Trump extended the Iran ceasefire last night. No end date. No deadline. Just "until such time as" Iran submits a unified proposal to end the war.

Futures are green this morning (S&P +0.55%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Dow +0.44%). Oil pulled back from yesterday's highs. And then, almost on cue, Iran seized two more ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

So the ceasefire is extended. The ships are still getting grabbed. And "indefinite" doesn't mean "resolved." It means nobody knows how long this lasts.

We're going to walk through what that actually means for your portfolio today and how to position for both outcomes.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

The good news is real. An indefinite extension is better than an expiration. Markets are exhaling. Oil is coming off the highs. And the fact that Trump went out of his way to extend (rather than let it lapse and escalate) tells you the White House wants a deal.

But "indefinite" is a weird word. It sounds permanent. It's not. It just means there's no deadline, which also means there's no timeline for resolution. The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports stays in place. Iran is still seizing ships and has dismissed the extension as a stalling tactic. The Strait of Hormuz is technically open and practically still a mess.

So here's the honest framework: the ceasefire extension makes the "peace" outcome more likely, but it doesn't make the "escalation" outcome impossible. And rather than trying to predict which one wins, we think the smarter move is making sure your portfolio works in both.

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Oil drops. The growth trade resumes. Semis, tech, and AI infrastructure are the biggest beneficiaries because capital expenditure confidence comes back when energy costs stabilize and geopolitical risk fades. The names to watch:

LAM Research (LRCX) — AltIndex score: 87. We just wrote about this one yesterday, and it reports earnings today. It’s the highest-scoring stock on AltIndex's leaderboard, sitting at the center of the AI chip buildout. December quarter revenue was $5.34 billion (up 22% year over year), and analysts have it rated Strong Buy with targets up to $350 (currently ~$258). If geopolitical risk fades, capex confidence returns, and the AI infrastructure cycle accelerates. LAM is one of the first names that benefits.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) — AltIndex score: 79. Marvell's data center revenue grew 21% YOY last quarter, and they're in active talks with Google on custom AI chip partnerships. The stock has been one of the strongest performers in semis over the past year. Data center demand isn't slowing down regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, but a peace resolution removes the overhang that's been capping the broader tech rally.

Knife River (KNF) — AltIndex score: 86. This one isn't a tech name. Knife River is an infrastructure and construction aggregates company with FY2026 revenue guidance of $3.3 to $3.5 billion. Infrastructure spending is bipartisan and war-agnostic, AND they’re building data centers, too. Roads, bridges, and water systems get built whether there's a ceasefire or not.

Oil stays elevated. Inflation pressure continues. The growth rally stalls. And the stocks that do well are the ones tied to the conflict itself or the uncertainty it creates.

Anglogold Ashanti (AU) — AltIndex score: 80. Gold is sitting near $4,800 an ounce after pulling back from highs near $5,600 earlier this year. Even with the ceasefire extension, gold is still up 9.30% because a lot of structural drivers haven't changed: geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, and inflation that won't come down while oil is elevated. Anglogold is one of the largest gold miners in the world, and an 80 AltIndex score says the data beyond just the gold price (hiring, social buzz, and financials) looks strong.

ITT Inc (ITT) — AltIndex score: 81. ITT makes specialty components for aerospace and defense (connectors, fluid handling, motion control). Q4 revenue hit $1 billion, up 13% year over year. Defense budgets are going up, not down, and every military deployment in the Gulf runs on components from companies like ITT. This is a name that does well as long as the conflict is active, but also has a secular tailwind from defense modernization that doesn't disappear with a peace deal.

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You don't have to pick a side. You're not a geopolitical analyst. You're an investor.

The framework is simple: keep your growth and AI exposure for the peace scenario (LRCX, MRVL, KNF). Keep some gold and defense exposure for the uncertainty scenario (AU, ITT). And recognize that several of these names (particularly KNF and ITT) do fine in either environment.

We aren’t trying to hedge on one side or the other here. We’re just talking about building a portfolio that doesn't depend on one headline!

US stocks slid on Tuesday as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled and Wall Street digested Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing.

LAM Research reports earnings today after the close. We flagged this yesterday (87 AltIndex score, highest on the leaderboard). Analysts expect $1.36 EPS. The AI chip equipment cycle is the story here, and the numbers should tell us whether that demand is still accelerating.

Tesla reports earnings today after the close. This is the one the market is watching most closely this week. The stock has been volatile, delivery numbers have been mixed, and investors want clarity on margins and the robotaxi timeline. We'll have more on this tomorrow.

Mortgage rates sank again, and home buyers are jumping back in. The 30-year fixed dropped to 6.3% after six straight days of declines. That's still high by recent standards, but it's enough to bring buyers back off the sidelines. If the ceasefire leads to lower oil and cooler inflation, rate cuts get closer, and this trend accelerates.

Google unveiled new AI chips in its latest shot at Nvidia. Google announced the TPU 8i for inference and a new generation 8 training chip. The training chip delivers 2.8x the performance of Google's previous generation for the same price. Google isn't trying to out-Nvidia Nvidia on the open market (these chips are for Google Cloud customers), but the signal is clear: the hyperscalers are building their own silicon and they're getting serious about it.

Palantir landed a $300 million deal with the USDA. The blanket purchase agreement will modernize USDA services to farmers, enhance supply chain resilience, and protect agricultural programs from fraud. Palantir keeps stacking government contracts, and $300 million is a big one.

ASM International popped 8% on an earnings beat. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported Q1 revenue of 863 million euros (high end of guidance) with a record adjusted operating margin of 33.1%. Another signal that the chip equipment cycle is running hot.

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh promised he won't be President Trump's "sock puppet" during a heated confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. When Republican Sen. John Kennedy asked if he'd bend to the president's repeated demands for lower rates, Warsh responded "absolutely not".

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc