There's a stock sitting at $9.13 right now that was trading above $25 thirteen months ago. It manages over $300 billion in assets. It pays a nearly 10% dividend. Short interest just hit an all-time record. And it owns more than 100 data centers powering the AI revolution.

It's called Blue Owl Capital (OWL), and right now it might be the most hated stock on Wall Street.

Today we're breaking down why it got crushed, what the bears are missing, and whether this is the kind of "blood in the streets" moment that creates generational entries. We have a strong opinion on this one.

More below.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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Thirteen months ago, Blue Owl was a Wall Street darling. The stock hit $26.68 in January 2025 after completing its acquisition of IPI Partners, giving it 82 data centers with 2.2 gigawatts of capacity globally. Analysts loved it: Blue Owl had evolved from private credit shop to major landlord for the AI boom.

Then came a perfect storm. Oil surged. Credit markets tightened. The Iran war broke out on February 28. And redemption requests at Blue Owl’s OBDC II fund surged 200% as panicked retail investors rushed for the exits.

Blue Owl was forced to gate the $1.6 billion fund, stopping people from getting their money out (though they did pay everyone 30% back immediately and are paying out the rest in quarterly installments). The narrative flipped overnight from "growth story" to "liquidity crisis." Short interest hit an all-time record. And the stock is now down 63% from its peak.

However, in the same month they gated the fund, Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion of loans to four institutional buyers at 99.7 cents on the dollar, essentially full price. When a company is in real trouble, their loans sell at 60, 70, 80 cents. Blue Owl's sold at 99.7.

And look at who was buying: CalPERS (California's public pension fund, the largest in the US), two of Canada's biggest pension systems, and a major insurance company. These aren't retail investors gambling on a rebound. These are some of the most conservative, risk-averse pools of capital on the planet, the kind of buyers who spend months doing due diligence before writing a check. They looked at Blue Owl's loan book, which spans 128 companies across 27 industries and is 97% backed by first-priority claims on borrower assets, and they paid full price for it during a war.

That's not usually what happens when the underlying business is broken… it’s more so what happens when a stock price has completely decoupled from reality.

The key here is that Blue Owl’s fundraising machine never stopped. They raised a record $56 billion in 2025. AUM hit $307 billion. These are locked-up, long-duration commitments that generate management fees whether the stock is $25 or $9.

The AI infrastructure play is real. 100+ data center assets across 30 markets. A $7 billion Digital Infrastructure Fund. Primary investor behind Oracle's $15 billion Abilene data center. As long as the world needs AI compute, Blue Owl collects rent.

The dividend pays you to wait. At $0.90/share annually, OWL yields nearly 10% with an investment-grade credit rating and fee-related earnings that grew 22% last quarter.

Also, Blue Owl has risen into AltIndex’s top 10 stocks this week.

Stopping investors from getting their money out of a fund like OBDC II is a cardinal sin in wealth management. Advisors have long memories, and rebuilding the retail distribution channel could take a while. And Blue Owl's borrowers are still paying high floating rates; if earnings can't outrun interest expenses, real defaults could follow.

But the market is pricing OWL like the loan book is about to blow up. CalPERS just paid 99.7 cents on the dollar for $1.4 billion of it. When one of the world's largest pension funds is on the other side of your trade, it's worth asking who's more likely to be right.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

Stocks surged on Tuesday after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled openness to negotiations, offering the first real sign the regime may be willing to end the war.

Oil plunged on the news. Brent crude fell 2.9% to around $104/barrel, while WTI dropped 2% to $101. Meanwhile, US gas prices crossed $4 per gallon nationally.

Gold bounced 3% to above $4,670 per ounce after President Trump said the war "won't last much longer." Still, the metal posted its worst month since 2013 after a brutal flush. Wall Street sees the drop as temporary.

Warren Buffett is still wheeling and dealing. The 95-year-old told CNBC he's still making investments for Berkshire Hathaway, and just bought $17 billion in Treasury bills this week. He also made one "tiny" new purchase but wouldn't spill the details.

Nike beat earnings estimates with EPS of $0.35 vs. $0.31 expected, showing signs its turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill is gaining traction. Wholesale revenue jumped 5% while Converse cratered 35%. Shares slipped 3% after hours anyway.

North Korean hackers breached Axios, the behind-the-scenes software that powers everything from banking apps to websites. Google says the attackers added malware to a Monday update that could steal login credentials. The malicious code has been removed, but the reach was potentially millions of environments.

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Cheers,
Brandon & Blake of Invested Inc