Good morning.
Oil just posted its biggest daily jump since October, and it has nothing to do with supply chains or OPEC quotas.
President Trump said he'll decide within 10 days whether to strike Iran, and the market is pricing in the risk. Brent crude hit $71.66, its highest level in nearly seven months. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil flowing to consumers every single day, is suddenly back in the crosshairs.
In this edition, we’re breaking down the Hormuz Chokepoint, why Texas Pacific Land is a geopolitical "safe haven," and why a spike in crude doesn't mean every energy stock is a winner.
Let's begin.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
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Don’t Be Fooled by Bread and Games
It’s happening right now…
A turning point that the former CEO of Google says is:
“The most important thing that’s going to happen in about 500 years – maybe 1,000 years of human society – and it’s happening in our lifetime.”
Yet very few are fully warning you of what’s coming.
Instead you’re kept distracted by the inane trivialities of “bread and circuses” while the very fabric of our lives erodes beneath our feet.
As one former U.S. Treasury Secretary says:
“When your great-grandchild writes the history of this period, my guess is that stuff about Donald Trump and Xi will be the second or third story.”
The first story they write about?
You and I have never seen anything like it before…
The dot-com collapse, global financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic… nothing we’ve seen in our lifetime holds a candle to what’s coming next.
In short, I believe we are about to be plunged into a period of dramatic, almost unimaginable change.
And you need to be ready, or risk being left behind.
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📰 Market Edge: The 10-Day Countdown to Hormuz
The oil market’s biggest fear has switched from simple "tension” to a physical blockage. President Trump’s 10-day ultimatum has traders eyeing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway where over 14 million barrels per day (a third of all seaborne oil) passed through in 2025 (CNBC).
The risk: Iran boasts vast stockpiles of mines and short-range missiles. If the Strait becomes unsafe, Lloyd’s of London won't insure tankers to carry oil through it. No insurance = no shipping.
Oil price target: Rystad Energy sees oil jumping $10–$15 per barrel instantly if the US and Iran start fighting. If the strait stays shut for a prolonged period of time, it could send Brent well north of $100.
The counter-view: JPMorgan thinks any US strike would be "surgical" rather than an all-out, long-term war. They predict the US would avoid oil infrastructure in their strikes to prevent a global recession ahead of the November midterms.
📈 The Main Stock: Texas Pacific Land (TPL)
If the Middle East goes dark, the Permian Basin (West Texas and southeastern New Mexico) becomes the world's most valuable real estate. And Texas Pacific Land (TPL) isn’t actually an oil company; it's a royalty giant that owns 880,000+ acres in West Texas.
Why TPL is our hedge of choice:
Zero-cost basis: Unlike drillers (OXY, PXD) who have to pay for labor, steel, and diesel to get oil out of the ground, TPL just collects a "tax" on every barrel produced on their land. If inflation or service costs spike during a war, TPL’s margins stay near 90%.
The AI Pivot: Beyond oil, TPL is turning into a tech play. The company signed a deal with Bolt to begin building data centers on some of its Texas land.
The Stats: Revenue and net income are up both YoY and QoQ, with a 77/100 AI rating and 100% positive employee outlook according to our partner, AltIndex.
🛢️ FYI: Not All Oil Companies Are Created Equal
Now, just because the US and Iran might go to war, don’t just start buying “oil” stocks blindly. A spike in crude prices creates winners and losers within the same sector.
📰 Key Earnings and Market Data
Walmart beat Q4 estimates but spooked investors with cautious guidance, citing tariffs and inflation headwinds. Shares fell over 1%. The silver lining? CFO John David Rainey told Yahoo Finance that food prices look "disinflationary, maybe even deflationary," with egg prices down appreciably.
Deere ripped 13% to a record high after crushing earnings and raising full-year profit guidance. CEO John May said he's "encouraged by the ongoing recovery" in construction and small agriculture—and that 2026 looks like the bottom of the cycle. It's the stock's best month since 1974.
Etsy surged 22% premarket after announcing it's selling Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion. eBay popped 7% on the deal, hoping to lure younger shoppers to its platform.
Klarna crashed 26% after reporting a $26 million Q4 loss and signaling slower growth ahead. Rising credit costs are squeezing the buy-now-pay-later space.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 206,000, the largest decline since November and well below the 225,000 expected. Traders are pricing in a 94% chance the Fed holds rates steady in March.
🤖 AI/Future/Tech News
OpenAI’s trillion-dollar ambition: Closing a $100 billion funding round at an $850 billion+ valuation to build global AI infrastructure.
SoftBank’s energy play: Constructing a $33 billion, 9.2-gigawatt gas plant in Ohio to power the next generation of data centers.
Waymo’s robotaxi roadblock: New York’s Governor killed plans for autonomous taxis outside NYC following heavy union pushback.
OpenAI’s India surge: Partnering with JioHotstar to bring AI search to 100 million weekly active users in local languages.
🤫 Insider Trading
🚚 Market Movers
UPS downsizing: Cutting 30,000 jobs and closing 22 facilities as the Amazon partnership fades and automation takes the wheel.
Legendary Amazon revenue reversal: Amazon officially passed Walmart in annual revenue for the first time ($716.9B vs $713.2B).
DoorDash growth: Shares jumped after the company projected record delivery demand and expanded local commerce growth for 2026.
🎙 Make Your Voice Heard
Will the US attack Iran, or will nothing happen?
🎤️ What you said last time
The answer was Meta (Facebook) in 2004!
🧠 The Missing (Market) Links
Booze in decline: Only 54% of U.S. adults now drink alcohol, as legal cannabis dispensaries now reach 79% of the population.
The cage-free egg war: The DOJ is suing Michigan over cage-free laws, arguing state standards shouldn't block out-of-state egg sales.
The shrinking trade deficit: The U.S. trade gap fell to $901 billion as exports rose 6% despite President Trump’s global tariff push.
Low hire, low fire: Indeed’s chief economist reports a stagnant labor market for 2026 where Healthcare drives 75% of job growth.
The great crop pivot: U.S. farmers are swapping corn for soybeans this year to combat global surpluses and rising input costs.
📜 Quote of the Day
Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.
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Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc
The information provided in Stocks & Income is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Stocks & Income is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or licensed financial planner. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We may hold positions in or receive compensation from the companies or products mentioned. Disclosures will be made where applicable. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
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