šŸš‚ The market steamed ahead last week

šŸŒ Why this week could be a banana skin.

In honor of the proposed capital gains tax hike, my book recommendation this week is the award-winning The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt.

When Vanderbilt passed away in 1877, his estate was worth an estimated $100 million. His fortune represented:

  • 1.25% of the American GDP

  • One out of every 17 dollars in circulation

Itā€™s an epic story of a truly self-made titan. Check it out.

If you like this, browse through the rest of my curated book recommendations.

šŸŒ¾ From the farm to your bank account

To feed the worldā€™s growing population, farmers will need to produce as much food over the next 40 years as they produced in the last ten thousand.

We'll need big investments in farms and agribusinesses. That's why ā€‹Harvest Returnsā€‹ offers exclusive private opportunities for investing in farming and ranching operations.

It's hard to imagine a world where farmland investing isn't valuable. That's where Harvest Returns comes in.

Invest in:

šŸšœ Ranches and Farms

  • Invest in helping American farmers start + grow operations.

  • You can invest in projects such as hydroponic farms, indoor aquaculture facilities, or vineyards for $5,000

šŸŒ± AgTech Companies

Lately we've been exploring Harvest's newest offering: their ā€‹Private Credit Fundā€‹.

šŸ†• Private Credit Fund

  • Diversified assets across varied agriculture sectors+geos

  • 1-3 year maturity debt notes (to leverage high interest rates)

  • Quarterly cash distributions.

  • First distribution is projected for JuneHigh targets: 14.5% IRR and a 1.5x exit multiple

šŸ“° Market Headlines

  • Wall Street rallied on FridayĀ as tech earnings spurred a market surge.

  • The upcoming week is packed with a Fed meeting, the April jobs report, and our busiest earnings week so far.

    • The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady, but Chair Powell is hinting at a more hawkish approach due to ongoing inflation concerns.

    • Apple, Amazon, Paypal, and (too many) others report this week.

  • The president of the World Economic Forum warned that global debt ratios are approaching levels not seen since theĀ Napoleonic Wars, nearing 100% of global GDP.

  • In a call with Israeli PM Netanyahu, President Biden reiterated his stance against a potential IsraeliĀ invasion of Rafah.

šŸ•¶ļø Market Vibes

šŸŽ° Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ā€‹Kalshiā€‹, the prediction market.

GDP forecasts bounced back as vibes overtook logic and or reason.

šŸ˜± Fear and Greed Index

šŸŽ¤ What you said last time

šŸ“ˆ Trends you need to know

Pundits have strongly opposed President Bidenā€™s proposed capital gains tax hike, saying it would destroy the economy. However, history shows that it would have almost no impact on capital investment or stock market returns.

šŸ§  What do you think?

šŸ’¬ Have your say

Last week, many of you said itā€™s better to tax billionaires than cut spending.

Studies show that preferential capital gains tax rates disproportionally (and almost exclusively) benefit the top 0.1% of Americans.

So now thereā€™s a real-life way to test this.

What do you think about the proposed capital gains tax rate hike to 45%

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

šŸ“Š Stocks

Get $20 free shares at ā€‹public.comā€‹ using code ALTSCO.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • BHPĀ is considering an improved takeover offer for Anglo American after its initial $39 billion bid was rejected.

  • Exxon MobilĀ missed Q1 earnings expectations, shares tumbled over 3%.

  • Colgate-PalmoliveĀ beat estimates, rising shares by 1.2%.

  • Charter CommunicationsĀ missed earnings and revenue fell short of expectations causing stock price to slide 2.5%.

  • ChevronĀ earnings beat expectations but revenue missed estimates by 3.9%; shares edged up 0.8%.

  • It's a busy week for earnings reports:

    • Monday: Chegg (CHGG), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Logitech (LOGI), Paramount (PARA)

    • Tuesday:Ā Amazon (AMZN), AMD (AMD), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), McDonald's (MCD), Pinterest (PINS), PayPal (PYPL), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Starbucks (SBUX), 3M (MMM)

    • Wednesday:Ā CVS (CVS), Etsy (ETSY), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Marriott International (MAR), Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), Qualcomm (QCOM)

    • Thursday:Ā Apple (AAPL), Block (SQ), Coinbase (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), Expedia (EXPE), Moderna (MRNA), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Peloton (PTON)

    • Friday:Ā fuboTV (FUBO), Hershey (HSY)

Market movers

  • The US Department of Justice closed its probe into theĀ Mercedes-Benz diesel emissions scandal,Ā and the automaker no longer faces charges.

  • Paramount Global's board has prepared to oust CEOĀ Bob BakishĀ as soon as Monday.

  • Nigeria secured aĀ $600 million investmentĀ in seaport infrastructure from Danish shipping giant Maersk.

  • American Electric Power launched aĀ voluntary severance programĀ targeting job cuts as it faces growing financial challenges.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • The US birth rateĀ dipped to a record lowĀ in 2023, with a fertility rate of 1.6 kids per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

  • The digital ad market isĀ bouncing backĀ as Meta, Alphabet and Snap reported ad revenue growth at rates not seen in at least two years.

šŸŒ Global Perspectives

  • šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ Tesla CEO Elon MuskĀ arrivedĀ in Beijing on an unannounced visit to discuss the rollout of Full Self-Driving software.

  • šŸ‡®šŸ‡¹ VeniceĀ launchedĀ a five-dollar tourist entrance fee to reduce overcrowding on busy days.

  • šŸ‡­šŸ‡¹ Haiti's transition council willĀ voteĀ for the country's next president on Tuesday.

  • šŸ‡ØšŸ‡± Three police officers wereĀ killedĀ in southern Chile amid escalating tensions with the Mapuche Indigenous peoples.

  • šŸ‡©šŸ‡Ŗ Germany's parliamentĀ weakenedĀ the country's climate change legislation.

šŸ“Š Crypto

  • TheĀ IMF reported Bitcoin can promote financial independence for countries and act as a hedge against instability.

  • $2 trillion asset managerĀ BNY Mellon disclosedĀ investments in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETFs.

  • The SEC delayed decisions on spot Ethereum ETFs, with approvalĀ prospects looking bleak.

  • Yuga Labs, creator of Bored Apes,Ā resumed layoffs, with the CEO saying the company "lost its way."

šŸ§  Errata

  • A self-driving Waymo car was spottedĀ careening down the wrong sideĀ of a San Francisco street, nearly colliding with unicyclists. [Ed: yes, unicyclists]

  • Kristi Noem's VP oddsĀ plummetedĀ after she bragged of killing her puppy and a family goat in a new book.

  • Fewer men than ever are part of the U.S. workforce.

  • 22 train cars, some filled with propane, derailed and burst into flames in New Mexico.

šŸ“ŗ What to Watch Today

Thatā€™s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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