The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Friday. But over the weekend, Trump called Iran's peace proposal "totally unacceptable" and oil surged past $105 a barrel. Needless to say, the breather did not last, and stock futures are down this morning pre-market.

Beware: this is a loaded week. Here's what you need to know:

🛢️ Trump rejected Iran's peace deal. Oil is surging.
📈 Stocks closed at record highs after a blowout jobs report
📊 Inflation data drops Tuesday (and the forecast isn't good)
🤝 Trump heads to Beijing with Jensen Huang and Tim Cook
🏛️ Jay Powell's last week as Fed Chair
🧠 Cerebras IPO: 20x oversubscribed, biggest AI listing of 2026

Let's get into it.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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This is the story that sets the tone for the week. Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal on Saturday, calling it "totally unacceptable" on Truth Social. Iran had demanded sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for war damages, a lifting of oil sanctions, and refused to fully dismantle its nuclear program.

Oil jumped immediately. Brent crude surged past $105 a barrel earlier this morning. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, and there's no clear path to a deal right now.

For your portfolio: energy stays elevated, airlines keep bleeding, and anything tied to shipping costs gets more expensive. We're watching whether the Trump-Xi summit later this week produces any pressure on Iran through Beijing.

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,398.93 on Friday, capping a six-week winning streak (the longest since 2024). The catalyst was April's jobs report, which came in way above expectations: 115,000 jobs added versus the 55,000 forecast. Unemployment held at 4.3%. Healthcare led the way (+37,000), followed by transportation and warehousing (+30,000).

The interesting detail: average hourly earnings came in cooler than expected (+3.6% year over year vs. 3.8% estimated). More jobs, less wage pressure. That's the soft landing combination the market has been hoping for.

Intel (INTC) and Apple reached a preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture processors based on Apple's designs. Intel is now up 217% year to date. The deal validates Intel's entire foundry pivot (they're reportedly also working with Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla). Apple ships over 200 million iPhones a year. That's a massive customer (though Intel would just be making “some” chips for Apple, according to CNBC).

Nintendo (NTDOY) raised the Switch 2's US price from $449.99 to $499.99, blaming surging memory chip costs from the AI infrastructure boom. They also cut their sales forecast from 19.86 million units to 16.5 million. However, Nintendo is notorious for lowballing its revenue estimates, and some analysts think that consumers will adjust to the new console price just fine.

For the first time since the end of January, BTC broke $80,000 (and it’s holding the line). Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over $1 billion last week, the first billion-dollar week since January. BlackRock's IBIT captured $721.5 million of that. Institutional accumulation continues quietly while retail sentiment remains mixed.

Let us know if you want to see more Bitcoin news/takes/analysis.

This week has serious potential to move markets. And we’re not just saying that… here's the day-by-day breakdown:

Consensus forecast: headline CPI +3.7% year over year, with a +0.6% month-over-month increase. Core CPI (stripping out food and energy) is expected at +2.7% year over year. The headline number is kind of expected to run hot because of oil prices… the question is whether core inflation is cooperating.

April PPI (producer prices) drops in the morning. If both CPI and PPI run hot, bond yields spike and rate-sensitive stocks sell off. This is the one-two punch the market doesn't want.

Alibaba (BABA) reports full fiscal year results before the open. The bellwether for Chinese e-commerce and cloud. Cisco (CSCO) reports after the close with AI orders on a $5 billion+ full-year pace.

Cerebras Systems has priced its IPO at $150 to $160 per share, raising up to $4.8 billion. Orders are 20x oversubscribed. This is the biggest AI IPO of 2026 (so far) and the biggest US IPO of the year period (again, so far. Looking at you, Anthropic and OpenAI). The stock begins trading Thursday. How the market receives Cerebras will tell you a lot about whether AI appetite has peaked or is still accelerating.

Fervo Energy also prices its IPO (geothermal, $1.33 billion raise). Largest climate-tech IPO of 2026.

April retail sales will show whether $4.45 gas is finally crushing consumer spending. This is the data point that tells you how much the Iran war is hitting Main Street.

Trump arrives in Beijing for a two-day summit with Xi Jinping. He's expected to bring Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, and several other CEOs from Boeing, Mastercard, Citigroup, and more. On the table: AI chip export restrictions, a potential Boeing order for 500 737 MAX jets (China's first major Boeing order since 2017), rare earth commitments, and whether Xi will pressure Iran toward a ceasefire. This summit could reshape tariff policy overnight.

Jay Powell's term as Fed Chair expires May 15. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote is today. Powell has said he'll remain on the Fed’s board but keep a low profile. The market has largely priced this transition in, but a new Fed Chair always introduces uncertainty about forward guidance and communication style.

Trump and Xi's joint statements and deal announcements are expected Friday. Watch for Boeing order confirmations, tariff language, and any Iran ceasefire progress.

Record highs, a war escalation, inflation data, a generational IPO, a presidential summit in Beijing, and a Fed transition. All in one week.

We think the CPI number Tuesday morning is the single most important data point. If headline inflation comes in at or below 3.7% and core stays tame, the rally has room to run. If it surprises to the upside, expect a pullback (and a buying opportunity for investors who've been waiting for one). At least, that’s what we’re thinking.

The Trump-Xi summit is the wild card. Any breakthrough on tariffs, Boeing orders, or Iran pressure through Beijing would be a meaningful catalyst. But summits also have a way of producing nothing. We'll be watching.

Either way, this is a week to pay attention!

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc