Hello.
Four of the largest companies on Earth report earnings after the bell today: Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon. Between them, they've committed to spending roughly 600 billion dollars on AI infrastructure this year. And today we find out whether those bets are starting to pay off.
Meanwhile, the Fed announces its rate decision at 2 PM. Rates are staying put at 3.5% to 3.75% (the market is pricing in a 100% chance of no change). But the press conference 30 minutes later is the one to watch. It's Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair. And the guy replacing him just cleared the Senate Banking Committee this morning.
Let’s take a look.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
The $600 Billion Question
Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are all reporting Q1 earnings after the close today. The real story isn't whether they beat estimates (they usually do). The real story is whether $600 billion in combined AI spending is showing up in the numbers.
Here's what we're watching.
Google: Revenue expected around 107 billion dollars, EPS $2.63. The number that matters is Google Cloud, expected to grow roughly 50% year over year. EPS is actually expected to dip about 5% from last year, but that's not a margin problem. It's because the massive capex Alphabet committed in 2025 is now flowing through as depreciation. The 2026 capex guidance is 175 to 185 billion dollars.
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Magnificent 7 Earnings Rush, Continued
Meta: Consensus expects about 55.5 billion dollars in revenue (roughly 31% year-over-year growth, which would be the fastest since Q2 2021). Capex guidance of $115 to $135 billion is nearly double 2025's spend. The market wants to know if the ad revenue engine is strong enough to fund that without compressing margins.
Microsoft: Revenue expected around 81.4 billion dollars, EPS $4.06. Azure growth is the headline: analysts expect 37% to 38%. Anything above 39% is a meaningful beat. Capex last quarter alone was 29.88 billion dollars, up 89% year over year.
Amazon: Revenue expected around 177 billion dollars, EPS $1.63. AWS grew 24% in Q4, and investors want that pace to hold or accelerate. The big number is whether Amazon sticks with its 200 billion dollar capex plan for 2026. That's the largest single-company commitment of the bunch.
Chris Brigati at SWBC put it well this week: this earnings slate and the Fed decision will be "pivotal in setting the market's near-term tone." The question is whether these companies are increasing forward capex again, and whether the AI revenue lines are growing fast enough to justify it. If the answer is yes, the AI trade keeps running. If any of them blink, the "is AI overhyped?" narrative comes back fast.
📊 AltIndex Reddit Stocks: The Tickers Retail Is Talking About
When a ticker's mentions spike alongside strong alternative data signals, it's worth paying attention to.
We check our partner AltIndex's Reddit Stocks tracker frequently. It scans the most active investing subreddits and ranks tickers by mention volume and sentiment over the past 24 hours.
Today one ticker saw mentions jump 422.7% in the past 24 hours. We won't spoil which one (go look), but when social volume spikes that hard, it might means something is happening that the broader market hasn't fully processed yet.
Powell's Last Act (and the Guy Who's Replacing Him)
The Fed announces its rate decision at 2 PM today. Rates are probably staying at 3.5% to 3.75% for the third meeting in a row (100% probability of no change). That part isn't the story.
The story is what happens at 2:30. Jerome Powell gives his last press conference as Fed Chair today. His term expires next month, and Kevin Warsh (Trump's pick to replace him) just cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote this morning.
Quick background: the DOJ opened a criminal probe into Powell over the Fed's headquarters renovation earlier this year (cost overruns ballooned from 1.9 billion to roughly 2.5 billion dollars). That probe was dropped last week by US Attorney Jeanine Pirro.
Senator Thom Tillis had been blocking Warsh's committee vote until the probe was dropped. Once it was, the roadblock cleared and Warsh moved through today.
Markets will be watching closely for any sign of whether Powell will stay on as a Fed governor (his governor term runs until 2028). He's also navigating an ugly inflation picture: CPI accelerated to 3.3% year over year in March, the highest since May 2024, driven by oil and energy costs. The Fed is stuck between an economy that's still growing and inflation that won't cooperate.
📰 Market Headlines
US stocks slipped from record highs as OpenAI doubts weighed on tech and the United Arab Emirates said it would leave the OPEC group of oil producers.
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq tumbled 0.9%, and the Dow dropped just below flat after both major indexes closed at fresh record highs Monday.
Oracle stock cratered 4% while CoreWeave plunged 5% as investors digested the OpenAI news ahead of Big Tech earnings. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all report Wednesday after the bell, with Apple following Thursday.
Spotify stock plunged 12% after soft guidance overshadowed a first-quarter earnings beat. The company expects to add 17 million net users this quarter to reach 778 million MAUs and grow premium subscribers by 6 million to 299 million, but net premium subscribers had been expected to grow to just over 300.4 million. Operating income was guided to 630 million euros while the Street was expecting closer to 680 million euros.
The UAE will exit OPEC on May 1, dealing a major blow to the oil cartel at a moment when global energy markets are already on edge. The shock announcement came after the UAE was the target of missile and drone attacks for weeks by fellow OPEC member Iran, and as Tehran's dominance over the Strait of Hormuz has severely constrained the Emirates' ability to export oil.
Elon Musk testified Tuesday at the high-stakes trial over OpenAI's future, casting his lawsuit as a defense of charitable giving. "If we make it okay to loot a charity, the entire foundation of charitable giving in America will be destroyed," Musk told the court. OpenAI's lawyers fired back, arguing it was Musk who saw dollar signs and pushed to turn the nonprofit into a for-profit business he could lead.
OpenAI fell short of its targets for sales and users ahead of its highly anticipated IPO, the Wall Street Journal reported. The ChatGPT developer missed multiple monthly revenue targets earlier this year after losing ground to Anthropic in coding and enterprise markets, and fell short of an internal goal to reach 1 billion weekly active users by year-end.
🎙 Make Your Voice Heard
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📷 Alternative Investment of the Day: Vintage Leica Cameras
Vintage Leica cameras are surging as younger collectors embrace analog photography to escape digital saturation and AI-generated imagery. Black-painted Leica MP models now sell for $700,000 to $1 million at auction, while chrome versions fetch around $100,000. Record prices include a Leica 0 Series at €14.4 million and a custom Leica M-A owned by Pope Francis that reached €6.5 million last November.
Demand has expanded beyond technical enthusiasts to buyers interested in historical and collectible value. The market now spans museum-quality rarities and practical pre-owned cameras for daily use, with entry-level pricing making the category increasingly accessible. The strongest growth is in the US, China, and Japan, where dense networks of vintage camera shops support engaged collector communities.
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
US oil and gas employment dropped to 116,100 workers in March, continuing a decade-long contraction even as production stays strong.
Americans are increasingly choosing to cut off contact with friends and family rather than work through conflict, 60% of Gen Z have gone "no contact" with a loved one in the past year.
Forty-seven percent of Americans feel lonely on a typical day, and 68% struggle to build in-person community as technology-enabled avoidance reshapes how people connect.
📜 Quote of the Day
Investing on paper is like reading a romance novel vs. doing something else. You’ll soon find out whether you like it. The earlier you start, the better.”
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Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc
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