🚂 The market steamed ahead last week

🍌 Why this week could be a banana skin.

In honor of the proposed capital gains tax hike, my book recommendation this week is the award-winning The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt.

When Vanderbilt passed away in 1877, his estate was worth an estimated $100 million. His fortune represented:

  • 1.25% of the American GDP

  • One out of every 17 dollars in circulation

It’s an epic story of a truly self-made titan. Check it out.

If you like this, browse through the rest of my curated book recommendations.

🌾 From the farm to your bank account

To feed the world’s growing population, farmers will need to produce as much food over the next 40 years as they produced in the last ten thousand.

We'll need big investments in farms and agribusinesses. That's why ​Harvest Returns​ offers exclusive private opportunities for investing in farming and ranching operations.

It's hard to imagine a world where farmland investing isn't valuable. That's where Harvest Returns comes in.

Invest in:

🚜 Ranches and Farms

  • Invest in helping American farmers start + grow operations.

  • You can invest in projects such as hydroponic farms, indoor aquaculture facilities, or vineyards for $5,000

🌱 AgTech Companies

Lately we've been exploring Harvest's newest offering: their ​Private Credit Fund​.

🆕 Private Credit Fund

  • Diversified assets across varied agriculture sectors+geos

  • 1-3 year maturity debt notes (to leverage high interest rates)

  • Quarterly cash distributions.

  • First distribution is projected for JuneHigh targets: 14.5% IRR and a 1.5x exit multiple

📰 Market Headlines

  • Wall Street rallied on Friday as tech earnings spurred a market surge.

  • The upcoming week is packed with a Fed meeting, the April jobs report, and our busiest earnings week so far.

    • The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady, but Chair Powell is hinting at a more hawkish approach due to ongoing inflation concerns.

    • Apple, Amazon, Paypal, and (too many) others report this week.

  • The president of the World Economic Forum warned that global debt ratios are approaching levels not seen since the Napoleonic Wars, nearing 100% of global GDP.

  • In a call with Israeli PM Netanyahu, President Biden reiterated his stance against a potential Israeli invasion of Rafah.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ​Kalshi​, the prediction market.

GDP forecasts bounced back as vibes overtook logic and or reason.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🎤 What you said last time

📈 Trends you need to know

Pundits have strongly opposed President Biden’s proposed capital gains tax hike, saying it would destroy the economy. However, history shows that it would have almost no impact on capital investment or stock market returns.

🧠 What do you think?

💬 Have your say

Last week, many of you said it’s better to tax billionaires than cut spending.

Studies show that preferential capital gains tax rates disproportionally (and almost exclusively) benefit the top 0.1% of Americans.

So now there’s a real-life way to test this.

What do you think about the proposed capital gains tax rate hike to 45%

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

📊 Stocks

Get $20 free shares at ​public.com​ using code ALTSCO.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • BHP is considering an improved takeover offer for Anglo American after its initial $39 billion bid was rejected.

  • Exxon Mobil missed Q1 earnings expectations, shares tumbled over 3%.

  • Colgate-Palmolive beat estimates, rising shares by 1.2%.

  • Charter Communications missed earnings and revenue fell short of expectations causing stock price to slide 2.5%.

  • Chevron earnings beat expectations but revenue missed estimates by 3.9%; shares edged up 0.8%.

  • It's a busy week for earnings reports:

    • Monday: Chegg (CHGG), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Logitech (LOGI), Paramount (PARA)

    • Tuesday: Amazon (AMZN), AMD (AMD), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), McDonald's (MCD), Pinterest (PINS), PayPal (PYPL), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Starbucks (SBUX), 3M (MMM)

    • Wednesday: CVS (CVS), Etsy (ETSY), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Marriott International (MAR), Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), Qualcomm (QCOM)

    • Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Block (SQ), Coinbase (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), Expedia (EXPE), Moderna (MRNA), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Peloton (PTON)

    • Friday: fuboTV (FUBO), Hershey (HSY)

Market movers

  • The US Department of Justice closed its probe into the Mercedes-Benz diesel emissions scandal, and the automaker no longer faces charges.

  • Paramount Global's board has prepared to oust CEO Bob Bakish as soon as Monday.

  • Nigeria secured a $600 million investment in seaport infrastructure from Danish shipping giant Maersk.

  • American Electric Power launched a voluntary severance program targeting job cuts as it faces growing financial challenges.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • The US birth rate dipped to a record low in 2023, with a fertility rate of 1.6 kids per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

  • The digital ad market is bouncing back as Meta, Alphabet and Snap reported ad revenue growth at rates not seen in at least two years.

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇨🇳 Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrived in Beijing on an unannounced visit to discuss the rollout of Full Self-Driving software.

  • 🇮🇹 Venice launched a five-dollar tourist entrance fee to reduce overcrowding on busy days.

  • 🇭🇹 Haiti's transition council will vote for the country's next president on Tuesday.

  • 🇨🇱 Three police officers were killed in southern Chile amid escalating tensions with the Mapuche Indigenous peoples.

  • 🇩🇪 Germany's parliament weakened the country's climate change legislation.

📊 Crypto

  • The IMF reported Bitcoin can promote financial independence for countries and act as a hedge against instability.

  • $2 trillion asset manager BNY Mellon disclosed investments in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETFs.

  • The SEC delayed decisions on spot Ethereum ETFs, with approval prospects looking bleak.

  • Yuga Labs, creator of Bored Apes, resumed layoffs, with the CEO saying the company "lost its way."

🧠 Errata

  • A self-driving Waymo car was spotted careening down the wrong side of a San Francisco street, nearly colliding with unicyclists. [Ed: yes, unicyclists]

  • Kristi Noem's VP odds plummeted after she bragged of killing her puppy and a family goat in a new book.

  • Fewer men than ever are part of the U.S. workforce.

  • 22 train cars, some filled with propane, derailed and burst into flames in New Mexico.

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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