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The biggest risk to oil may no longer be a blocked shipping lane. It may be a lack of buyers.
With the Strait of Hormuz back open, global crude supply is flowing more freely again. Normally that's good news. But JPMorgan is warning the market could soon face the opposite problem: too much oil and not enough demand to absorb it. China's imports remain sluggish, OPEC+ is adding more barrels, and the conversation is shifting from supply shortages to oversupply concerns.
Meanwhile, the broader market is sending mixed signals. A disappointing jobs report cooled expectations for additional Fed tightening, yet Wall Street continues to push profit forecasts higher. Semiconductor stocks remain on a historic run, AI investment isn't slowing down, and optimism around corporate earnings continues to outweigh concerns about slowing economic momentum.
The second half of the year is shaping up to be a balancing act. Can AI-driven growth and resilient earnings keep powering stocks higher, or will weaker labor data and softer global demand begin to catch up with markets?
Today:
📰 Market Headlines: Jobs report disappoints, OPEC+ boosts production, Wall Street stays optimistic
🤖 AI/Future/Tech: Hollywood's AI battle heats up, Alibaba restricts AI tools, Google DeepMind union talks stall
💼 Market Movers: JPMorgan boosts shareholder returns, Cisco expands AI while cutting jobs, Yara makes a $1.3B acquisition
Let's get started.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
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📉 Oil's Next Challenge Isn't Supply. It's Finding Buyers.
The Strait of Hormuz is open again, meaning oil exports from the Persian Gulf are ramping back up after months of disruption. While that removes a major geopolitical risk, JPMorgan believes it could create an entirely different headache: a market that's suddenly getting more oil than it currently needs.
A key reason is China. For much of the past year, China helped prop up global oil demand by importing massive amounts of crude. But during the conflict, those purchases dropped sharply as the country adjusted its energy needs. Now, with supply returning, that crucial source of demand hasn't returned with it, raising the possibility of a short-term oversupply.
JPMorgan doesn't expect prices to crash overnight. Refiners could step back into the market, and countries that tapped into emergency reserves may eventually need to replenish them. Still, those demand catalysts may take time, especially as the International Energy Agency projects global oil demand to fall by 1.1 million barrels per day this year.
The bigger picture is that the oil market is entering a new phase. Instead of worrying about whether enough oil can reach the market, investors are starting to ask whether there's enough demand to absorb it. That shift could keep pressure on crude prices even as geopolitical tensions continue to cool.
📰 Market Headlines
Markets closed mixed Thursday as investors digested a weaker-than-expected jobs report and recalibrated their rate hike expectations.
The S&P 500 closed flat, the Nasdaq fell 0.8%, and the Dow gained 1.1%.
The June jobs report came in softer than expected, with the US economy adding just 57,000 jobs last month, roughly half what economists had forecast. May's massive 172,000 addition was revised down to 129,000, and April's tally was lowered to 148,000 from 179,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%, but the labor force participation rate dropped 0.3 percentage points and has now fallen a full percentage point since November. Long-term unemployment climbed by 286,000 over the past year, signaling cracks beneath the surface of an otherwise resilient labor market.
Rate hike bets cooled slightly after the report hit, with traders pulling back odds of a hike this year from 84% on Wednesday to roughly 75% on Thursday. Markets are still fully pricing in one Fed rate hike by year-end, but the weaker jobs data eased some of the urgency around the central bank's next move. KEY POINT: Chairman Kevin Warsh has focused heavily on inflation in recent weeks, and many economists believe inflation and unemployment may not be particularly linked right now… so inflation data is the thing to watch as earnings season approaches.
OPEC+ approved another modest oil quota increase for August, according to Bloomberg, as Gulf shipments continue recovering from the Iran war disruptions. Oil prices have stabilized in recent weeks after the US-Iran ceasefire, offering some relief to consumers who've been hammered by elevated gas prices.
Wall Street analysts keep boosting profit outlooks even as geopolitical tensions linger. S&P 500 earnings are now expected to jump 20% over the next 12 months, a growth rate historically seen only during post-recession recoveries. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson noted that profit revisions climbing while stock prices fall rarely happens during geopolitical crises, and historically signals strong performance ahead. JPMorgan recently upped its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800, fueled by optimism around the AI build-out and resilient corporate earnings.
Chip stocks continue their blowout run, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posting its best quarter on record and returning investors roughly 84% since January 1. Micron rocketed 252% in the first half of the year, Intel surged 243%, and AMD climbed 165%, all driven by demand and hype around memory and storage sales. Bank of America's Vivek Arya told clients that "memory chip shortages and price inflation remain the critical moving pieces" as the physical AI build-out rushes forward. The iShares Expanded tech and software ETF is down 12% on the year, and even the Magnificent Seven have lost investors 2% over the past six months, underscoring just how imbalanced the tech trade has become.
This week's economic calendar is relatively light, with Monday's S&P Global and ISM services index readings headlining the slate. PepsiCo reports Thursday, offering insight into the state of the American consumer, while Delta Air Lines reports Friday with a read on the lasting effects of the Iran war and the energy crisis it kicked off.
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🤖 AI/Future/Tech News
An EU politician investigating spyware got hacked with Pegasus by one of NSO Group's own government clients while serving on an oversight committee.
Midjourney filed discovery motions forcing Disney, Warner Bros, and Universal to reveal their AI practices in production, flipping Hollywood's copyright fight.
Two members of Congress disclosed SpaceX stock buys days after the $2 trillion IPO, one sitting on Armed Services and the other on Financial Services.
Alibaba banned employees from using Anthropic's Claude Code, classifying it as high-risk and directing staff to its Qoder tool instead.
Google DeepMind's London unionization talks stalled early after senior management no-showed the opening meeting, with employees alleging union-busting.
🤫 Insider Trading
🚚 Market Movers
Cisco is rolling out AI agents to all 90,000 employees by August while cutting 4,000 jobs the same quarter. AI already generates 80-90% of first-draft SEC filings in finance.
Yara is acquiring a Gulf Coast ammonia plant in Texas for $1.3 billion, adding 1.3 million metric tons of annual capacity.
JPMorgan Chase authorized a $50 billion buyback and 10% dividend hike after passing the Fed stress test.
Dish filed for Chapter 11 and is shutting down Project Genesis, its $20/month unlimited hotspot service, effective Aug. 31.
Nike closed its Fitness Studios in Texas and California and consolidated tech after laying off 1,400 workers, also shuttering its five-story NYC flagship.
🎙 Make Your Voice Heard
Which headline will matter most by year-end?
🎤️ What you said last time
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
Three dads turned $750 into $35 million in hat sales in four years; Dad Gang now in Lids stores with Gary Vee backing.
Americans gave a record $617.2 billion to charity in 2025, even as households felt the squeeze from elevated costs of living.
About $394 billion came from individuals, up 1.4% when adjusted for inflation.
Roughly $124 trillion is expected to change hands to Millennials and Gen Xers by 2048, a shift that could dramatically reshape the future of giving.
World Cup fans spent $2,500 to $150,000 attending matches; FIFA hospitality packages alone ran $100,000.
QTS abandoned Virginia's planned 2,100-acre data center after courts voided rezoning over a newspaper-notice technicality.
MrBeast earned $300 million to top Forbes' creators; the top 50 combined for $1.02 billion, up 20% YoY.
Americans are ditching overseas trips for road trips; Lake Tahoe bookings up 10%, and visitors are cooking meals to save.
US semiconductor disilane demand is predicted to grow 7–9% through 2035, but it’s 70–75% import-reliant; signals CHIPS Act supply gap.
📜 Quote of the Day
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