Today might be the most important day for markets since the war started.

Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires tonight at 8 PM ET.

The threat: every bridge and power plant in Iran gets hit.

Iran's response: lining up young people, athletes, and artists around those very same power plants as human shields.

This is what's driving markets today. Here's what you need to know.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Today’s sponsor:

Let's get straight to it.

President Trump has warned Iran that "a whole civilization will die tonight" unless a deal is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 PM ET. Here’s his post. He's threatened to strike every bridge and power plant in the country if the deadline passes without an agreement.

Iran is not backing down. Instead of negotiating, Iran's government is calling on young people, athletes, artists, and students to form human chains around power plants in a campaign they're calling "Iran's Youth Human Chain for a Bright Future."

Meanwhile, the U.S. struck Kharg Island today, Iran's most critical oil export hub, which handles up to 90% of the country's oil exports.

Oil is at $113 WTI / $110 Brent as of this morning.

Here's something of a wrench in the narrative, though. Wall Street firm Citrini Research actually sent an analyst to Oman's Musandam Peninsula to see what's really happening at the strait. What they found challenges the story that's been driving oil prices higher for weeks.

About 15 ships a day are still getting through. That's well below normal levels, but it's not zero. Based on interviews with fishermen, smugglers, and regional officials, the analyst reported that Iran is selectively allowing vessels to pass, creating what Citrini described as a "functional checkpoint" rather than a full blockade. Many ships are also turning off their transponders, meaning actual traffic is likely higher than what tracking data shows.

This matters because the oil price spike has been built on the assumption that the strait is effectively shut. If the reality is more nuanced than that, oil could be somewhat overpriced at $113. A ceasefire deal tonight would likely send crude sharply lower and give equities a major boost. An escalation does the opposite.

Scenario 1: A deal gets done. Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey have been pushing a 45-day ceasefire framework. If something materializes, expect oil to drop fast (potentially back toward $90-100), defense stocks to pull back, and a broad rally in equities. Airlines, consumer discretionary, and tech would likely benefit the most.

Scenario 2: The deadline passes and strikes begin. If Trump follows through on hitting Iran's infrastructure, oil likely spikes further past $115-120. Energy stocks rally. Everything else sells off. Gold and Treasuries might become the safe havens.

Scenario 3: The deadline passes with no deal but no major escalation either. Trump extends the deadline again (he already did this once over the weekend) or launches limited strikes that fall short of the "every bridge and power plant" threat. Markets chop sideways. Oil stays elevated but doesn't spike. Based on the pattern we've seen so far, we think this is probably the most likely outcome.

If we were sitting on cash right now, we'd be keeping it ready but not deploying it yet. War-driven sell-offs have historically been buying opportunities because the fear tends to overshoot the actual economic damage. If we get a panic sell-off tonight or tomorrow morning, that's when we'd start looking at the names on our watchlist at better prices.

If we were fully invested, we'd be staying the course. The companies in our portfolios didn't change because of a Truth Social post. Tonight matters, but making a big portfolio move based on a headline that could reverse in 24 hours is how you lock in losses you didn't need to take.

Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

US stocks edged higher on Monday as traders juggled hopes for a ceasefire with President Trump's escalating threats toward Iran.

Oil whipsawed before settling higher, with WTI crude topping $112 per barrel after President Trump warned he could destroy "every bridge in Iran by 12 o'clock tomorrow night" if Tehran doesn't agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET Tuesday.

Gas prices could hit $5 per gallon if the strait stays closed much longer, JPMorgan warned. The national average already climbed to $4.12, up $0.80 from a month ago. California is sitting at $5.92, with some cities already seeing $6 at the pump and diesel hitting a record $7.68.

President Trump backed off seizing Iran's oil, telling reporters at the White House Easter egg roll: "Unfortunately, the American people would like to see us come home." He'd been teasing the idea for weeks, but acknowledged a ground operation targeting strategic points like Kharg Island lacks political support.

Gold slipped 0.5% as traders weighed whether President Trump's threats would lead to escalation or a last-minute deal. Mediators from Pakistan are pushing for a 45-day ceasefire, with reports that Iran and the US received a proposal framework.

Amazon locked in a deal with USPS that maintains 80% of its package volume, a relief for both sides after months of contentious negotiations.

Blue Owl plunged to a record low amid a broader private credit pullback, as investors continued to yank capital from alternative asset managers facing rising redemption pressure. Goldman Sachs narrowly avoided a similar fate, with one of its funds seeing just under 5% of assets requested for redemption in Q1.

Nvidia-backed Firmus raised $505 million to build AI data centers across Asia-Pacific, underscoring that capital is still flowing aggressively into AI infrastructure despite broader market jitters.

Key inflation data drops Friday, and investors are watching closely. The ISM services report on Monday showed input prices accelerating sharply while employment shrank by the most since 2023.

Colored gemstones are emerging as a preferred asset class among wealthy investors seeking tangible value during economic uncertainty. Following a record-breaking Tiffany & Co. sale featuring a rare Paraiba tourmaline at Christie's, high-net-worth individuals are allocating capital to gemstone-driven jewelry as a portable store of value.

Surging gold prices enhance the underlying value of gold-heavy pieces, while branded jewelry demonstrates strong resale performance. Experts cite key advantages: gemstones retain value during inflation, offer superior scarcity versus fashion accessories, and appeal to younger collectors. Millennials and Gen Z now represent a significant portion of Christie's luxury buyers. Industry analysts expect the trend to continue as macroeconomic uncertainty persists.

Your feedback matters to us! Let us know what you liked or didn’t like about today’s edition.

That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc