President Trump addressed the nation last night for the first time since the Iran war began. Twenty minutes. Prime time. The market was hoping for an off-ramp. Instead, it got a promise to "hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks."

Futures dropped immediately. Oil spiked above $111. And this morning, every major index is in the red.

But buried inside the speech were a few signals that matter more than the tough talk. We break down what the market actually heard, how every major asset class is responding, and the specific dates and events that will determine where things go from here.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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Trump claimed the war is "nearing completion" and declared that Iran's navy and air force have been destroyed. But the part that moved markets was what came next: two to three more weeks of "extremely hard" strikes, with a direct threat to obliterate Iran's power plants, oil wells, and desalination facilities if a deal isn't reached by April 6.

So, no concrete exit strategy. No ceasefire timeline. No details on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets wanted clarity, but they got escalation with a vague expiration date.

The overnight reaction was ugly. WTI surged 11.5% above $111 per barrel. Futures dropped across the board. The Dow fell as much as 668 points, the S&P sank 1.5%, and the Nasdaq was down 2.2% at its lows. Asia got hit harder: South Korea's Kospi dropped 4.5%, Tokyo's Nikkei fell 2.4%. Gold fell 3.4% rather than rising, weighed down by a stronger dollar and rising yields that are overpowering its safe-haven appeal. Bitcoin fell to $66,000, down over 3%, trading like a risk asset, not a hedge.

Then came something of a reversal.

Midmorning, Iran's deputy foreign minister announced that Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to "monitor and coordinate" tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It's not a reopening. But it's the first time since the war began that Iran has publicly discussed managing the Strait rather than blocking it. Markets snapped higher almost immediately: the Dow clawed back from -668 to briefly turn green, the S&P recovered from -1.5% to +0.4%, and the Nasdaq swung from -2.2% to +0.3% at its peak.

It's a fragile bounce, not a breakout. But the fact that a single headline about managing traffic (not even reopening it) triggered that kind of reversal tells you how badly markets want to see any signal of de-escalation.

Scenario 1: Deal by April 6. Trump's deadline passes and Iran agrees to reopen the Strait. Oil crashes back toward $80. Stocks rip higher in a relief rally. This is what Goldman's base case assumes. The deadline extension pattern (48 hours to 5 days to 10 days) and today's Oman protocol news both suggest both sides are inching toward the table. But Iran keeps denying that direct talks are even happening.

Scenario 2: Escalation through mid-April. Trump follows through on striking energy infrastructure. The Strait stays closed. Oil executives warn that without reopening by mid-April, supply disruptions get dramatically worse as strategic reserves run thin. Brent pushes toward $130+. Goldman's bear case has it exceeding its 2008 all-time high. Recession odds jump.

Scenario 3: Prolonged grind. No deal, no major escalation, just weeks of uncertainty. This is arguably the worst outcome for markets because it extends the "fog of war" discount across every asset class. Volatility stays elevated, oil stays above $100, and investor paralysis deepens.

April 6: Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait (although he didn’t even bring this deadline up in his speech last night). If it passes without action, expect further mayhem. If it gets extended again, markets may actually read that as cautiously positive, meaning talks are still alive.

The Oman protocol: Today's announcement is the first crack in the door. If it evolves from "monitoring traffic" into actual coordinated reopening, that's the headline that could send oil below $100 and trigger a broad relief rally. Watch for follow-up language from both sides over the next few days.

Mid-April: The window where oil executives and analysts say supply disruptions become structurally worse. Strategic petroleum reserves start running thin. If the Strait is still closed by then, the market reprices everything.

Earnings season (mid-April): Q1 results will be the first to reflect the war's impact on corporate earnings, shipping costs, and consumer spending. Energy companies will crush estimates. Everyone else is a question mark.

SpaceX officially filed for its IPO, offering investors a long-awaited stake in Elon Musk's rocket empire. The blockbuster debut is expected to be one of the largest tech offerings in years.

Related Digital is closing in on $16 billion in financing for an Oracle data center, signaling that the appetite for AI infrastructure remains red-hot.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Apple, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft that it would target their operations. Tech stocks shrugged it off and closed modestly higher anyway.

Nissan is targeting a US comeback. The automaker said it's been the fastest-growing US brand over the past six months and is aiming for 10% US sales growth in 2026, with a goal of 1 million annual sales by 2027. The company boosted the share of US-built vehicles sold domestically from 45% to as high as 65%, with plans to reach 80%.

Tesla to report Q1 delivery numbers, offering a glimpse at how Elon's EV empire is weathering the shifting competitive landscape.

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc