💣 Things are heating up in the Middle East

🎉 But earnings season starts today. Also, taxes

Happy Tax Day to our American readers. I hope today is not too painful for you (at least you’re not paying as much as this guy).

It's a golden moment for Private Credit ☀️

And the best opportunities may be found abroad

The private debt market is exploding, and Percent is the only platform exclusively dedicated to private credit.

The US pioneered this asset class. But today, a majority of the world’s private credit assets are invested outside the US.

Why? Because the fastest-growing economies are abroad, and contain millions of unbanked citizens.

Some of the best private credit opportunities lie abroad. This ePesos payroll lending deal on Percent closed in late 2022 and has been fully repaid.

A geographically diversified private credit mix could be an especially productive strategy right now.

Check out Percent. As a subscriber, you can earn up to a $500 bonus with your first investment.

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📰 Market Headlines

  • Last week was rough, with the Dow sliding 2.5% and the S&P500 down 1.6%.

  • Then Iran attacked Israel with over 300 drones and missiles on Sunday, but nearly all of them were intercepted.

  • Earnings season kicks off for real this week, including reports from heavies like Netflix, Blackstone, TSMC, and Procter & Gamble.

  • March’s retail sales report prints tomorrow, a 0.4% uptick is expected vs February. Canadian inflation and US building permits data will also be released.

  • Civil War topped the box office over the weekend, beating estimates while unseating Godzilla.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via ​Kalshi​, the prediction market.

The odds of a rate cut by June…👀 👀 👀

😱 Fear and Greed Index

Ouchtown.

📈 Trends you need to know

Search volume for World War 3 is up more than 300% month over month.

🧠 What do you think?

💬 Have your say

With Iran’s escalation over the weekend and recent reports China is funneling support to Russia in Ukraine, the odds of a global conflict are higher than they’ve been for decades.

Do you have an investment plan for WW3?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

🎤 What you said last time

I’d love to meet the three of you who think OJ didn’t do it.

📊 Stocks

Get $20 free shares at ​public.com​ using code ALTSCO.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • A slew of earnings calls this week will keep us busy.

    • Monday: Charles Schwab (SCHW), Goldman Sachs (GS)

    • Tuesday: Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), United Airlines (UAL), United Health Group (UNH)

    • Wednesday: Alcoa (AA), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Synovus (SNV), Travelers (TRV)

    • Thursday: Netflix (NFLX), Alaska Airlines (ALK), Ally Financial (ALLY), Blackstone (BX), KeyBank (KEY), PPG (PPG), TSMC (TSM), Union Pacific (UNP), Western Alliance (WAL)

    • Friday: American Express (AXP), Procter & Gamble (PG)

Market movers

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • Gen Z helped drive enrollment in vocational education programs up 16% last year and pushed down the median age.

  • The personal saving rate fell to 3.6% in February, the lowest in over a year.

  • Childcare costs have outpaced inflation, with the average cost of daycare hitting $16,692 annually in 2024.

  • Morgan Stanley sees a "hot summer" ahead for the energy sector and names BP, TotalEnergies, and Repsol as its top picks.

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇦🇺 A knife attacker killed six people in a Sydney mall before being shot dead by police. “Five of the six victims killed were women, while eight people, including a nine-month-old baby, were taken to hospital with stab wounds.”

  • 🇬🇧 UK weather-related insurance claims reached a record £573m in 2023.

  • 🇮🇹 Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called surrogacy an "inhuman practice" and is backing penalties like fines and prison sentences.

  • 🇸🇴🇪🇹 Somalia said it will never accept Ethiopia's plan to build a naval base in its breakaway Somaliland region.

  • 🇰🇭 An astonishing array of 700 different species were discovered in Cambodia's threatened mangrove habitats.

📊 Crypto

  • Bitcoin's halving is one week away, set to arrive around April 20th. The block subsidy will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

  • The crypto market plunged, with total liquidations hitting $468 million in one hour.

  • Bitcoin fell 8% to below $62k before rebounding to around $65k.

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

Is Tehran playing 3D Chess?

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

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