- Stocks & Income
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- Waiting for the Fed
Waiting for the Fed
Wyatt from Alts
13 Dec
*past 24-hour performance
💨 TL;DR
CPI came in as expected, more or less. Markets rallied.
The Fed reports today. No change is expected.
Epic won its anti-trust case against Google.
Elon lost his Starlink subsidy.
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📰 Market Headlines
Inflation ticked up slightly, increasing by 0.1% MoM.
Undeterred, the Dow and S&P 500 hit a 23-month high. The Nasdaq advanced as well. Oil was off 4%. 51 different S&P 500 stocks saw record highs yesterday.
Meanwhile, everyone’s holding their breath this morning, waiting to see what the Fed will do with rates. Futures are up slightly.
The COP28 climate summit approved a deal that would, for the first time, push nations to transition away from fossil fuels to avert the worst effects of climate change.
🕶️ Market Vibes
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures
The markets are forecasting:
1% chance for a +25 bp rate hike at today’s FOMC meeting.
3% chance of a 25 bp rate cut in January
43% chance of a cut for the March meeting
and 100% chance of a cut by the April 30-May 1 meeting
100% feels very high. Odds are only 75% by July at Kalshi.
End-of-year forecasts
Macro forecasts
3.71% 3.41% 175,601 | < 1% chance 75% 1.60% |
😱 Fear and Greed Index
🧠 What do you think?
The Dodgers just handed Shohei Ohtani a $700m contract, sort of.Best comments tomorrow |
🎤 What you said last time
Y’all are really not into AI. Noted.
📊 Stocks
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Winners and losers
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions
Oracle missed estimates; shares were down 12%.
Icosavax is being acquired by Astra Zenica. Its shares were up 50%.
Further, Seagen rallied +3.6% after Pfizer said it had received all required regulatory approvals to close its acquisition of the company on December 14.
Likewise, Piper Sandler upgraded HubSpot; shares were up 5.35%.
Market movers
With two large-scale elections in the US and India next year, Meta’s Threads will introduce a fact-checking program to the social network.
Choice Hotels is launching an $8 billion hostile takeover offer for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts.
Hasbro is cutting 1,100 positions or 20% of its staff. Shares were down slightly.
The UAW is accusing Honda, Volkswagen, and Hyundai of union-busting.
Viewers have watched over 100 billion hours of shows and films on Netflix this year. Basic Instinct and the original Rambo films were among the least-watched.
Boeing is within striking distance of its annual targets after a strong November.
Starlink has lost its $900 million subsidy from the US government.
Ideas, trends, and analysis
How a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana could affect the global shipping trade.
Global sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) rose 20% versus a year ago as strong growth in North America and China offset lower sales in Europe. But Ford just slashed production of its F-150 Lightning.
TikTok is a boon for the skincare industry.
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📊 Income
The 10-year German bund yield fell by -4.4 bp to 2.226%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell sharply by -11.0 bp to 3.967%.
📊 Crypto
Prices as of Saturday 2am EST.
🌍 Global Perspectives
🇨🇳 China's banking system is collapsing, and the real estate crisis in the country could end up wiping out $4 trillion from its financial system. But Zhang Yadong, chairman of property developer Greentown and a man keen not to be disappeared, says an economic recovery will help trigger a turnaround in the second half of next year.
🇦🇷 Argentina will weaken its peso over 50% to 800 per dollar, cut energy subsidies, and cancel public works tenders.
🇻🇳 Why everyone wants to be Vietnam’s friend.
🇬🇾 🇻🇪 Guyana vows to defend itself ‘by all and any means’ from Venezuela.
🇬🇧 The UK has voted to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda.
🇬🇧 Sticking with the UK, its economy shrank more than expected in October.
💎 Wealth Watch
Gas prices have fallen 19% since September. See where fuel is the cheapest.
The "American Dream" costs far more than most people will earn over their lifetime.
The most affordable place to retire in America.
🗳️ Outside the Box
📺 What to Watch Today
Based in Reno, Dragonfly Energy is a leader in the green energy storage industry. Shares are down 96% this year, but the company’s popularity continues to grow.
That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Notes
Please read this disclaimer. The authors of Alt Assets, Inc. are not attorneys, investment advisers, accountants, tax professionals or financial advisers and any of the content should not be taken as professional advice. They are self-taught accredited investors, sharing information, research, entertainment and lessons learned based solely on their own experience and circumstances. Individual results may vary. The published content is unique, based on certain assumptions and market conditions at the time of publishing, and is intended to serve solely as research, not financial advice. For entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice. Alts I LLC (the “Fund”) is an affiliate of Alt Assets, Inc. and the Fund has conducted a private placement offering under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Fund may invest in one, several, or all of the alternative asset classes that Alt Assets, Inc. publishes content about on its site. Any of the Fund’s investments that have positive designations on the Alt Assets, Inc. site are purely coincidental, as the Fund is actively managed and guided by its own investment parameters, as summarized in the relevant private placement memorandum. Alternative investing involves a high degree of risk, including complete loss of principal and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The newsletter may contain affiliate links, meaning that Alts.co and its associated entities may receive compensation for referring customers to the noted companies. We recommend seeking the advice of a financial professional before you make any investment in an alternative asset class or any associated entities, and we accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage you may incur.
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