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Good morning.
The Supreme Court could rule today on the legality of President Trump's tariffs, a decision that could force billions in refunds, reshape trade policy, and blow a hole in federal budget plans. But that's just one headline in a week that feels like a month.
This guy invests based on Y Combinator startup trends. Here’s the next one
President Trump has canceled a second wave of attacks on Venezuela
The pace is relentless. But here's what we're watching: the sector rotation is real, and the money is moving fast.
Let's take a deeper look.
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📰 Market Headlines
US stocks ended mixed on Thursday after defense spending announcements triggered a sharp sector rotation.
The Dow rose 0.57%, notching its best five-day start to the year since 2006. The S&P 500 stayed flat while the Nasdaq tumbled 0.47% as Nvidia, Apple, and Meta sold off.
Did you know that Rolls Royce (RYCEY) is a defense company? If you do, you also likely know that RYCEY shares have hit record highs every day of 202f6 in the wake of Venezuela. But the kicker is that Rolls Royce’s defense growth hasn’t even shown up the most in their actual defense business, but in their power systems business. Read the breakdown from Rolls Royce CFO Helen McCabe.
What if you could predict the next trend in successful startups by looking at publicly available data? That’s what X trader Luc does with Y Combinator startup tags. He looks at what the most popular industries are for up-and-coming companies. Here’s his full process →
President Trump has canceled a second round of US attacks on Venezuela after stating that both countries “are working well together” regarding oil and gas infrastructure reconstruction, according to CNBC.
Trump also stated today that “Big Oil” is going to invest $100 billion minimum in Venezuela moving forward.
The US trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since 2009, dropping 39% to $29.4 billion in October as imports tumbled 4.5%. Exports hit a record $302 billion. The gap came in well below the $58.9 billion forecast; tariffs and softening domestic demand are doing the heavy lifting.
The Supreme Court could rule on President Trump's tariffs on Friday. A decision against the administration would force refunds to importers and complicate fiscal plans, though Treasury Secretary Bessent says the White House has workarounds ready. Prediction markets peg the odds of a full President Trump win at just 28%.
President Trump ordered $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, claiming the move would drive mortgage rates and monthly payments down. Whether it works remains to be seen, but housing affordability has been a persistent headache.
December layoffs hit a 17-month low, with planned job cuts totaling just 35,553, down 50% from November. Still, full-year cuts topped 1.2 million, the highest since 2020. Friday's jobs report looms large.
President Trump wants $50 oil. The industry can't survive on that. Permian Basin breakeven prices hover around $62-64 per barrel, and WTI is already trading near $57. ExxonMobil warned the slump will shave $800 million to $1.2 billion off Q4 results. Good for your gas bill, bad for US energy jobs.
😱 Fear & Greed Index
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🤖 AI/Future/Tech News
Google is rolling out Gemini AI features to Gmail's 3 billion users with AI summaries and suggested replies turned on by default.
Disney+ will launch short-form vertical videos in the US this year, targeting younger audiences hooked on TikTok and Reels.
🪙 Crypto
Bitcoin slid to $90,000 as the crypto market cooled off to start the week.
JPMorgan says the crypto sell-off may be nearing a bottom, with Bitcoin ETFs logging $439 million in net inflows so far in January and Ether ETFs pulling in $359 million.
❓Market Trivia Corner
🎤️ What you said last time
“Politicians play the games of Risk and Catan on a global scale while us peasants deal with the results. Nothing ever changes and never will. Have a nice day LOL”
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
The US averaged a billion‑dollar weather disaster every 10 days in 2025, racking up $115 billion in damage, and insurance markets are starting to crack.
Air taxis quietly moved from sci‑fi to scheduling as Archer and Joby lined up real launches, and cities are bracing for lift‑off.
Robotaxis logged over 20 million fully autonomous rides last year, and Waymo plans to double its city footprint.
US workers missed an average of 6.1 days due to health issues, and employers quietly shifted benefits spending to control medical costs.
A 26‑year‑old lived in Manhattan on $53,000 by locking in rent stabilization and cutting social spending, and the math is tighter than it looks.
Brazilian egg exports soared 121% to a record 40,894 tons in 2025, driven by 827% growth in US demand, until August tariffs forced exporters to pivot to Japan and Chile.
📜 Quote of the Day
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Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc
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