Hello.
Big 24 hours.
Tesla beat on earnings, missed on revenue, and the stock dropped anyway. Trump ordered the Navy to shoot on sight in the Strait of Hormuz. Cannabis just got reclassified at the federal level for the first time in decades. And a rental car stock went from $100 to $850 and then crashed 38% in a single day.
We have four stories to cover, and all of them have something actionable for your portfolio.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Four Things That Matter for Your Money Right Now
There was too much important news to focus on 1 main story, so we’re doing 4. Hope you get value from it! Let us know if you do.
1. Tesla Beat Earnings. The Stock Dropped. Here's Why We're Not Worried.
Tesla's Q1 numbers were mixed:
Adjusted EPS: $0.41 vs. $0.37 expected (beat)
Revenue: $22.39 billion vs. $22.64 billion expected (miss)
Deliveries: 358,023 vs. 365,645 expected (miss)
The stock dropped about 3%. Year to date, TSLA is down roughly 15%.
What spooked the market: First off, people weren’t stoked that Tesla didn’t meat or beat its expected revenue. Then, the biggest thing: Tesla raised capex guidance to $25 billion, up $5 billion. Investors didn’t love that, now cash flow will likely turn negative. Also, Robotaxi rollouts will be slower than expected. And finally, Elon Musk said that older Hardware 3.0 vehicles will not be able to achieve full self-driving without hardware upgrades.
Why we're still long-term bullish on TSLA:
Unsupervised FSD has launched in Dallas and Houston. Paid robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially. FSD subscriptions hit 1.28 million (up 51% year over year). And Tesla is targeting unsupervised FSD in roughly a dozen states by year-end.
Wedbush's Dan Ives maintained his $600 price target, calling the CyberCab "the golden goose."
We think the $25 billion capex ramp is Elon betting aggressively on autonomy and AI, and historically, betting against Elon when he's spending aggressively has been the wrong trade. Down 15% with robotaxi actually launching is a more interesting entry point than it was three months ago, though things could still go down from here of course.
The Last Time This Market Moved, Early Investors Took Notice
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Some Investors Are Positioning for the Next Run - Quietly Lithium has already had one major run. Prices surged, capital poured in, and for a while, it felt like the entire market was chasing the same story at the same time. Then things cooled off. That's usually how these cycles go. But the underlying drivers didn't disappear. EV adoption kept growing. Energy storage kept expanding. Demand didn't reset - it kept moving. Now prices are starting to move again. Not dramatically. Not all at once. But enough to show up if you're watching it closely. This is typically the phase where things are still quiet. Before the headlines, before the broader rush. That's also the part most people miss. Because once it becomes obvious, the move is already well underway. One company is already positioned for that shift - not waiting on long development timelines, but producing from an overlooked source in the U.S. It's early. And in markets like this, early tends to be the part worth watching. |
2. "Sealed Up Tight": Trump's Hormuz Escalation and $100 Oil
The ceasefire is technically alive. The language from the White House says otherwise.
Trump posted that the US has "total control over the Strait of Hormuz" and that it's "sealed up tight until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!" He then ordered the Navy to shoot on sight any vessel caught laying mines, and directed minesweepers to clear the strait "at a tripled up level."
Brent crude crossed $103 on Wednesday, its fourth straight day of gains. WTI hit $95. And the downstream effects are already showing up: American Airlines just slashed its full-year earnings guidance from $1.70 to $2.70 per share down to negative $0.40 to $1.10, citing a $4 billion increase in fuel costs. Jet fuel has nearly doubled since the Iran conflict started.
Oil above $100 is a tax on the entire economy. If you don't have energy exposure right now, this is the environment that punishes you for it. Definitely not saying you should just jump into an oil position if you don’t have one, but if any buying opportunities present themselves, it could be worth considering; Kalshi traders don’t see Hormuz traffic returning to normal until July.
3. Cannabis Just Got Reclassified. This Is a Big Deal.
The Trump administration moved cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. That's the same classification as codeine and testosterone.
This doesn't legalize weed. But it's the most significant federal cannabis policy shift in decades. It opens the door to more legitimate medical research, eases banking restrictions for cannabis companies, and removes some of the DEA's heaviest regulatory burdens. For years, cannabis companies have been locked out of normal banking and couldn't deduct business expenses on federal taxes. Schedule III changes that.
If you've been watching the cannabis space, this is the catalyst the industry has been waiting for. Tilray (TLRY) is up 18% this week alone. We're not making a specific call here, but names like MSOS (the cannabis ETF), Tilray, and Canopy Growth (CGC) are the ones most directly affected. This is worth watching closely over the next few weeks as the market digests what the reclassification actually means for revenue and profitability.
4. Avis Went from $100 to $850 and Crashed. Here's the Lesson.
Avis Budget's stock ran from around $100 to roughly $850 and then plunged 38% in a single day. Classic short squeeze: Pentwater Capital and SRS Investment Management held massive stakes that squeezed the remaining free float shares while a tariff narrative gave it cover. Then the squeeze…
The company has negative EPS and is burning cash. The fundamentals never supported an $850 stock price. And the people who got hurt worst are the retail traders who chased the parabolic move on the way up and couldn't get out when it reversed. The stock is down 67% since yesterday morning, for Pete’s sake!
We're not going to lie. This is the kind of trade we tell readers to stay away from unless they caught it early using tools like Reddit Alerts from our partners at AltIndex, and even then, it’s only for people content with losing what they throw in. If the only reason a stock is going up is because other people are buying it (not because the business is improving), that's not investing. That's musical chairs. And somebody always gets left without a seat!
In partnership with Miso Robotics
Deloitte: Robot “Adoption is Accelerating Exponentially”
Robots are going from niche to mainstream, per Deloitte. They say it’s especially true in places where “physical AI solves real problems.” Take the $1 trillion fast-food market, where brands turn to robots to alleviate 144% labor turnover.
At the forefront of this push is Miso Robotics, which is celebrating a decade of robotic innovation by preparing for its most impactful year yet.
Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot has already been adopted by major brands like White Castle, frying 5M+ baskets of food to date. That earned strategic investment from industry powerhouse Ecolab and an unique collaboration with NVIDIA.
Now, after acquiring Zignyl, the powerful restaurant-operations tool, Miso adds powerhouse operators like Cinnabon, Jamba, and Jersey Mike’s under their umbrella.
Next up? Miso’s scaling across a $4B/year revenue opportunity. Join 39,000+ people as an early-stage Miso investor before they reach 100,000+ target locations.
This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com.
📰 Market Headlines
US stocks surged to fresh record highs on Wednesday as President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran and investors piled into tech ahead of Tesla's earnings.
The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.6% to close at a new all-time high, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% to also notch a record, and the Dow gained around 0.7%.
Oil topped $100 a barrel again as the Strait of Hormuz remained a flash point despite the extended truce.
SpaceX struck a $60 billion deal for the right to buy AI coding startup Cursor as Elon Musk continues transforming the rocket company into an AI behemoth ahead of its June IPO. The deal gives SpaceX the option to acquire Cursor or pay $10 billion for their joint work on coding and knowledge AI. SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion valuation, potentially the largest IPO in history.
American Airlines slashed its 2026 earnings outlook. Full-year EPS guidance went from $1.70 to $2.70 down to negative $0.40 to $1.10, driven by a $4 billion increase in fuel costs. This is the oil story hitting the real economy.
Prediction market Kalshi fined and suspended three politicians for trading on their own races during primary campaigns. The platform described the actions as "political insider trading" and handed out fines ranging from $539 to more than $6,200, with five-year suspensions. The candidates include Matt Klein (D-MN), Ezekiel Enriquez (R-TX), and Mark Moran (D-VA).
Shipping giants are pushing ahead with tariff refund claims despite President Trump warning he'll "remember" companies that seek the money. FedEx, UPS, and DHL have all confirmed plans to request refunds and pledged to pass the money along to customers. About $166 billion in tariff collections is eligible for refunds after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based duties in February. At least 17 lawsuits have already been filed against companies like FedEx and Costco to ensure customers get their share.
🚚 Market Movers
GM delayed electric truck refresh after $7.6 billion in EV charges, adding sixth gas pickup production day at Flint plant.
Battery recycler Redwood Materials cut 135 workers (10%) three months after raising $425 million at a $6 billion+ valuation.
Devin Nunes is out as Trump Media CEO after $712 million loss on $3.7 million revenue. Ex-Hulu exec Kevin McGurn takes over.
Prosperity Bancshares has been approved to acquire Stellar Bancorp, with a July close expected. Combined $38.5 billion bank operates 312 locations.
LinkedIn named Daniel Shapero CEO, replacing Ryan Roslansky, who moves to an expanded Microsoft role.
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🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
The DOJ is suing Cal-Maine, Versova, and Hickman's over alleged egg price coordination, though HPAI wiped out 15.2 million birds this year.
US nonfarm business productivity hit 1.9% y/y, below its 2.1% historical average, and RBC says AI's J-curve boost may take years to materialize.
The US military burned through 45% of precision strike missiles and half its THAAD interceptors during the Iran conflict. CSIS warns that replacement takes up to five years.
Danone posted sales growth as US dairy demand rebounded across North America.
Healthcare may delay AI productivity gains the longest, RBC notes, since output measures miss improved patient outcomes.
📜 Quote of the Day
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
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Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc
The information provided in Stocks & Income is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Stocks & Income is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or licensed financial planner. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We may hold positions in or receive compensation from the companies or products mentioned. Disclosures will be made where applicable. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
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