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📰 Market Headlines

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

21% of traders STILL think the Fed will cut rates in March. The number on Kalshi is much closer to reality.

The CME also still shows six full rate cuts in 2024 as the most likely outcome. It’s four on Kalshi. I think 2 - 3 is right.

Easy money there if you want it [disclosure: I have tiny positions on No rate cuts in March and between one and three rate cuts in 2024.]

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

🎤 What you said last time

Chiefs

“Mahomes’s SB experience will make the difference.”

“[The Chiefs] just seem very strong. I think the 49ers' luck runs out, but I would prefer to see the 49ers win.”

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

• Uber posted its first full-year profit in five years, smashed earnings, and beat revenue. Shares are at an all-time high.

• Alibaba missed on revenue but approved a $25 billion share buyback. Shares down 6.7%.

• Disney beat tepid earnings estimates thanks to cost-cutting and record theme park revenue but missed revenue slightly. The company “lost 1.3 million core subscribers to its Disney+ streaming service during the quarter, but it made more money from each subscriber due to price hikes for the service. “ Disney will also buy back $3 billion in shares this year and issue a $0.45 dividend in July. Shares up 7%.

• Brutal earnings report for shipping giant Maersk, which has struggled to navigate the Red Sea crisis. The company guided down significantly for 2024 and suspended its dividend. Shares are down 12%.

• Roblox beat earnings and revenue and guided higher. Shares jumped 10%.

• Moody’s downgraded New York Community Bancorp to junk status.

Market movers

• Disney is buying a $1.5 billion stake in Epic Games (makers of Fortnite). The two companies will partner to produce games based on Disney IP. Sticking with Disney, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is coming to Disney+ in March.

• Snoop is suing Walmart and Post Consumer Brands, saying "Post ensured that Snoop Cereal would not be available to consumers or that it would incur exorbitant costs that would eliminate any profit to Broadus Foods."

• Layoffs watch:

  • McKinsey is targeting 3,000 layoffs.

  • Tesla, TBD.

• McDonalds plans to open 1,000 restaurants in China this year.

📺 What to Watch Today