Good morning.
The Supreme Court just killed President Trump's tariff regime. Trump responded by imposing an even harsher one 24 hours later.
Markets rallied on Friday when the Court ruled 6-3 that the "Reciprocal Tariffs" were illegal. But by Saturday, the White House signed a new 15% global tariff under a different legal authority. The trade war is definitely not ending; the rules just appear to be changing.
In this issue, we’re breaking down the construction "certainty" trade, why Knife River is the #1 rated stock on AltIndex, and why owning your own materials is the only shield against a 15% global tax.
Let’s begin.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
In partnership with AltIndex
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🚨 How New Tariff Rulings Affect the Construction Industry
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) just deemed most of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal.
Trump responded by installing 15% global tariffs across the board.
The SCOTUS ruling just removed a "volatility discount" from the construction sector. Investors hate uncertainty, like a 25% reciprocal tariff appearing overnight (or worse!), so a lot of construction stocks had been trading lower. But now, while the new 15% global floor is a big tax, it's a known tax that won’t fluctuate, which is good for construction budgets and plans. And so, come construction stocks may stand to benefit.
However, the "Big Killer” tariffs (like the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum) remain untouched by the court. This creates a massive divide in the industry:
The winners: Vertically integrated | The losers: Import-dependent |
Self-sourced materials: Companies that own their own quarries and asphalt terminals (like KNF) avoid the 15% tax on raw inputs. | Steel-heavy builders: Firms reliant on imported structural steel still face the 50% Section 232 wall. |
Public infrastructure: Backlogs tied to the IIJA (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) have "buy America" tailwinds. | Residential modular: Builders importing finished components from overseas will see margins squeezed by the 15% global flat tax. |
📈 The Stock: Knife River (KNF)
Knife River is interesting to us because it’s more than a construction company: it’s also a materials powerhouse. AND it is currently the #1 rated stock in our partner AltIndex’s rankings.
Why KNF might be the "King of the Hill":
The earnings bump: KNF jumped 16% last week after crushing Q4 estimates (37% EPS beat) and announcing a record $1 billion backlog.
The alternative data: Our partners at AltIndex report a 113.7% increase in job postings over the last 3 months (a massive signal of internal growth).
KNF’s valuation: Analysts give it a 100% "Buy" rating, with AltIndex projecting an 18.2% climb to $107 from current levels.
A tariff moat? Because KNF sources its own aggregates (rock/gravel) and asphalt locally, they are effectively "de-risked" in those areas from the new 15% global tariff that will cripple smaller, non-integrated competitors.
📰 Market Headlines
Refund battle: Companies have already paid $175 billion in duties under the now-illegal IEEPA regime. Treasury hasn't said if they're giving it back.
Netflix vs. The White House: President Trump is threatening Netflix over board member Susan Rice. The timing is "interesting" as their $200B Warner Bros. acquisition sits on a federal desk.
Tech rotation: Money is fleeing the "Mag 7" for Energy (up 22% YTD) and Industrials (up 14%).
NVIDIA Alert: NVDA’s earnings this Wednesday will decide if the AI trade still has gas or if we're hitting a plateau.
🤖 AI/Future/Tech News
OpenAI scaling back? The AI golden child just cut its infrastructure target to $600 billion by 2030, down from the initial $1.4 trillion pledge.
Microsoft’s Global Push: Pledging $50 billion for AI in the Global South by 2030 to bridge the "digital divide."
OpenAI Goes Physical: Open AI is also reportedly building its first consumer hardware, including a smart speaker to rival Alexa.
🤫 Insider Trading
🚚 Market Movers
Tesla’s legal blow: A judge denied Tesla’s bid to toss a $243M verdict over a fatal 2019 Autopilot crash.
Lucid Layoffs: Cutting 12% of staff to lean out while ramping up for its $50,000 mid-size EV launch.
CoStar Cuts: Axing more jobs in Richmond just one day after unveiling new AI search tools for Homes.com.
Apple’s Stealth Launch: Apple is scrapping its March keynote for a three-day "blitz" of hands-on events in NY, London, and Shanghai.
🎙 Make Your Voice Heard
Will reciprocal tariffs being illegal help or harm markets?
🎤️ What you said last time
👛️ Alternative Investment of the Day: Luxury Handbags
Luxury handbags, especially ultra-scarce pieces from Hermès, continue to outperform traditional markets as alternative assets. The Hermès Mini Kelly II appreciated by ~259% from 2022 to 2025, and the iconic Birkin climbed by ~242%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 over the same period.
Experts cite scarcity, brand strength, and growth in the resale market as reasons these pieces are increasingly viewed as collectible tangible assets.
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
AI Financial Advice: Half of Americans now trust ChatGPT with their money decisions over a human advisor.
The Retirement Gap: The average American worker has just $955 saved for retirement; the 55-64 age group averages only $30k.
“Peanut butter” raises: Companies using this type of raise are fast tracking talent loss, experts warn.
Home Equity Heavy: Home equity now makes up one-third of the average worker's total financial assets.
📜 Quote of the Day
In investing, optimism pays better than pessimism.
📢 We want to hear from you.
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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc
The information provided in Stocks & Income is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Stocks & Income is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or licensed financial planner. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We may hold positions in or receive compensation from the companies or products mentioned. Disclosures will be made where applicable. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
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