Three days is a streak

*past 24-hour performance

💨 TL;DR

  1. Equities slid for the third day in a row.

  2. Oil hit a five-month low.

  3. McDonalds will open 10k new stores worldwide.

  4. Bitcoin topped $44k.

Take advantage of the upcoming supply and demand imbalance in Texas

Did you know that:

  • Over half a million people have moved to Texas since the summer of 2021.

  • Yet multifamily construction starts are down more than 70% in 2023.

This will create a supply and demand imbalance that, to us as investors, can mean only one thing — opportunity.

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📰 Market Headlines

  • US Stock Market Slip: The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all declined. The S&P 500 fell about 0.4%, the Dow dropped nearly 0.2%, and the Nasdaq shed roughly 0.6%. This was partly due to signs of economic malaise and a softening labor market.

  • Missed Expectations: The ADP gauge on private payrolls in November missed expectations, adding only 103,000 jobs, compared to the anticipated 130,000.

  • Oil Prices Hit 5-Month Lows: West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude both fell, settling at $69.38 and $74.30 per barrel, respectively. This drop in oil prices is attributed to signs of weak demand and rising gasoline stockpiles, indicating a potential economic slowdown.

  • Wall Street's Response: Wall Street reacted to these developments with mixed results. While energy stocks like Halliburton and Marathon Oil faced significant drops, homebuilder Toll Brothers reported stronger profits than expected. This, along with hopes for a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, provided some relief to the market. Travel-related companies also saw gains due to the fall in crude oil prices.

  • Economic Reports and Treasury Yields: Reports indicating a stronger-than-expected gain in productivity and a cooldown in the job market, potentially easing inflationary pressures, were released. Consequently, Treasury yields in the bond market were generally lower.

  • International Market Movements: Stock markets abroad, particularly in Japan, were mostly higher. The Nikkei 225 jumped 2% following the Bank of Japan's commitment to maintain its easy monetary policy.

  • Fresh Capital: SpaceX has approached investors about another tender offer that would value the company at above $175 billion

  • Diamonds in the Rough: G7 leaders agreed to restrict imports of Russian diamonds.

  • A Slimmer Majority: Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is resigning from Congress at the end of the month. His decision comes a day after Rep. Patrick McHenry, who briefly served as temporary speaker following McCarthy's ouster, also announced he would leave Congress.

  • Carnage: A gunman killed three and wounded one at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Brought to you by Kalshi, our favorite prediction market. Get $25 with this link.

  • JPMorgan’s head of technical strategy, Jason Hunter views a US recession as very likely. He says the S&P 500 is likely to tumble 23% to 3,500 points by mid-2024.

  • Markets are pricing in at least 100 basis points of cuts next year.

End-of-year forecasts

4,550

15,791

Macro forecasts

3.87%

3.31%

178,407

1% chance

1.4%

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

SpaceX is raising again at a $175 billion valuation. Will it be a trillion dollar company?

Best comments will feature tomorrow.

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🎤 What you said last time

Y’all are overwhelmingly negative on EVs, with more than ¾ of you refusing to touch the things.

Going electric

“Much simpler than ICEs - no oil change etc. But I'm waiting for the next big improvement in battery tech to provide a good range at a low price. Currently have a Nissan LEAF.”

Sticking with ICE

“Operating range limited and lack of charging stations. Many places in Canada have significant distance requirements beyond EV ability. Battery repair and/or replacement presents extremely high costs. Numerous fires from battery issues. Overall mechanical repair IE: Brake systems, significant power consumption hauling heavy battery pack. New highly efficient gas vehicles overcome above concerns”

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

  • Amidst a push for growth, McDonald's set an aggressive target to open 10,000 new stores by 2027. The strategic expansion aims to enhance its global footprint and adapt to changing consumer preferences.

  • C3.ai reported mixed results for its fiscal second quarter, including a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook. Shares slid 9.3%

  • Temu is pulling market share away from US dollar stores like Dollar General.

  • Shopify was downgraded by one analyst from Outperform to Neutral. Shares fell 4.8%.

  • GameStop reported sales dropped 9%, and its loss narrowed for its third fiscal quarter after the videogame retailer cut costs.

  • The Roots CEO says the retailer has a “cautious outlook these days because some shoppers are delaying holiday purchases as they become more price sensitive.”

  • The Federal Trade Commission is making another run at blocking Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

  • A Nordic union joined a Tesla blockade in support of Swedish workers.

  • New Mexico has sued Meta and its CEO over child protection failures, calling its platforms “prime locations for predators to trade child pornography and solicit minors for sex.”

  • AbbVie is nearing an approximately $8 billion deal to acquire Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

📊 Income

📊 Crypto

  • Bitcoin topped $44k for the first time in over 19 months today. The catalyst is a growing belief that a BTC ETF will be approved in January 2024. The ETF will attract significant capital inflow from institutional investors, increasing demand for the supply-constrained coin.

  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that he would shut down the entire crypto industry if he had the power.

🌍 Global Perspectives

🇨🇳 🇭🇰 Moody’s cut its outlook for eight Chinese banks to negative from stable. It also lowered Hong Kong’s outlook from stable to negative, citing its linkages with mainland China.

🇭🇰 🇸🇦 🇨🇳 Saudi Arabia’s PIF is setting up shop in Hong Kong as a bridge to mainland China.

🇬🇾 🇻🇪 Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali said his country is taking every necessary step to protect itself from Venezuela, which has ordered its state-owned companies to explore and exploit oil and minerals in Guyana’s vast Essequibo region. Oil there is valued at around $1 trillion.

🇷🇺 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 Escorted by four fighter jets, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare one-day lightning tour to the Middle East. He visited Saudi Arabia after a short trip to the United Arab Emirates.

🇪🇬 A container ship has crashed into a bridge in the Suez Canal.

💎 Wealth Watch

  • Why do you invest?

  • Tax filing scams to look out for.

  • What is a conservatorship?

  • Most Americans feel the economy is in recession despite a strong job market and steady growth.

  • If the Supreme Court rules for the government in Moore v. U.S., all unrealized gains will be taxable under existing law.

  • The Biden administration announced it will forgive an additional $4.8 billion in student loan debt for 80,300 borrowers.

🗳️ Outside the Box

📺 What to Watch Today

📈 Trends you need to know

Brought to you by our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Despite a softening labor market, search volume for food stamps (the SNAP program) is declining.

That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.

Cheers,

Wyatt

Notes

Please read this disclaimer. The authors of Alt Assets, Inc. are not attorneys, investment advisers, accountants, tax professionals or financial advisers and any of the content should not be taken as professional advice. They are self-taught accredited investors, sharing information, research, entertainment and lessons learned based solely on their own experience and circumstances. Individual results may vary. The published content is unique, based on certain assumptions and market conditions at the time of publishing, and is intended to serve solely as research, not financial advice. For entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice. Alts I LLC (the “Fund”) is an affiliate of Alt Assets, Inc. and the Fund has conducted a private placement offering under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Fund may invest in one, several, or all of the alternative asset classes that Alt Assets, Inc. publishes content about on its site. Any of the Fund’s investments that have positive designations on the Alt Assets, Inc. site are purely coincidental, as the Fund is actively managed and guided by its own investment parameters, as summarized in the relevant private placement memorandum. Alternative investing involves a high degree of risk, including complete loss of principal and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The newsletter may contain affiliate links, meaning that Alts.co and its associated entities may receive compensation for referring customers to the noted companies. We recommend seeking the advice of a financial professional before you make any investment in an alternative asset class or any associated entities, and we accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage you may incur.

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