Markets took a breather Thursday after Wednesday's all-time highs. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%, and the Dow dropped 0.6%.

Two things to watch today: the April jobs report (economists expect 65,000 added) and whether Iran responds to the US peace proposal. Oil is climbing on the uncertainty.

But most important to you today: some retirement portfolio math that people don’t talk about enough right now.

Here's what we've got for you:

🧮 Retirement math: is 4% enough these days?
📉 Markets pulled back from record highs
✈️ Jet fuel doubled. Airlines are passing the pain to you.
⚖️ A federal court just struck down Trump's 10% tariffs
📊 Jobs report drops today

Let's get into it.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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The 4% rule is one of the most trusted numbers in personal finance. Withdraw 4% of your portfolio per year in retirement, adjust for inflation, and you probably won't run out of money over 30 years.

The problem is that rule was built in 1994, when the average American lived to about 76 (from Macrotrends). Today it's closer to 80. And if you believe (like we do) that AI and robotics are going to reshape medicine over the next two decades, planning for 30 years of retirement might not be enough.

If you retire at 65 and live to 95, that's 30 years. The 4% rule was designed for exactly that window. But longevity research is accelerating fast. AI is already speeding up drug discovery, early cancer detection is improving, and metabolic health is being transformed.

You know what else isn’t slowing down? Inflation. And if you switch your whole portfolio into bonds when you hit age 65, inflation might eat that 4% interest rate alive. The stock market would leave you right behind.

We're not saying everyone is going to live to 100. We're saying the probability of living well past 80 is going up, and most retirement plans aren't built for it.

A 35-year or 40-year retirement changes the math completely. At a 4% withdrawal rate over 40 years, the probability of running out of money jumps significantly (especially in a lower-return environment with inflation still grinding higher over time). Morningstar's latest research puts the safe rate at 3.9% for 30 years, dropping to 3.5% when you factor in long-term care. Stretch the timeline to 35 or 40 years and it gets tighter.

Stay in growth longer. The traditional advice is to shift heavily into bonds as you approach retirement. That made sense when retirement lasted 20 years. If it lasts 35+, you need your portfolio to keep compounding. We think keeping 40% to 60% in stocks through your 60s (and even into your 70s) is going to become the new normal for people with longer time horizons.

Rethink the bond shift. We're not saying skip bonds entirely. Fixed income still reduces volatility and provides income. But the old "your age in bonds" rule (60 years old = 60% bonds) leaves you underexposed to growth during the longest stretch of your investing life. A more modern framework: subtract your age from 110 or 120, not 100, to get your stock allocation. Maybe even 130 for the super-high-growth-inclined people out there.

Dividend growers over bond substitutes. For the income portion of your portfolio, companies that grow their dividends over time (Dividend Aristocrats, for example) give you rising income that keeps pace with inflation. Bonds don't do that. A 3% dividend that grows 7% a year doubles your income in about 10 years. A bond coupon stays flat.

Most retirement planning is built for a world where people die at 78. That world is changing. We think the investors who adjust now (more growth, longer time horizons, income that grows) are going to be in a much stronger position than the ones following a rule from 1994.

The 4% rule isn't wrong. It's just old. And if you're planning to live longer than your grandparents did, your portfolio should reflect that.

US stocks slipped on Thursday as investors weighed fresh earnings, watched oil prices climb, and awaited Iran's response to a US peace proposal.

Jet fuel costs have doubled since the Iran war started, and airlines are passing the pain straight to travelers. Summer airfares jumped 14.9% in March compared to last year, according to the US Travel Association. Delta disclosed $2 billion in additional fuel costs for the second quarter alone, while American Airlines expects $4 billion in extra expenses for the full year. The Strait of Hormuz blockage has paralyzed roughly 620,000 barrels per day of jet fuel and kerosene supplies, forcing carriers to slash thousands of flights heading into peak travel season.

Oil climbed on Thursday as investors watched for Iran's response to the latest US peace proposal. Brent futures rose even as CNN reported Iran could deliver its answer as soon as today. The near-10-week war continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz largely shut, removing more than 13 million barrels of crude from global markets.

A federal trade court struck down President Trump's 10% blanket tariffs in a 2-1 ruling Thursday. The Court of International Trade sided with small businesses that argued the duties sidestepped the Supreme Court's January decision. The ruling comes just days after the government opened its tariff refund portal on Monday, with checks expected this summer for more than 25,000 importers including Costco and FedEx.

SK Hynix is drowning in chip orders. The South Korean memory chipmaker is flooded with unprecedented offers from big tech firms scrambling to secure supplies as AI infrastructure spending accelerates.

Cloudflare missed revenue estimates and announced job cuts as the cybersecurity and web infrastructure company warned of softer demand ahead. The forecast disappointed investors betting on continued strength in cloud security spending.

Lyft beat Wall Street forecasts on strong demand for premium rides. The rideshare company's gross bookings topped expectations as customers increasingly opted for higher-end services despite elevated prices.

Airbnb boosted its 2026 revenue outlook on increased bookings, signaling travel demand remains resilient even as gas prices and airfares climb. The vacation rental platform's upbeat guidance suggests consumers are prioritizing experiences over goods.

Vintage designer jewelry from heritage houses is emerging as a serious alternative asset as the secondary market explodes. Combined sales of Van Cleef & Arpels pieces at Sotheby's, Christie's, and Artcurial totaled more than €120 million in 2024, prompting the maison to launch its Heritage Collection, a curated selection of authenticated 20th-century creations including 1960s transformable diamond necklaces, Art Deco "Ludo" bracelets, and wartime "patriotic jewels" from the 1940s.

Every piece carries a unique engraved number checked against archives, ensuring original gemstones and unmodified mounts. Unlike ultra-high-end collectibles requiring specialized knowledge, vintage designer jewelry occupies an accessible sweet spot: something people might already own or inherit, with robust authentication infrastructure and real resale liquidity.

Sunday Supper is a plant-based Italian food brand making premium frozen entrees that actually taste like the real thing. The company launched with a viral lasagna developed by a James Beard Award-winning chef, and it's now expanding into appetizers and single-serve options designed to bring restaurant-quality comfort food to the freezer aisle.

The brand has landed in 650+ retail doors including Whole Foods Market, The Fresh Market, Albertsons, and GIANT. Their Mozza Fritto appetizer is reportedly selling 6x more units per week than the frozen category average, and they've pulled in backing from some notable names: vegan VC Ryan Bethencourt, actress Daniella Monet, and author Gene Stone. The founding team previously built and exited brands like Good Planet Foods, Cinnaholic, and Surface Media. Oh, and when Billie Eilish sent their lasagna to 250 friends? That probably didn't hurt either.

See the campaign →

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc