🚀 Tesla reports awful numbers, moons anyway

🗳️ While the Senate advanced a $94 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan

You’ll never guess which real estate market is the hottest metro in the US. That plus the bourbon market is getting drunk. All in this week’s Alts Cafe, if that’s your jam.

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📰 Market Headlines

  • The rally continued as the S&P 500 was up 1.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 293 points, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.8%.

  • Tesla cruised up nearly 16% even though its earnings were a mess.

    • It missed estimates and reported a 9% drop in Q1 revenue, the steepest decline since 2012

    • Musk announced a planned “affordable” model launching in 2025, which somehow reassured investors.

  • The FTC voted to ban all noncompete clauses nationwide.

  • The Senate advanced a $94 billion aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan that also happens to ban/divest TikTok.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ​Kalshi​, the prediction market.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

Poco a poco.

🎤 What you said last time

Literally, none of the comments you guys left were suitable for publishing.

📈 Trends you need to know

"The report of my death was an exaggeration."

🧠 What do you think?

💬 Have your say

Tesla’s earnings were a mess, but shares were up after Elon said a new affordable model would be in production by early 2025. He’s also said the new Tesla RoboTaxi will be available on 8/8.

Here’s a brief history of things Elon has promised that have sent share prices up.

1. Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD)

- The promise: In 2016, Elon Musk suggested that full autonomy would be achieved very soon, saying, “I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem. I think we are probably less than two years away.”

- The reality: As of late 2023, Tesla's vehicles are not fully autonomous. They operate under supervised use in the FSD Beta program, requiring active driver supervision, and are not capable of driving without human oversight.

2. Taking Tesla Private

- The promise: On August 7, 2018, Musk tweeted: “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”

- The reality: The SEC filed a lawsuit against Musk for this statement, concluding it was misleading, as funding was not fully secured for such a transaction. This resulted in a settlement between Musk, Tesla, and the SEC that included fines and Musk stepping down as Tesla chairman.

3. Tesla Robotaxi

- The promise: On April 22, 2019, during Tesla’s Autonomy Day, Musk claimed, “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year (2020).”

- The reality: As of 2024, Tesla has not launched a robotaxi service. The technology for fully autonomous vehicles capable of operating as robotaxis without human intervention remains in development, and regulatory approval has not been granted.

4. Cybertruck Towing Claims

- The promise: The Cybertruck can "Tow a Porsche 911 across the quarter mile faster than the Porsche 911 can go itself."

- The reality: Just patently false.

Which of Elon's promises will come true?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

📊 Stocks

Get $20 free shares at ​public.com​ using code ALTSCO.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Tesla reported a 9% drop in Q1 revenue, its steepest decline since 2012, yet shares rose more than 10% after hours.

  • Spotify swung to a Q1 profit that exceeded expectations, sending the stock up 15%.

  • General Motors topped Q1 estimates and raised its full-year outlook, citing robust truck and SUV demand; shares climbed 5%.

  • Texas Instruments projected Q2 revenue above estimates; shares rallied 5%.

  • JetBlue shares nosedived 18% after the airline slashed its 2024 revenue forecast.

  • HashiCorp shares spiked nearly 20% on a report that IBM is in talks to acquire the cloud software maker.

  • Visa beat Q2 EPS estimates sending stock up 0.65%.

  • RTX surpassed Q1 forecasts with a 12% sales jump, inching stock price up 0.08%.

  • Danaher vaulted over 7% to lead the S&P 500 after its Q1 results topped expectations.

  • Novartis lifted its 2024 outlook after Q1 profit surged 16%; shares ascended 4.6% to a two-month high.

Market movers

  • Tesla said it is launching new models ahead of schedule.

  • UnitedHealth confirms personal data was compromised in a cyberattack, impacting a "substantial proportion" of Americans.

  • The New York Stock Exchange is gauging interest in 24-hour stock trading.

  • EV startup Fisker plans more layoffs as cash dwindles and bankruptcy looms.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • The Biden administration expanded overtime for salaried workers impacting an expected 4 million people.

  • Meta's Threads now has more daily US users than Elon Musk's X.

  • The Texas economy outpaced the US as a whole for the 36th straight month in March, adding 19,100 jobs.

  • UK business activity accelerated to an 11-month high in April per early PMI data, indicating 0.4% GDP growth in Q2.

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇹🇼 More than 80 earthquakes, the strongest of 6.3 magnitude, rattled Taiwan's east coast starting Monday night.

  • 🇸🇻 El Salvador has improved security but its economy still struggles to grow with nearly a third of citizens living in poverty.

  • 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 The US is preparing a $1 billion weapons package for Ukraine, the first to be sourced from the Ukraine-Israel bill.

  • 🇰🇷 🇷🇴 South Korea and Romania pledged to boost defense industry cooperation as Seoul pushes to become the world's fourth-largest arms exporter.

  • 🇰🇵 🇺🇸 🇰🇷 North Korea issued a nuclear "warning signal" to the US and South Korea, saying its latest missile test was a drill to test nuclear force preparedness.

  • 🇲🇾 Two Malaysian navy helicopters collided in mid-air during a rehearsal for a naval parade, killing all 10 crew members aboard.

📊 Crypto

  • The 200 day trailing Bitcoin average price approached a record high.

  • Bitcoin now looks scarcer than gold after the halving cut new token issuance in half to an annual rate of ~0.9%.

  • Ripple fought against the SEC's push for $2 billion in fines over XRP sales, arguing for closer to $10 million.

  • YieldMax launched a new Bitcoin options ETF (YBIT) aiming to provide monthly income using options premiums on Bitcoin ETPs.

🧠 Errata

  • A dying SpaceX rocket tore a blood-red 'hole' in the Texas sky, an increasingly common phenomenon astronomers call a "SpaceX aurora."

  • AI can predict your political orientation from a blank, expressionless face, according to Stanford researchers.

  • Meet the Thermonator, a $9,420 fire-breathing robot dog that can shoot 30-foot jets of flame. What could go wrong?

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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