🙅 Rates ain't coming down (ever)

🔨 As more consumer-facing companies get smash hammered

For all the history nerds here, I did a deep dive into the end of the bronze age and what that tells us about the world today. Check it out.

🌾 From the farm to your bank account

To feed the world’s growing population, farmers will need to produce as much food over the next 40 years as they produced in the last ten thousand.

We'll need big investments in farms and agribusinesses. That's why ​Harvest Returns​ offers exclusive private opportunities for investing in farming and ranching operations.

It's hard to imagine a world where farmland investing isn't valuable. That's where Harvest Returns comes in.

Invest in:

🚜 Ranches and Farms

  • Invest in helping American farmers start + grow operations.

  • You can invest in projects such as hydroponic farms, indoor aquaculture facilities, or vineyards for $5,000

🌱 AgTech Companies

Lately we've been exploring Harvest's newest offering: their ​Private Credit Fund​.

🆕 Private Credit Fund

  • Diversified assets across varied agriculture sectors+geos

  • 1-3 year maturity debt notes (to leverage high interest rates)

  • Quarterly cash distributions.

  • First distribution is projected for JuneHigh targets: 14.5% IRR and a 1.5x exit multiple

📰 Market Headlines

  • The Fed held rates at a 23-year high, signaling a lack of progress on inflation.

    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that "inflation is still too high" and that falling to the 2% target is "not assured."

    • But rates stayed the same, and the Fed indicated its next move should be a cut, not a hike.

    • Stocks initially slipped but later rallied after Powell's comments, with the Dow surging over 500 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also posted solid gains.

  • The FTC is expected to approve Exxon Mobil's $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, which would make Exxon the leading producer in the Permian Basin.

  • Consumer pullback has hit major chains like Starbucks, KFC, and McDonald’s, with Starbucks reporting a 17% drop in share price. I dove into it here.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ​Kalshi​, the prediction market.

The markets have given up on a rate cut by June.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🎤 What you said last time

📈 Trends you need to know

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The price of eggs is spiking again. I hope you kept all the chickens you bought last January.

🧠 What do you think?

💬 Have your say

The Chinese government sent its newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, for sea trials for the first time. It’s widely considered to be a generation or so behind the American Gerald R. Ford-class carriers, but Beijing is pumping out new ships at a rate of knots.

How worried are you about a kinetic conflict between the USA and China?

How worried are you about a war with China?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

📊 Stocks

Get $20 free shares at ​public.com​ using code ALTSCO.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Carvana reported record sales, net income, and adjusted earnings, spiking stock prices over 30%.

  • Mastercard fell 2.02% following missed revenue forecasts.

  • Etsy missed estimates; shares dove 13%.

  • DoorDash projected Q2 profit below estimates as higher costs offset gains; down 14%.

  • Wingstop reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings as revenue jumped 34%, yet shares edged down 0.2%.

  • Qualcomm rose 4% after forecasted Q3 profit struck above expectations.

  • eBay forecasted Q2 revenue below expectations as demand cools for collector's items, dropping the stock price by 5%.

  • CVS Health slashed its full-year profit outlook, citing higher medical costs dogging the insurance industry; shares plunged 16%.

Market movers

  • UnitedHealth CEO reported a cyberattack on Change Healthcare compromised the data of one-third of Americans and involved a $22 million ransom payment.

  • Tesla will lose key executives, including the head of its China operations and its VP of global security as Musk conducts another overhaul. [Ed: Is this related to the deal he struck with Beijing over the weekend?]

  • Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019 because it was "very worried" Google was years ahead in AI, internal emails revealed.

  • JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay a $100 million penalty for reporting incomplete trading data to surveillance platforms.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • The US national debt, at $34 trillion, is now nearly as big as the entire economy.

  • Americans earned an extra $235 billion in interest in 2023 thanks to the Fed's rate hikes.

  • The US and China are racing to shape the development and governance of AI in Africa.

  • New FBI data revealed that the US crime rate dropped significantly in 2023, with murder down 13%, violent crime down 6%, and property crime down 4%.

  • Birmingham was once praised as "the best-governed city in the world." Now it’s going bust along with many other British cities.

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Russia made its largest territorial gains in Ukraine since July 2022 as Kyiv awaits crucial US weaponry.

  • 🇮🇩 Indonesia's Ruang volcano erupted again, prompting authorities to raise the alert status to the highest level.

  • 🇨🇳 China's newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, began its first sea trials.

  • 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇦🇺 The US State Department unveiled a plan to reduce arms licensing requirements for the UK and Australia.

  • 🇹🇷 🇿🇦 🇮🇱 Turkey announced it would join South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

📊 Crypto

  • Bitcoin tumbled below $57,000, down 22% from its all-time high, as ETF outflows accelerate. It rebounded early today.

  • The UK Financial Conduct Authority sharpened its focus on crypto regulation, dedicating 30% of its financial crime team to the sector.

  • Haun Ventures led a $5 million seed round in Agora, a cross-chain governance platform used by Optimism, Nouns, ENS, and Uniswap.

🧠 Errata

  • Catholic advocacy group Catholic Answers defrocked their AI priest "Father Justin" after it endorsed baptizing babies in Gatorade.

  • The sun unleashed a near X-class solar flare, triggering radio blackouts across the Pacific.

  • Scientists forecast a "triple whammy extinction" event in 250 million years, likely eradicating humanity. So, why bother, right?

  • Study finds a surge of anger can significantly reduce blood vessels' ability to dilate, potentially causing a heart attack. [Ed: no kidding]

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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