Two things happened yesterday that rarely share a day: the Supreme Court handed the Federal Reserve its biggest win in decades, and the market barely looked up.

In a 5-4 decision, the Court blocked President Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, with Chief Justice Roberts writing that even the "appearance of independence" is part of the central bank's design. It is the most forceful defense of Fed autonomy in a generation.

Stocks rallied anyway, just not for that reason. The Nasdaq jumped 2% and the S&P 500 added 1.1%, mostly on relief that the US and Iran agreed to pause their weekend strikes and meet in Qatar today. Oil climbed back above $70.

The number worth staring at, though, is somewhere else. Big Tech plans to spend $725 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone, up 77% from last year's record. Add up the industry's full buildout and the projected tab reaches $7.6 trillion by 2031, roughly four years of Germany's entire economy.

The catch: the Magnificent Seven have fallen 13% from their May highs, free cash flow is evaporating, and the hyperscalers keep writing bigger checks anyway, terrified that blinking first means losing the race. Several are laying off thousands of workers and spending with "reckless abandon" in the same breath.

Thursday brings the jobs report a day early, ahead of the Fourth of July weekend.

Today:

📰 Market Headlines: Court blocks President Trump's Fed firing, tech's $5.3 trillion AI bet, Nike hits 11-year low
🤖 AI/Tech: Google's free Gemini image tools, Supreme Court rules on geofence warrants
💼 Market Movers: Rocket Lab's $8B Iridium deal, Comcast splits in two

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Big Tech is planning to spend $725 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone, up a staggering 77% from last year's record $410 billion, and Wall Street analysts are split on whether anyone will blink first. Wedbush's Dan Ives calls it an "arms race" where cutting back means falling behind competitors on compute power and partnerships. Goldman Sachs now projects the four largest hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet) will burn through $5.3 trillion in combined capex from fiscal 2025 through 2030, up from a $4.5 trillion estimate just months ago.

The baseline aggregate capital expenditures estimate stands at $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031, spread across compute, data centers, and power. That's roughly equivalent to Germany's entire GDP for nearly four years. The spending spree has crushed stock performance: Magnificent Seven stocks are down more than 13% since their mid-May peak, with each name down double digits from its 52-week high. Investors are watching free cash flow evaporate as capex devours operating cash, leaving little for buybacks or dividends.

Not everyone believes the spending will continue unabated. Great Hill Capital's Thomas Hayes predicts "one or more of these hyperscalers" will announce capex reductions during Q2 earnings, surprising the market. The tension is clear: tech CEOs are simultaneously firing people en masse for AI-driven productivity gains while spending with what some call "reckless abandon" on infrastructure. The monetization phase Ives references, expected over the next 6-12 months, will determine whether shareholders funded a revolution or just an expensive buildout that competitors could have shared.

US stocks climbed on Monday after the Supreme Court rejected President Trump's firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook and the US and Iran reportedly agreed to stop tit-for-tat attacks that broke out over the weekend.

The Supreme Court blocked President Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook in a 5-4 decision that delivered the most definitive defense yet of Fed independence. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that "not only the fact of independence but also the appearance of independence is key to the Federal Reserve's design." The ruling said that while the president can remove Fed governors "for cause," that doesn't mean he can do it for any reason or no reason. Cook, who President Trump fired last August over alleged mortgage fraud, called the move an attempt to remove her "on a manufactured pretext" because she refused to bow to political pressure on interest rates.

Oil prices climbed back above $70 as tensions in the Middle East eased slightly. Brent crude rose 1.5% to $73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to trade above $70. President Trump announced the US and Iran will meet in Doha, Qatar on Tuesday for renewed peace talks, though he warned of further military action if negotiations fail.

Alphabet stock jumped almost 5% after the company joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Verizon in the blue-chip index. The move signals a shift in how Wall Street views tech giants and comes as the Nasdaq tries to recover from last week's 4.6% drop.

Super Micro Computer's offices in Taiwan were raided by government authorities on Monday, widening an investigation into alleged smuggling of Nvidia chips into China using the company's servers. Taiwan's Keelung District Prosecutors Office said investigators raided the residences of six individuals and three affiliated companies, including Super Micro's Taiwan office, data center operator Chief Telecom, and distributor Albatron Technology. The move marks an expansion of Taiwan's first public crackdown on AI chip diversion after years of pressure from Washington to take a more active role in curtailing China's tech access.

Nike stock crashed to an 11-year low with no bottom in sight. Shares are down 36% in 2026 alone and have dropped 43% over the past 12 months, trading at levels not seen since the early 2010s. The company faces a perfect storm of pressure heading into Tuesday's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report: management has already signaled sales will decline 2-4% for the quarter, China sales fell 10% year-over-year last quarter, and rivals like Adidas and On Holding continue to chip away at market share. Wall Street isn't optimistic, with Stifel analyst Peter McGoldrick writing that he's not ready to call a bottom on Nike shares yet.

Apple stock faced selling pressure after the company announced price hikes on MacBooks and iPads to offset higher memory costs. The supply crunch for memory chips has hit other hardware makers too, including Microsoft's Xbox.

Thursday's jobs report will be the highlight of the week. The monthly nonfarm-payrolls update, crucial to the Federal Reserve's policy thinking, is due for release on Thursday instead of Friday as usual. Markets will close for trading on Friday to mark the Fourth of July holiday on Saturday.

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Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc