🏠 Mortgage rates keep falling

🛢️ Plus, is OPEC still relevant?

*past 24-hour performance

We’re taking next week off. You should, too.

📰 Market Headlines

  • Strong earnings reports drove the major indices up yesterday, while crypto fell and treasuries were mixed.

  • US mortgage rates fell for the eighth week in a row. They’re now the lowest since June.

  • US crude oil production hit a record high last week at 13.3 million barrels. Is OPEC still relevant?

  • Weekly jobless claims rose less than expected last week.

  • The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook survey declined more than expected.

  • US Q3 GDP was unexpectedly revised downward from 5.2% to 4.9%.

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🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts come from Kalshi, our favorite prediction market. Get $25 with this link.

  • New car sales in 2024 are forecast to hit the highest level since 2019.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

The winner of the next presidential election will have a tremendous impact on the economy and markets.

What's your view?

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🎤 What you said last time

The survey result was as divided as the country is right now.

📊 Stocks

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Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • The US government may intervene in Nippon Steel’s $14.1 billion acquisition of US Steel.

  • Cisco is acquiring Isovalent, a security and networking startup.

  • Micron beat Q1 revenue forecasts and guided higher for Q2. Shares were up 8%.

  • Cintas also raised guidance, sending shares up 6%.

  • A rising tide lifted all boats as Carnival lost less than expected. The cruise line was up 6%, while both Norwegian and Royal Caribbean added 5%.

  • Pivotal Research upgraded Spotify from Hold to Buy, sending shares up 2%.

  • Based on weaker consumer demand in 2024, Nike guided down and will look for $2 billion in cost savings over the next three years.

Market movers

  • Employees at a Wells Fargo bank in New Mexico voted to unionize, the first time that workers at a major US bank have attempted to organize in the modern era.

  • Remember the Elon Musk-inspired Hyperloop? It’s dead.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

📊 Income

  • Brookfield Property’s credit was cut to junk (BB).

  • A look at the new 8%+ yielding BDC baby bonds.

📊 Crypto

  • Argentina has “ratified and confirmed” that contracts can be set in Bitcoin.

  • Solana’s approaching $100 as altcoins take center stage.

🌍 Global Perspectives

🇨🇿 Yesterday, a 24-year-old Czech man named David Kozák murdered 14 people in the country’s deadliest mass shooting since 1993. Details are scarce, but the shooting is related to — or was inspired by — the 2005 forest killer murders.

The face of a madman.

It’s thought Kozák also murdered a thirty-two-year-old man and his two-month-old daughter a week ago in preparation for the spree, which matches the Forest Killer’s MO.

🇨🇳 China added new restrictions to the export of rare-earth magnet, mining, ore-selection, and refining tech yesterday.

🇨🇳 Chinese regulators announced sweeping limits on online gaming spend and rewards today, wiping $80 billion in market value off TenCent and NetEase’s market caps.

🇬🇧 The UK is probably in a recession.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A recent study found that 34% of Wales is “a little bit queer.”

🇦🇴 Unhappy with oil production cuts, Angola is leaving OPEC.

🇯🇵 Japanese inflation hit a 16-month low.

🇸🇪 Sweden reduced growth guidance for 2024.

💎 Wealth Watch

  • Do you have to pay taxes on your Social Security income?

🗳️ Outside the Box

📺 What to Watch Today

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

There’s a lot of attention on America’s southern border, but more Americans are moving to Mexico than ever.

That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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