First, AMD announces the OpenAI deal, sending AMD stock up almost 40%. Then yesterday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the deal was “clever, I guess,” but also that he’s “surprised that they would give away 10% of the company before they even built it.” And later that day, the US government approved Nvidia to sell billions of dollars of chips to the UAE, sending NVDA to all time highs overnight.

Added to the AI hype are the new Fed minutes, where officials (barely) favored two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 in a 10-9 vote.

However, all is not calm amid the bullish headlines. The International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England both issued warnings that we’re in bubble territory. Add to those warnings the fact that retail traders broke records last month by buying $100B in American stocks, and it starts to look like the market party stands on a knife’s edge.

We’re exploring that more below.

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Stocks climbed to new records on Wednesday, following the release of Fed minutes showing most officials expect more rate cuts this year.

AI chip stocks rallied again after a swirl of megadeals. AMD jumped ~40% on its new partnership with OpenAI, while Nvidia reached new all-time highs overnight following reports of a $2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s xAI along with US government approval to sell chips to the UAE. Analysts warn of “circularity” in the AI market as Big Tech firms invest in each other’s infrastructure, fueling bubble chatter.

Bay Area tech layoffs piled up in the meantime as Google, SAP, Oracle, and Cruise disclosed a combined 386 job cuts, led by Advanced Pressure Technology’s 237-person plant shutdown in Napa.

Both the IMF and the Bank of England are cautioning investors that we’re in a bubble, and they’re not the only ones. “If you think of a bubble of about five stages, we’re probably in stage three,” said a senior investment strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen. The IMF’s chief, Kristalina Georgieva had similar things to say. “Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay.”

And retail traders bought $100 billion in US stocks last month, a new record. The question at hand is whether this represents actual belief in the market or just FOMO-based buying that will fall apart in a pullback.

It’s up to you to decide whether you think we’re in a bubble. We’re trying to present you with all the facts we can, but in the end, your own decisions are what drive your portfolio. Prudent investors might watch downturns closely in the near future and see if markets buy the dip or start panic selling to get a better read.

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Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc