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🔔 The Opening Bell
Good morning.
Trump has betrayed confidence in US Job Report data, according to some—after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised May and June employment down by 258,000 jobs last Friday, Trump fired the BLS’s commissioner in dramatic fashion.
The labor data (and subsequent firing) combined with new tariffs last week led to the sharpest stock market pullback we’ve seen in months. Is this a correction, or the beginnings of a larger downturn? Now might be a time for investors to consider their positions and look at taking profits.
Meanwhile, the AI feud got nastier. Anthropic cut OpenAI off from its Claude models after accusing them of unfair benchmarking with GPT-5. OpenAI says it’s normal practice. Anthropic isn’t buying it.
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📰 Market Headlines
Stock futures edged higher Sunday following Wall Street's worst weekly decline in months.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.2%, Nasdaq rose 0.3%, and Dow moved up 0.1% as markets attempt to recover from Friday's sharp selloff.
China stared down US tariff threats and refused to stop buying oil from Russia and Iran, even as a 100% tariff looms. China imports up to 90% of Iran’s oil exports and over 1.3 million barrels per day from Russia, calling US pressure “coercion” and vowing to defend its interests.
Anthropic slammed the door on OpenAI by revoking access to its Claude models. Anthropic claims OpenAI broke the rules by benchmarking Claude against GPT-5. OpenAI insists this is “industry standard.” AI rivalries are heating up, and will likely continue to do so as the top AI foundational model companies race to AGI (artificial general intelligence).
Boeing faces its first strike since 1996 in St. Louis as union machinists rejected a contract with a 20% wage hike. About 3,200 workers who build F-15s and missiles are set to walk out, echoing last year’s labor unrest in aerospace.
President Trump axed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer just hours after a dismal jobs report with steep downward revisions for May and June. Trump called the numbers “phony.” Her predecessor, also a Trump pick, called the firing a damaging blow to the agency’s credibility.
New data this week could make things clearer:
After months of “up only” momentum in markets, one does wonder if investors were looking for a reason to allow the market to correct itself a bit. With the combination of labor data revisions and new tariffs, investors may have been eager to doubt their previous optimism (although stocks are already rising again today). There’s also a historical case for increased volatility in the coming months based on $VIX data. Either way, there’s a slew of new economic data reports coming out this week that should further shed light on what’s really happening.
Which asset looks like the best investment to you at the moment?
😱 Fear and Greed Index
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
China’s real estate market is looking bad—could this be China’s 2008?
US tariffs skyrocketed to 18.3%, the highest since 1934 according to Yale University.
Are you living in one of the top 10 US cities for earning potential?
Switzerland reeled from a surprise 39% White House tariff. Swiss officials called the move "devastating" with thousands of jobs at risk, after expecting lower rates.
It turns out that “social spending” derails financial goals for 60% of millennials and Gen Z. The average adult drops $250 monthly on social activities.
❓ Guess the Stock, by AltIndex
Which of these companies just increased its job listings by 320%?
Robert Half ($RHI)
Republic Services ($RSG)
Paramount Global ($PARA)
AMC ($AMC)
Which ticker saw 180% growth in Reddit mentions this weekend?
GoPro ($GPRO)
Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B)
Intuitive Machines ($LUNR)
OpenDoor ($OPEN)
Which company’s Facebook PTAT (“people are talking about this”) rose by 145% over the past week?
GameStop ($GME)
American Eagle Outfitters ($AEO)
McDonalds ($MCD)
Yatra.com ($YTRA)
🚚 Market movers
The UK’s financial regulator proposed a redress scheme for car loan mis-selling that could cost banks up to £18 billion.
OPEC+ will raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September to claw back market share.
Kia America recalled over 201,000 Telluride vehicles due to a faulty door trim.
Merck is set to cut 6,000 jobs to save $3 billion annually by 2027 as Keytruda’s patent expiration looms.
🪙 Crypto
Trump Media stashed $2 billion in Bitcoin and related securities while allocating $300 million to options strategies in Q2.
US crypto ETFs bled $1 billion on Friday, marking their worst day in months.
Cathie Wood scooped up $30 million in Coinbase shares after the stock tumbled 16.7%, plus another $17 million in BitMine shares.
SEC hits the road with crypto roundtables starting August 4 in Berkeley, giving small crypto teams (under 10 employees) rare face time with regulators outside Washington.
Swiss authorities fished out a statue of Satoshi Nakamoto from a lake in Lugano after thieves tossed it in.
💰 Alternative Investing News
Private fund giants muscled into the UK's £1.4 trillion pension market, with Brookfield and Apollo-backed insurers announcing deals worth $10.7 billion last month.
Hedge funds boosted bullish oil bets by 39,779 lots to 299,295 as President Trump's threat of Russian tariffs sparked supply concerns.
Goldman Sachs recommended clients go long on copper just one day before Trump's tariff decision sent prices crashing by a record amount.
🤖 AI/Future/Tech News
OpenAI catapulted to an $8.3 billion raise at a $300 billion valuation, months ahead of schedule.
Nvidia’s plans to sell H20 AI chips in China bogged down as a backlog at the U.S. Commerce Department stalled license approvals.
French AI startup Mistral sought $1 billion at a $10 billion valuation, negotiating with VC firms and Abu Dhabi’s MGX.
OpenAI’s MathGen team clinched a gold medal at the International Math Olympiad, a milestone in its push for advanced AI reasoning.
🌍 International Markets
🇨🇭 Swiss markets braced for losses after President Trump slapped a punitive 39% tariff on the country's exports, stunning investors during their national holiday.
🇪🇺 European shares tumbled 1.9% on Friday, marking their steepest one-day plunge since April as President Trump's tariff blitz rattled markets across the continent.
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady at 0.5% but revised inflation forecasts upward to 2.7% for the current fiscal year, signaling potential rate hikes if food prices continue their persistent climb.
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe's economy roared toward 6% growth in 2025, bouncing back from just 2% last year as Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube pointed to improved harvests, stable exchange rates, and commodity price strength.
🎤️ What you said last time
“The actions against Canada are especially troubling, and Trump's 'fake' rhetoric about Canada treating us badly and fentanyl.”
📊 Earnings
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📺 What to watch today
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Cheers,
Brandon with Stefan & Wyatt
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