The economy is staring down the barrel of an 11-letter word that Wall Street hates. It’s not “computation” or “displeasure”, though both have 11 letters. It’s not inflation either, though that’s part of it.

We’re talking about stagflation.

Bad job report, soaring oil prices, and steady unemployment are mixing a nasty cocktail.

But before we jump into the unfortunate recipe, take a look at something that could make an actually great cocktail:

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

In partnership with Alts.co

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Markets tumbled on Thursday and have fallen another 1.1% so far today.

Rising oil prices and job losses equal potential stagflation. And it’s got people worried (understandably so).

The breakdown is simple: stagflation is a situation where prices get higher, economic growth slows down, and unemployment gets worse. It’s bad because there’s no easy way out of it.

Usually, the answer is for the Fed to raise rates, which can cause a recession, but only temporarily. The issue is that a recession would cause even more job losses, something the Fed does not want.

But like it or not, the situation does look stagflation-ary. Here’s what we’re seeing at the moment:

To be clear, long-term we’re still in the Abundance Theory camp. But 1) AI will replace a lot of jobs in the near term before it creates new ones, and 2) war is an unpredictable thing. We may be in for a time of stagflation; hopefully not, but who knows.

The important thing is this: if the economy is slowing down for a bit, what stocks tend to do well in those circumstances?

Yes, the coat factory. Because to answer our own question from above, one of the types of stocks that tends to do well in a stagflationary environment is value-oriented consumer businesses.

That’s because shoppers aren’t going to stop shopping, they’re just going to shop somewhere cheaper. Somewhere with off-price deals. Like a Burlington Coat Factory.

Here’s something that caught our eye about BURL specifically:

For context, BURL sits at $306.25 right now. That means a 24% or 31% upswing based on those two firms’ new targets.

Nothing is guaranteed, and we have no idea what BURL’s price will do. But we wanted to share what we found with you.

Always do your own research, and this isn’t financial advice.

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That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc