🚀 The S&P breaks through 5,000

📈 Plus, Bitcoin is back above $46k

Today, Benedict will show you how to bet on Boeing shares crashing and burning after the next earnings call.

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📰 Market Headlines

*past 24-hour performance

  • The S&P 500 finally busted past the 5,000 mark yesterday, before settling at 4,997.91 at the close. Gains were driven mainly by Disney's 11% post-earnings bump and a rally in small-cap stocks.

    • One record high after another makes you wonder if the index is overvalued now.

    • Its price-to-earnings ratio just reached 20.4, far above the historic average of 15.7

  • Bitcoin continues to rip.

  • Jobless claims dropped this week & the dollar index notched up 0.14% too.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

21% of traders STILL think the Fed will cut rates in March. The number on Kalshi is much closer to reality.

The CME also still shows six full rate cuts in 2024 as the most likely outcome. It’s four on Kalshi. I think 2 - 3 is right.

Easy money there if you want it [disclosure: I have tiny positions on No rate cuts in March and between one and three rate cuts in 2024.]

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

🎰 Which would you rather have?

You have to hold on for ten years

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

🎤 What you said last time

Gold got a big 👎️ thumbs down, except from one enthusiastic hoarder 🫡 

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Nearshoring is the business strategy of outsourcing work to companies in nearby countries to reduce costs and improve communication and coordination due to closer proximity, similar time zones, and cultural affinities.

While interest is up significantly from last year, search volume is on the decline.

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Arm shares rocketed 48% after a robust earnings report and a bullish forecast, adding $38 billion to its market cap.

  • SoftBank got $34 billion of that boost since it owns 90% of ARM. Shares soared over 15%.

  • Expedia unveiled a CEO change and a 37% surge in Q4 earnings; shares still tumbled 15.3% after hours.

  • Alibaba faced a downgrade to Neutral by Macquarie due to investment increases; shares dipped 5% after missing revenue estimates.

  • Cloudflare shares leaped 21% post-market as it outperformed Q4 earnings expectations and secured its new largest customer deal ever.

  • Pinterest fell nearly 10% after a disappointing forecast and missing Q4 revenue expectations.

Market movers

  • U.S. credit card balances rose to a record $6,360, pushing total debt to $1.13 trillion.

  • UPS enacted its largest layoffs in 116 years, partly due to AI tech.

  • Shopify hiked its Plus plan fees to $2,500, citing inflation and AI investments.

  • Google transformed Bard AI into Gemini, launching new apps and a premium model. Early testers say it’s still playing second fiddle to OpenAI’s GPT-4.

  • Bell Media cut several TV newscasts and sold 45 stations after BCE Inc. laid off 4,800.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

🇮🇸 A volcanic eruption in Iceland disrupted the hot water supply for over 20,000 people as lava burst key water pipes.

🇨🇳 China's stock markets lost nearly $7trn since 2021 amid a property crisis and deflation, despite Xi Jinping's efforts to stabilize the economy.

🇷🇺🇵🇱🇱🇻 Russian President Vladimir Putin stated Russia has no offensive plans against Poland or Latvia, acting only if attacked.

🇹🇼🇨🇳 Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen thanked allies for support after the PLA published a music video that included simulated missile strikes against the island.

📊 Income

  • Meta's new dividend is more important than you think.

  • Ready Capital Corporation offers a 13.5% dividend yield with a 39% upside, standing strong amidst sector challenges.

  • Companies like Broadcom and Cisco Systems are attractive for their dividends and AI involvement, merging tech growth with income.

  • BP aims to woo investors with a 10% dividend hike and big share buybacks.

📊 Crypto

  • Bitcoin ETFs with low fees are putting pressure on Coinbase. Its transaction volume has tanked.

  • Bill Gates's opinion on Bitcoin: "If you have less money than Elon, you should probably watch out"

  • Public bitcoin miners raised $1.6 billion in 2023 to brace for the halving event's impact on revenues.

🧠 Errata

  • Thieves swiped nearly 100 Californian beehives in a sweet heist.

  • A driver in China narrowly dodged a Siberian tiger.

  • We just had our hottest year ever, smashing past the 1.5°C mark.

  • The FCC just officially axed AI-generated robocalls, no more fake voices in election season.

  • Five Marines died in a helicopter crash near San Diego.

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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