of private equity on the secondaries market, aiming to convert older assets into liquidity.

  • Gold rose 0.1% after US inflation data came in cooler than expected.

🤖 AI/Future/Tech News

  • The Browser Company launched Dia, an AI-native browser built on Chromium.

  • Tesla rolled out its robotaxi fleet in Austin, using remote backup drivers and geofencing to limit operations.

  • Paris-based Arlequin AI raised $5 million to scale its unsupervised AI platform.

🐔 This CEO Did NOT Chicken Out

This chicken shop CEO just made 19 employees millionaires—against the better judgment of investors.

Roark Capital just acquired a majority stake in Dave’s Hot Chicken for $1 billion, and the restaurant chain’s CEO Bill Phelps wanted to share the boon.

He gave all corporate employees, store managers, and assistant managers a bonus that was about equal to their yearly salary, according to CNBC.

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⚔️ Trade wars

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated the possibility of extending the 90-day tariff pause for trading partners engaged in "good faith" negotiations.

  • India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar voiced confidence about reaching a US trade agreement before the tariff suspension ends.

🪙 Crypto

  • The US Senate advanced the GENIUS Act for stablecoin regulation with a 68-30 vote.

  • Ukraine’s parliament proposed a bill to let its central bank add Bitcoin to national reserves.

  • Crypto VC deals plunged to 62 rounds in May, the lowest monthly total in 2025.

  • The Fed rate alluded to a possible cut this summer after the soft CPI and jobs data came out.

🐦️ Twitter roundup

We’ve gone through and picked out some Twitter posts we think you’ll get value from.

  1. Why an attack from Israel on Iran could put US rate hikes back on the table

  2. Nintendo Switch 2 release numbers blow other consoles out of the water

🌍 International Markets

  1. 🇫🇷 The Bank of France cut its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6%.

  2.  🇨🇦 Canada's recession probability hit 65% over the next 12 months.

  3. 🇦🇺 Australian business confidence jumped into positive territory for the first time since January.

🎤 What you said last time

It looks to me like China just put Trump in his place. What a terrible deal.

🚚 Market movers

  • Microsoft fast-tracked a Pentagon-specific version of its Copilot AI, set for release this summer.

  • Big Lots reopened 78 stores across nine states in its final comeback phase.

  • ICE agents detained 74 workers at Glenn Valley Foods’ Omaha plant, cutting staffing by 70% and squeezing output to 20% of normal.

📊 Earnings this week

  • Chewy beat Q1 estimates with 8% revenue growth and a 3.8% rise in active customers, and shares tumbled 11%

  • Oracle topped Q4 expectations with strong cloud demand and a 14% jump in its largest unit; shares surged 7% after hours.

  • Vera Bradley posted a 36% revenue drop and a wider-than-expected loss, marking its fourth straight earnings miss, so shares sank 12%.

  • Victoria’s Secret reported flat sales and cut its full-year income forecast by 30 million, while facing pressure from BBRC International; shares slipped 3.5%.

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📺 What to watch today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,
Brandon with Stefan & Wyatt

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