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Good afternoon.
NVIDIA reports earnings today after the closing bell, and it will potentially be the most high-stakes earnings report in the history of the semiconductor industry. Markets are on edge, because this earnings report will shed light on whether Abundance Theory pans out or Citrini and Michael Burry are right about us just being in a bubble.
In this edition, we’re breaking down the two faces of the NVIDIA Bellwether, why Blackwell and Rubin are the only names that matter tonight, and what a "miss" or "beat" means for the rest of your portfolio.
Let’s begin.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
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📰 Daily Edge: The "Great Filter" of AI Earnings
Today’s NVIDIA earnings report will be a great real-time test for Abundance Theory and the Jevon’s Paradox, which is the phenomenon where introducing new technology actually increases production and value (rather than destroying it, as many believe).
To be clear, we believe in Abundance Theory personally, but not everyone does. To each their own, and especially to you all, our readers, who should always do your own research!
Since software companies like Adobe and Workday have recently been punished by Anthropic’s new Claude tools, investors are looking to NVIDIA to prove that the physical demand for intelligence is still accelerating.
Of course, one earnings report doesn’t determine if AI lives or dies. But it’s a key data point that tells us whether the whole industry plans to grow or not (i.e., whether they’re buying Nvidia’s chips or not).
The implied move: The options market is pricing in a 5.6% swing in either direction. For a $4.7 trillion company, that’s a $300 billion move (essentially the entire market cap of Netflix!) on the line.
Outcome | What we’re looking for | Impact on AI stocks (predicted, not guaranteed) |
The bull case | Revenue >$66B & Guidance >$72B. Blackwell chip ramp is "extraordinary" and Rubin production is ahead of schedule. | Relief rally. Validates the Jevons Paradox. If NVDA is selling more chips, it means software agents are creating more work, not less. PLTR, AMD, and MSFT likely rip higher. |
The bear case | Revenue meets, but Guidance is "cautious." Mentions of "digestion periods" for hyperscalers or supply bottlenecks for HBM4 memory. | The Reckoning. Confirms the "Doomer" theory. If the infrastructure build-out pauses, the market will assume the ROI on AI isn't there yet. Broad tech selloff likely follows. |
📈 Company of the Day: NVIDIA ($NVDA)
It’s obvious that Nvidia is basically the central bank of the AI economy at this point. While the stock has been range-bound since November 2025, its internal metrics suggest the business is still going strong.
Looking at the "Abundance" moat:
Sovereign AI: This is the new wildcard. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Japan are now buying GPUs directly to build national clouds. This "Sovereign" segment is projected to add $20B+ to the top line this year alone.
Rubin is the future: Even as Blackwell ships at scale, CEO Jensen Huang has already signaled that the next-gen Rubin architecture (3nm) is in production. They are outrunning their own product cycles, which is great for business.
The stats (AltIndex data):
Analyst sentiment: 93% “buy” ratings.
Employee rating: 92% positive, which is almost unheard of.
Implied frowth: Wall Street expects $1.52 EPS, which is a 71% jump from last year.
The long-term perspective: Whether the stock goes up 5% or down 5% tonight is noise. The real question is: Are we building enough "roads" for the trillions of AI agents coming online? If the answer is yes, NVIDIA remains the primary toll booth.
📰 Market Headlines
Software fear recedes: Anthropic’s new enterprise partnerships with Salesforce and FactSet helped reverse Monday’s brutal software industry selloff.
Dimon issues warning: JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that current market leverage and optimism mirror the pre-2008 era.
Home depot beats: Home Depot topped earnings estimates despite ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure within the housing market.
AI job risks: Goldman Sachs warns that rapid AI deployment could push unemployment to four point five percent by year-end.
Waymo scales up: Waymo expanded robotaxi services to four major Texas and Florida cities, targeting one million weekly rides.
Stripe eyes PayPal: Fintech giant Stripe is reportedly exploring an acquisition of PayPal, though no deal terms were disclosed.
Fed ends debanking: The Federal Reserve proposed removing reputation risk from bank supervision to protect lawful crypto-related business accounts.
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🤫 Insider Trading
🚚 Market Movers
Waymo opened robotaxi services in four Texas and Florida cities, reaching 10 US markets. The company provides 400,000 weekly rides and targets 1 million by year-end after raising $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.
ADT acquired Origin Wireless for $170 million. The startup's AI uses Wi-Fi signal bounces to detect movement without sensors, cutting false alarms.
Canva acquired motion graphics maker Cavalry and video ad startup MangoAI as software stocks crater. Rival Adobe dropped 30% this year while Canva hit $4 billion in revenue, up 36%.
🎙 Make Your Voice Heard
Where will NVIDIA be 24 hours from now?
🎤️ What you said last time
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
US retail sales jumped 3.8% year-over-year in December, the best since 2022, with Hobby Lobby up 17.6%.
Ethanol generated $50 billion in GDP and supported 317,000 jobs, spending $24 billion on corn as farmers face their worst conditions in 50 years.
Gen Z enjoys cleaning, and brands like Clorox and Scrub Daddy are leaning in with humor and multi-purpose products.
Supreme Court tariff relief may not lower prices; businesses are recouping losses, not passing savings down.
US waste management is projected to reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, driven by AI-powered recycling and waste-to-energy technologies.
EPA deregulation may eliminate stop-start engines and solar coatings from your next car.
The dollar is projected to fall in 2026, but it's cyclical, not structural, 45% gains since 2011 remain intact.
📜 Quote of the Day
The four most dangerous words in investing are: “This time it’s different.”
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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc
The information provided in Stocks & Income is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Stocks & Income is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or licensed financial planner. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We may hold positions in or receive compensation from the companies or products mentioned. Disclosures will be made where applicable. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
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