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- ❌ Rate cuts ain't coming
❌ Rate cuts ain't coming
⁉️ And what does that mean for the national debt?
The space economy is blowing up, vodka is back on top, and Christie’s is getting desperate. All this and more in this week’s Alts Cafe.
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📰 Market Headlines
Equities were mixed yesterday as Treasury yields climbed with inflation fear and the reality of high interest rates settling in.
Fed Chair Powell said there has been a "lack of further progress" on inflation this year.
The 2-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% after Powell's comments before settling just under that level.
The Dow snapped a six-day losing streak, but the S&P and Nasdaq ticked down a bit.
The IMF upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.2% for 2024, saying the economy has proven "surprisingly resilient" despite risks.
Trump Media has tanked a whopping 29% in the past 2 days. [Ed: Please tell me you read this and did something]
🕶️ Market Vibes
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures
😱 Fear and Greed Index
This is not going well.
The Federal debt has been spiraling out of control since 2000. Debt servicing costs are set to outpace defense spending in the US for the first time, nearing $900 million in 2024.
🧠 What do you think?
💬 Have your say
Other than opportunity costs of interest payments (if America is paying down debt, it’s not building roads), how big a deal is the ballooning national debt?
Is the debt a problem | what should be done |
🎤 What you said last time
Incredible parity between these two funhouse mirror reflections of classic films.
📊 Stocks
Get $20 free shares at public.com using code ALTSCO.
Winners and losers
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions
United Airlines reported a narrower-than-expected Q1 loss, despite a $200 million hit from the Boeing 737 Max 9 grounding; shares soared more than 8.5% after-hours.
Bank of America's profits shrank as it set aside more money to cover souring loans. Shares fell over 3%.
Morgan Stanley beat estimates with a 4% revenue increase and a 19% EPS jump. Shares climbed over 2%.
JB Hunt missed Q1 EPS estimates and revenue of $2.94 billion fell short of the $3.12 billion consensus; the stock is down 7.92% in the last 3 months.
PNC Financial saw Q1 profit plunge 21%, dropping the stock price by over 2%.
Adidas raised its 2024 operating profit outlook after a better-than-expected Q1. Shares rallied 3.5%.
UnitedHealth expected the Change Healthcare hack to cost up to $1.6 billion this year but maintained its 2024 earnings forecast. Shares surged 5.3%.
Johnson & Johnson topped Q1 profit estimates as medical device sales jumped 4%, however, shares closed more than 2% lower.
Market movers
Live Nation tanked 7% after news the Department Of Justice will file an antitrust lawsuit next month. [Ed: this is long overdue]
Another Boeing whistleblower.
Insiders reported Red Lobster is toying with bankruptcy to restructure its debt. [Ed: Victims of their own AYCE success]
Startup Rivos raised over $250 million to develop cheaper AI chips than Nvidia, targeting smaller installations.
Tesla's global job cuts hit its two biggest markets:
In the US, several service centers saw heavy layoffs, primarily sales staff and technicians.
In China, over 10% of Tesla's sales team is being let go.
Shares tumbled almost 10% in two days.
More layoffs across big banks:
Citigroup saw the biggest drop, shedding 2,000 employees in Q1 as part of a broader plan to cut 20,000 jobs.
Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial together cut over 2,000 jobs.
USAA eliminated 220 roles, after cutting nearly 1,000 jobs last year.
Ideas, trends, and analysis
The cost of paying America's national debt crossed the $1 trillion mark in 2023.
Will GE do better as three companies than as one?
According to a House Select Committee report, China is knowingly funding the deadly US fentanyl crisis to profit from the opioid epidemic.
Japan’s exports rose 7.3% year-over-year in March.
The U.S. economy might “break” in 2025 if interest rates stay high.
🌍 Global Perspectives
🇬🇷 The Olympic flame for the 2024 Paris Olympics was lit in Olympia, Greece, the birthplace of the ancient Olympics.
🇮🇩 A volcano in Indonesia erupted, forcing over 800 people to evacuate.
🇩🇰 A massive fire engulfed Copenhagen's historic stock exchange building, causing the iconic dragon spire to collapse.
🇧🇪 Belgian police shut down a far-right conference in Brussels ahead of Europe's June elections.
🇦🇷 🇩🇰 Argentina sealed a $300 million deal for 24 F-16 jets from Denmark to strengthen its air force capabilities.
🇸🇳 Senegal's new government is targeting economic sovereignty and seeking to renegotiate contracts.
📊 Crypto
Bitcoin has corrected down nearly 15% in a month, but there are reasons to stay bullish.
Grayscale's GBTC Bitcoin holdings have halved to 311,621 BTC in the 3 months since spot ETFs launched.
6 altcoins in the top 50 have outperformed Bitcoin's 54% year-to-date gains. Dogecoin leads, up 77%.
Bybit reported that exchanges could run out of Bitcoin within 9 months after the halving if current withdrawal rates persist.
🧠 Errata
Farmers are using soothing Axe Body spray to keep angry sheep from fighting.
The U.K might ban smoking for anyone born after 2009.
A man who kidnapped an FBI employee in South Dakota was sentenced to 37 years in prison.
The world's first AI beauty pageant, Miss AI, is being slammed as a "curse" and a sign we're "getting dumber."
📺 What to Watch Today
That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.
Cheers,
Wyatt
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